feat: initial paper update remarks

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2026-03-23 21:47:45 +01:00
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4 changed files with 41 additions and 19 deletions

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@@ -17,6 +17,10 @@
"chapters/05-discussion" "chapters/05-discussion"
"chapters/06-conclusion" "chapters/06-conclusion"
"article" "article"
"art12")) "art12")
(LaTeX-add-labels
"app:compute_budget"
"tab:compute_derivation"
"app:whoclicked_card"))
:latex) :latex)

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@@ -94,7 +94,8 @@ where $\mathbb{E}[P]$ is the expected price charged by the policy and $\underlin
We now formally demonstrate that standard dynamic pricing mechanisms are not incentive-compatible with high-frequency agentic traffic. As the number of independent competitive agents $N$ querying the system grows, the platform's ability to sustain a COI vanishes. We now formally demonstrate that standard dynamic pricing mechanisms are not incentive-compatible with high-frequency agentic traffic. As the number of independent competitive agents $N$ querying the system grows, the platform's ability to sustain a COI vanishes.
A fundamental assumption for our claim lies in the alignment of the AI agent through its prompt which has been demonstrated by \cite{fish_algorithmic_2025} to cause strong collusive behavior under linguistic nudges. This assumption can be generalized to the human user asking the agent to research products with a minimizing objective. \paragraph{Assumption Scope}
The theorem and core experiments in this thesis assume a non-collusive independent-session setting: each agent queries prices independently and does not share sampled quotes across agents. Collusive coordination is outside the current proof scope and is treated as an extension scenario.
\begin{theorem}[COI Erosion in the Limit] \begin{theorem}[COI Erosion in the Limit]
Let $N$ be the number of independent, utility-maximizing agents querying the platform. Let $p_{(1)}$ be the first order statistic (minimum) of the prices offered to these agents. As $N \to \infty$, the Cost of Information converges to 0. Let $N$ be the number of independent, utility-maximizing agents querying the platform. Let $p_{(1)}$ be the first order statistic (minimum) of the prices offered to these agents. As $N \to \infty$, the Cost of Information converges to 0.
@@ -331,7 +332,7 @@ where $\mathcal{S}_e$ denotes the set of destination events that follow $e$ in t
To obtain this statistic, we aggregate transitions by triggering event $e$ and treat normalized outgoing probabilities as categorical distributions $P_e$ (human) and $Q_e$ (agent). We intersect shared event labels, then accumulate log-ratio contributions over shared destinations. Large contributions, including near-zero $Q_e(k)$ cases, identify transitions where one actor class is difficult to mimic. To obtain this statistic, we aggregate transitions by triggering event $e$ and treat normalized outgoing probabilities as categorical distributions $P_e$ (human) and $Q_e$ (agent). We intersect shared event labels, then accumulate log-ratio contributions over shared destinations. Large contributions, including near-zero $Q_e(k)$ cases, identify transitions where one actor class is difficult to mimic.
With these divergence features we train a contrastive model to estimate a weak agent probability $f(\tau)\in[0,1]$, which we later use as a weighting and control signal. With these divergence features we compute a weak agent probability $f(\tau')\in[0,1]$ directly from divergence gaps, which we later use as a weighting and control signal.
\subsubsection{Transition Probability Estimation} \subsubsection{Transition Probability Estimation}
@@ -375,10 +376,36 @@ Because contamination level $\alpha$ and demand shift are non-stationary online,
\Delta_A &= D_{KL}(\hat{\mathcal{T}}^\prime \parallel \bar{\mathcal{T}}_A) \Delta_A &= D_{KL}(\hat{\mathcal{T}}^\prime \parallel \bar{\mathcal{T}}_A)
\end{align} \end{align}
This yields two centroid-like heuristics that act as a session-level agent score in the engine. On a per-customer or use-case basis a similar study should be done in order to obtain ground truth behavior models for humans and agents and their specific interaction with a given products website. From these two divergences we define the gap score:
\begin{equation}
g(\tau') := \Delta_H(\tau') - \Delta_A(\tau').
\end{equation}
Positive values indicate trajectories farther from the human centroid and closer to the agent centroid.
We map this gap to a weak agent probability using a temperature-controlled logistic map:
\begin{equation}
f(\tau') := P(Y=A\mid\tau') = \operatorname{softmax}(-\Delta_A,-\Delta_H)_A = \sigma\left(\frac{\Delta_H-\Delta_A}{T}\right), \quad T>0.
\end{equation}
The session-level control signal injected into pricing is then
\begin{equation}
\hat{\alpha}(\tau') := f(\tau').
\end{equation}
This turns distinguishability into an operational control input in the engine. On a per-customer or use-case basis, a similar data collection and fitting process should be repeated to obtain domain-specific behavior kernels.
In implementation, we maintain an alternating game-history stack (our \textit{Limbo} stack) and execute it explicitly every epoch with exactly two transitions: first the platform publishes a price vector (leader move), then the market responds with trajectory-derived demand (follower move). In implementation, we maintain an alternating game-history stack (our \textit{Limbo} stack) and execute it explicitly every epoch with exactly two transitions: first the platform publishes a price vector (leader move), then the market responds with trajectory-derived demand (follower move).
To avoid notation drift, we separate two COI objects used for different purposes:
\begin{align}
\text{COI}_{\text{level}}(\pi) &:= \mathbb{E}[P]-\underline{p} \quad \text{(global reporting KPI)} \\
\text{COI}_{\text{leak}}(p,\tau') &:= f(\tau')\cdot \text{InfoValue}(p,\tau') \quad \text{(local control penalty)}
\end{align}
where $\text{COI}_{\text{level}}$ is evaluated at policy level and $\text{COI}_{\text{leak}}$ is evaluated per observed quote during training. We connect local leakage to expected global erosion with the operational assumption
\begin{equation}
\mathbb{E}[\Delta\text{COI}_{\text{level},t} \mid \tau_t'] \approx -\kappa\,\text{COI}_{\text{leak}}(p_t,\tau_t') + \xi_t,
\end{equation}
where $\kappa>0$ and $\xi_t$ is residual noise. This keeps theorem-level COI erosion (global, asymptotic) distinct from training-time leakage control (local surrogate).
% Mention discretized action space and the clipping and over shotting in continuous action spaces % Mention discretized action space and the clipping and over shotting in continuous action spaces
% Also talk about catastrophic economics, we add termination on bankrupcy or zero demand so market collaps % Also talk about catastrophic economics, we add termination on bankrupcy or zero demand so market collaps

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@@ -40,7 +40,12 @@ We report two preliminary stages before the full factorial interpretation. First
\subsubsection{The Impact of Contamination on Revenue} \subsubsection{The Impact of Contamination on Revenue}
A linear fit test on run-level data ($n=95$) shows a strong negative association between contamination and mean revenue. The fitted model mapping $\alpha \to \text{revenue}$ result in $t(93)=-8.2148$, $p=1.20\times 10^{-12}$, $R^2=0.4205$, and a 95\% confidence interval for the slope of $[-75{,}288.76,\,-45{,}975.13]$. In practical terms, a $+0.1$ increase in $\alpha$ corresponds to an average decrease of about $6{,}063$ revenue units within our environment. The contamination--revenue slope is estimated on a controlled cohort (single sweep, baseline policy, $n_{\text{products}}=100$, $n=95$). In this setting, contamination $\alpha$ is set exogenously by the experiment, so the slope identifies the within-sweep causal effect of contamination on revenue under fixed policy and environment settings. The fitted linear model is
\[
\widehat{y}=348{,}823.41-90{,}140.53\,\alpha,
\]
with $t(93)=-61.45$, $p=4.27\times10^{-77}$, $R^2=0.976$, and a 95\% confidence interval for the slope of $[-93{,}053.38,\,-87{,}227.68]$. Interpreted on the contamination grid, a $+0.1$ increase in $\alpha$ corresponds to an average revenue decrease of about $9{,}014$ units. A heteroskedasticity-robust check (HC1) preserves the same direction and significance ($t=-41.25$, $p=1.42\times10^{-61}$), supporting a large and statistically stable impact in this controlled regime.
\subsubsection{Large Scale Factorial Training} \subsubsection{Large Scale Factorial Training}
@@ -58,7 +63,6 @@ In our complete training runs we logged $\approx 180$ days of net compute time.
\caption{Revenue curves by contamination for the final cohort. The baseline remains above the defended curve in most cells, but the gap narrows in the high-contamination region.} \caption{Revenue curves by contamination for the final cohort. The baseline remains above the defended curve in most cells, but the gap narrows in the high-contamination region.}
\label{fig:final_focus_revenue_by_alpha} \label{fig:final_focus_revenue_by_alpha}
\end{figure} \end{figure}
% TODO: we need a similar plot which shows the COI preserved (what we gain across teh multiple conatmination leves, showing that the robust method has better COI optimization.)
\begin{figure}[ht] \begin{figure}[ht]
\centering \centering

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@@ -110,19 +110,6 @@ v4 & 64 & 275 & $64 \times 275 = 17{,}600$ \\
Converting to petaFLOPS: $160{,}320\;\text{TFLOPS} = 160.32\;\text{PFLOPS} \approx 160\;\text{PFLOPS}$. This is the theoretical peak under sustained BF16 arithmetic; realized throughput depends on memory bandwidth utilization and inter-chip communication overhead, but the figure serves as a useful upper bound for provisioning decisions. Converting to petaFLOPS: $160{,}320\;\text{TFLOPS} = 160.32\;\text{PFLOPS} \approx 160\;\text{PFLOPS}$. This is the theoretical peak under sustained BF16 arithmetic; realized throughput depends on memory bandwidth utilization and inter-chip communication overhead, but the figure serves as a useful upper bound for provisioning decisions.
\section{Slope-Test Verification: Revenue vs. Contamination}
\label{app:alpha_revenue_slope}
This appendix provides a compact verification of the slope result reported in the main results section. Using the same run-level pairs $x_i=\texttt{study/alpha}_i$ and $y_i=\texttt{eval/revenue\_mean}_i$ ($n=95$), we re-checked the ordinary least squares slope test in Python with standard test routines (SciPy two-sided $t$ test for the slope).
\[
\widehat{y}=326{,}878.57-60{,}631.95\,x,
\]
\[
t(93)=-8.2148,\qquad p=1.2038\times 10^{-12},\qquad R^2=0.4205,\qquad 95\%\,\text{CI}_{\beta_1}=[-75{,}288.76,\,-45{,}975.13].
\]
The Python verification reproduces the reported coefficients and inference values, confirming that the slope-test results are correct under standard methods.
\section{whoclickedit Dataset Card} \section{whoclickedit Dataset Card}
\label{app:whoclicked_card} \label{app:whoclicked_card}