diff --git a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/final_focus_alpha_deltas.csv b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/final_focus_alpha_deltas.csv index 32bbd73..84557d3 100644 --- a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/final_focus_alpha_deltas.csv +++ b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/final_focus_alpha_deltas.csv @@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ alpha,revenue_delta,revenue_delta_pct,reward_delta,reward_delta_pct,volatility_d 0.1,-14962.041501283413,-4.410637208586118,-14303.760282736213,-4.531344436782669,0.0011858665298920962,0.0,-0.004133727080174038 0.2,-16153.416666167905,-4.826514761457546,-15398.621298776357,-4.9418165571901715,0.00200624274016295,0.0,-0.0033201883450373615 0.3,-17294.9275360335,-5.382423616385397,-16544.91845114401,-5.533399709364953,-0.0011022484400295268,0.0,-0.0029151149203366505 -0.4,-19661.294346174283,-6.250307313590199,-18728.35578200908,-6.3953153560217535,3.582812967113658e-05,0.0,-0.0038123361988749577 +0.4,-19543.8750398212,-6.215299839915013,-18613.487687777204,-6.35858461426586,-2.7530592947980215e-05,0.0,-0.0038561140856475523 0.5,-16411.03168918495,-5.3630681206030015,-15638.77510066732,-5.4888928630525315,0.00015428950526953644,0.0,-0.00439661338956944 0.6,-14729.668247641937,-5.069964928178309,-13912.22417824401,-5.148827377884945,-0.002735776807082743,0.0,-0.004310129386364658 0.7,-21160.81910514756,-7.351404104505076,-20171.762105623755,-7.525169314210056,-0.0008903632602569461,0.0,-0.0026198461183787186 diff --git a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/final_focus_alpha_mode_summary.csv b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/final_focus_alpha_mode_summary.csv index 50051aa..9ab9a0c 100644 --- a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/final_focus_alpha_mode_summary.csv +++ b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/final_focus_alpha_mode_summary.csv @@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ alpha,mode,runs,revenue_mean,reward_mean,supra_mean,volatility_mean,coi_leakage_ 0.2,defended,35,318527.35122792586,296199.77820822067,0.0,0.07048630468445288,0.11265850300394666,137.2758153292305 0.3,baseline,30,321322.30327214615,299000.9636054795,0.0,0.07085669473747759,0.11527347603412934,136.4452630715689 0.3,defended,44,304027.37573611265,282456.0451543355,0.0,0.06975444629744806,0.11235836111379269,136.4704115371568 -0.4,baseline,33,314565.2423109539,292844.914432166,0.0,0.07031811881503117,0.11300307992768284,136.72547178046122 +0.4,baseline,33,314447.8230046008,292730.04633793415,0.0,0.07038147753765028,0.11304685781445543,136.70817144219887 0.4,defended,38,294903.9479647796,274116.55865015695,0.0,0.0703539469447023,0.10919074372880788,136.75671002806396 0.5,baseline,33,306000.80625751516,284916.7489847879,0.0,0.06938663916591635,0.11118137138243217,136.9528780620641 0.5,defended,35,289589.7745683302,269277.9738841206,0.0,0.06954092867118589,0.10678475799286273,136.65018588845163 diff --git a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/final_focus_headline_summary.json b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/final_focus_headline_summary.json index e257560..3ab4253 100644 --- a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/final_focus_headline_summary.json +++ b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/final_focus_headline_summary.json @@ -1,11 +1,14 @@ { - "bundle": "engine/studies/results/wandb_sweep_bundles/bundle_20260317_093826", + "bundle": "engine/studies/results/wandb_sweep_bundles/bundle_20260317_122818", "focus_cohort": "max_alpha_coverage", + "focus_sweep_id": "i88nw811", + "focus_run_count": 768, + "git_commit": "e62e842faad79b143f5555d187075e85c8926363", "alpha_cells": 11, "alpha_min": 0.0, "alpha_max": 1.0, - "mean_revenue_delta_pct": -4.787221975639986, - "mean_reward_delta_pct": -4.91730667541704, + "mean_revenue_delta_pct": -4.784039478033151, + "mean_reward_delta_pct": -4.913967517075595, "zone_summary": [ { "zone": "high_alpha_0_7_plus", @@ -18,10 +21,10 @@ { "zone": "low_alpha_below_0_7", "alpha_cells": 7, - "revenue_delta_pct_mean": -5.201949225367208, - "reward_delta_pct_mean": -5.324947138914036, - "coi_leakage_delta_mean": -0.0037041938968711296, - "volatility_delta_mean": 0.00011102505536893832 + "revenue_delta_pct_mean": -5.196948157699325, + "reward_delta_pct_mean": -5.319699890091765, + "coi_leakage_delta_mean": -0.003710447880695786, + "volatility_delta_mean": 0.00010197380928049306 } ] } diff --git a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/final_focus_zone_summary.csv b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/final_focus_zone_summary.csv index 224a022..7ae6bf5 100644 --- a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/final_focus_zone_summary.csv +++ b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/final_focus_zone_summary.csv @@ -1,3 +1,3 @@ zone,alpha_cells,revenue_delta_pct_mean,reward_delta_pct_mean,coi_leakage_delta_mean,volatility_delta_mean high_alpha_0_7_plus,4,-4.0614492886173466,-4.2039358642972955,-0.0018236753956396637,0.00026289072427068336 -low_alpha_below_0_7,7,-5.201949225367208,-5.324947138914036,-0.0037041938968711296,0.00011102505536893832 +low_alpha_below_0_7,7,-5.196948157699325,-5.319699890091765,-0.003710447880695786,0.00010197380928049306 diff --git a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/plots/final_focus_revenue_by_alpha.pdf b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/plots/final_focus_revenue_by_alpha.pdf index 343539e..0ec609b 100644 Binary files a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/plots/final_focus_revenue_by_alpha.pdf and b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/plots/final_focus_revenue_by_alpha.pdf differ diff --git a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/plots/final_focus_revenue_delta.pdf b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/plots/final_focus_revenue_delta.pdf index 157fc7a..5bbe561 100644 Binary files a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/plots/final_focus_revenue_delta.pdf and b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/plots/final_focus_revenue_delta.pdf differ diff --git a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/plots/final_focus_risk_deltas.pdf b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/plots/final_focus_risk_deltas.pdf index 9bbbf7a..422a816 100644 Binary files a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/plots/final_focus_risk_deltas.pdf and b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/plots/final_focus_risk_deltas.pdf differ diff --git a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/revenue_alpha_diagnostics.json b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/revenue_alpha_diagnostics.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..dc23990 --- /dev/null +++ b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/revenue_alpha_diagnostics.json @@ -0,0 +1,24 @@ +{ + "normality": { + "test": "jarque_bera", + "available": true, + "statistic": 362.38850707984324, + "p_value": 2.0339278125496517e-79 + }, + "heteroskedasticity": { + "test": "breusch_pagan", + "available": true, + "lm_stat": 6.0366025380616275, + "df": 1, + "p_value": 0.014012224810767138 + }, + "influence": { + "max_leverage": 0.03769234230180875, + "mean_leverage": 0.021052631578947392, + "high_leverage_threshold": 0.042105263157894736, + "high_leverage_count": 0, + "max_cooks_distance": 0.29121755538277183, + "high_cooks_threshold": 0.042105263157894736, + "high_cooks_count": 6 + } +} diff --git a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/revenue_alpha_filtered.csv b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/revenue_alpha_filtered.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f5b3176 --- /dev/null +++ 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+i88nw811,lusiana/capstone_tpu/i88nw811,fed0y4px,sweep/ppo/sb3/cpu/default/a0.7/baseline/s7777,finished,https://wandb.ai/lusiana/capstone_tpu/runs/fed0y4px,2026-03-16T08:13:55Z,7800.555020283,0,0,0,,0.7,100.0,0.0,0.05,True,True,baseline,286859.8032779717,267231.9932779717,273198.5349293896,254530.3349293896,0.0,0.0,0.0694378534785247,0.0,137.6169536272908,0.1086813731317916,254530.3349293896,baseline +i88nw811,lusiana/capstone_tpu/i88nw811,byifn20j,sweep/ppo/sb3/cpu/default/a0.4/baseline/s1337,finished,https://wandb.ai/lusiana/capstone_tpu/runs/byifn20j,2026-03-16T08:20:55Z,8108.199462596,0,0,0,,0.4,100.0,0.0,0.3,True,True,baseline,316543.04043212667,294899.01043212664,299980.59649797506,279386.7564979751,0.0,0.0,0.067603468946279,0.0,137.7846896269947,0.1128739206843639,279386.7564979751,baseline +i88nw811,lusiana/capstone_tpu/i88nw811,35rb8529,sweep/ppo/sb3/cpu/default/a0.5/baseline/s1337,finished,https://wandb.ai/lusiana/capstone_tpu/runs/35rb8529,2026-03-16T08:24:52Z,7749.649896228,0,0,0,,0.5,100.0,0.0,0.05,True,True,baseline,304711.516143744,283789.716143744,290536.18598250934,270609.3259825093,0.0,0.0,0.0700712626186499,0.0,137.43043602946972,0.1112796769387625,270609.3259825093,baseline +i88nw811,lusiana/capstone_tpu/i88nw811,foinu2r1,sweep/ppo/sb3/cpu/default/a0.5/baseline/s42,finished,https://wandb.ai/lusiana/capstone_tpu/runs/foinu2r1,2026-03-16T08:51:50Z,7924.351691656,0,0,0,,0.5,100.0,0.0,0.05,True,True,baseline,306631.1127310434,285624.6727310434,292140.0218133485,272205.32181334845,0.0,0.0,0.0706121906603894,0.0,137.48236407441985,0.112886126809283,272205.32181334845,baseline +i88nw811,lusiana/capstone_tpu/i88nw811,nsg7m2ud,sweep/ppo/sb3/cpu/default/a0.5/baseline/s1337,finished,https://wandb.ai/lusiana/capstone_tpu/runs/nsg7m2ud,2026-03-16T09:06:10Z,7732.794663489,0,0,0,,0.5,100.0,0.0,0.3,True,True,baseline,303325.5596877454,282520.29968774534,291965.65710567136,271937.69710567134,0.0,0.0,0.0686525035124021,0.0,137.57073544790862,0.1132342695408356,271937.69710567134,baseline +i88nw811,lusiana/capstone_tpu/i88nw811,gpririem,sweep/ppo/sb3/cpu/default/a0.2/baseline/s42,finished,https://wandb.ai/lusiana/capstone_tpu/runs/gpririem,2026-03-16T09:20:57Z,8532.119121611,0,0,0,,0.2,100.0,0.0,0.3,True,True,baseline,333463.32883383776,310606.38883383776,322375.37087837915,300349.6308783791,0.0,0.0,0.0694238399850746,0.0,137.6206723870474,0.1176551945750585,300349.6308783791,baseline +i88nw811,lusiana/capstone_tpu/i88nw811,9bmbalnk,sweep/ppo/sb3/cpu/default/a0.7/baseline/s1337,finished,https://wandb.ai/lusiana/capstone_tpu/runs/9bmbalnk,2026-03-16T10:05:49Z,7576.93090345,0,0,0,,0.7,100.0,0.0,0.15,True,True,baseline,285875.15518050164,266287.2051805016,274356.50146499986,255620.24146499988,0.0,0.0,0.0711188680417482,0.0,137.42722406640746,0.1099719716550294,255620.24146499988,baseline +i88nw811,lusiana/capstone_tpu/i88nw811,9ma76sch,sweep/ppo/sb3/cpu/default/a0.1/baseline/s1337,finished,https://wandb.ai/lusiana/capstone_tpu/runs/9ma76sch,2026-03-16T10:23:59Z,8544.8427845,0,0,0,,0.1,100.0,0.0,0.3,True,True,baseline,341404.1205957663,317885.0305957663,329505.50925893825,306817.3492589383,0.0,0.0,0.0685274095002656,0.0,137.33021724658855,0.1206998447923596,306817.3492589383,baseline +i88nw811,lusiana/capstone_tpu/i88nw811,cvrztiyb,sweep/ppo/sb3/cpu/default/a0.2/baseline/s42,finished,https://wandb.ai/lusiana/capstone_tpu/runs/cvrztiyb,2026-03-16T10:27:26Z,8353.396268583,0,0,0,,0.2,100.0,0.0,0.3,True,True,baseline,333463.32883383776,310606.38883383776,322375.37087837915,300349.6308783791,0.0,0.0,0.0694238399850746,0.0,137.6206723870474,0.1176551945750585,300349.6308783791,baseline +i88nw811,lusiana/capstone_tpu/i88nw811,7z9spcc6,sweep/ppo/sb3/cpu/default/a0/baseline/s7777,finished,https://wandb.ai/lusiana/capstone_tpu/runs/7z9spcc6,2026-03-16T10:29:46Z,8444.449882423,5,1004,1,,0.0,100.0,0.0,0.3,True,True,baseline,348861.1454509751,324713.0754509751,335967.6160126648,312660.3160126648,0.0,0.0,0.0674835742466741,0.0,136.8813175598437,0.118985751213389,312660.3160126648,baseline diff --git a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/revenue_alpha_fixed_effects.json b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/revenue_alpha_fixed_effects.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..53c6e23 --- /dev/null +++ b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/revenue_alpha_fixed_effects.json @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +{ + "n": 95, + "k": 2, + "dof": 93, + "df_t": 93, + "cov_type": "hc1", + "clusters": null, + "r2": 0.9759651432807543, + "adj_r2": 0.9757067039611925, + "sse": 1872600419.7223544, + "coefficients": [ + { + "name": "intercept", + "coef": 348823.4131652292, + "std_error": 1383.3660823209932, + "t_stat": 252.15553397115096, + "p_value": 0.0, + "ci95_low": 346076.3222890517, + "ci95_high": 351570.5040414067 + }, + { + "name": "alpha", + "coef": -90140.52744561416, + "std_error": 2185.134882447838, + "t_stat": -41.25169945785529, + "p_value": 0.0, + "ci95_low": -94479.77225976942, + "ci95_high": -85801.2826314589 + } + ] +} diff --git a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/revenue_alpha_per_sweep.csv b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/revenue_alpha_per_sweep.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9dfc53c --- /dev/null +++ b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/revenue_alpha_per_sweep.csv @@ -0,0 +1,2 @@ +sweep_id,n,alpha_coef,alpha_std_error,alpha_t_stat,alpha_p_value,alpha_ci95_low,alpha_ci95_high,r2 +i88nw811,95,-90140.52744561416,2185.134882447838,-41.25169945785529,0.0,-94479.77225976942,-85801.2826314589,0.9759651432807543 diff --git a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/revenue_alpha_sample_accounting.json b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/revenue_alpha_sample_accounting.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..689e768 --- /dev/null +++ b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/revenue_alpha_sample_accounting.json @@ -0,0 +1,37 @@ +{ + "bundle_dir": "/home/velocitatem/Documents/Projects/PHANTOM/engine/studies/results/wandb_sweep_bundles/bundle_20260317_122818", + "git_commit": "e62e842faad79b143f5555d187075e85c8926363", + "cohort_name": "original_n95_baseline_n100", + "filters": { + "sweep_id": [ + "i88nw811" + ], + "mode": "baseline", + "n_products": 100.0, + "eta_ux": 0.0, + "lambda_coi": null, + "alpha_min": 0.0, + "alpha_max": 1.0 + }, + "n_rows": 95, + "n_sweeps": 1, + "alpha_unique": [ + 0.0, + 0.1, + 0.2, + 0.3, + 0.4, + 0.5, + 0.6, + 0.7, + 0.8, + 0.9, + 1.0 + ], + "rows_by_sweep": { + "i88nw811": 95 + }, + "rows_by_mode": { + "baseline": 95 + } +} diff --git a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/revenue_alpha_simple_ols.json b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/revenue_alpha_simple_ols.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..74dc241 --- /dev/null +++ b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/generated/final/revenue_alpha_simple_ols.json @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +{ + "n": 95, + "k": 2, + "dof": 93, + "df_t": 93, + "cov_type": "iid", + "clusters": null, + "r2": 0.9759651432807543, + "adj_r2": 0.9757067039611925, + "sse": 1872600419.7223544, + "coefficients": [ + { + "name": "intercept", + "coef": 348823.4131652292, + "std_error": 860.7176431608721, + "t_stat": 405.2704344298337, + "p_value": 0.0, + "ci95_low": 347114.1985078009, + "ci95_high": 350532.6278226575 + }, + { + "name": "alpha", + "coef": -90140.52744561416, + "std_error": 1466.838282353916, + "t_stat": -61.452259959401054, + "p_value": 0.0, + "ci95_low": -93053.37756806448, + "ci95_high": -87227.67732316385 + } + ] +} diff --git a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/process_final_sweeps.py b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/process_final_sweeps.py index f874e2b..63270d1 100644 --- a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/process_final_sweeps.py +++ b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/process_final_sweeps.py @@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ from __future__ import annotations import argparse import json from pathlib import Path +import subprocess from typing import Any import matplotlib @@ -37,6 +38,20 @@ def _default_plot_dir(output_dir: Path) -> Path: return output_dir / "plots" +def _git_commit() -> str: + try: + result = subprocess.run( + ["git", "rev-parse", "HEAD"], + check=True, + text=True, + capture_output=True, + cwd=_project_root(), + ) + except Exception: + return "unknown" + return result.stdout.strip() + + def _truthy(value: Any) -> bool: if isinstance(value, bool): return value @@ -297,9 +312,16 @@ def _write_include(path: Path, figure_rel_path: str, width: str) -> Path: return path -def run(bundle_dir: Path, output_dir: Path, plot_dir: Path) -> list[Path]: +def run( + bundle_dir: Path, + output_dir: Path, + plot_dir: Path, + focus_sweep_id: str | None = None, +) -> list[Path]: all_runs = _load_runs(bundle_dir) - focus_id = _focus_sweep(all_runs) + focus_id = str(focus_sweep_id) if focus_sweep_id else _focus_sweep(all_runs) + if focus_id not in set(all_runs["sweep_id"].astype(str).unique()): + raise ValueError(f"Requested focus sweep_id not found: {focus_id}") focus_runs = all_runs[all_runs["sweep_id"] == focus_id].copy() alpha_mode = _alpha_mode_summary(focus_runs) deltas = _alpha_deltas(alpha_mode) @@ -324,6 +346,9 @@ def run(bundle_dir: Path, output_dir: Path, plot_dir: Path) -> list[Path]: headline = { "bundle": str(bundle_dir), "focus_cohort": "max_alpha_coverage", + "focus_sweep_id": focus_id, + "focus_run_count": int(len(focus_runs)), + "git_commit": _git_commit(), "alpha_cells": int(deltas["alpha"].nunique()) if not deltas.empty else 0, "alpha_min": float(deltas["alpha"].min()) if not deltas.empty else None, "alpha_max": float(deltas["alpha"].max()) if not deltas.empty else None, @@ -390,6 +415,7 @@ def main() -> None: parser.add_argument("--bundle-dir", type=Path, default=_default_bundle_dir()) parser.add_argument("--output-dir", type=Path, default=_default_output_dir()) parser.add_argument("--plot-dir", type=Path, default=None) + parser.add_argument("--focus-sweep-id", type=str, default=None) args = parser.parse_args() _configure_style() @@ -399,7 +425,10 @@ def main() -> None: else _default_plot_dir(args.output_dir) ) outputs = run( - bundle_dir=args.bundle_dir, output_dir=args.output_dir, plot_dir=plot_dir + bundle_dir=args.bundle_dir, + output_dir=args.output_dir, + plot_dir=plot_dir, + focus_sweep_id=args.focus_sweep_id, ) for path in outputs: print(path) diff --git a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/revenue_alpha_analysis.py b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/revenue_alpha_analysis.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f576880 --- /dev/null +++ b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/revenue_alpha_analysis.py @@ -0,0 +1,454 @@ +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import json +import subprocess +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Iterable + +import numpy as np +import pandas as pd +from scipy import stats + + +def _project_root() -> Path: + return Path(__file__).resolve().parents[5] + + +def _default_bundle_dir() -> Path: + base = _project_root() / "engine" / "studies" / "results" / "wandb_sweep_bundles" + bundles = sorted( + [path for path in base.glob("bundle_*") if path.is_dir()], + key=lambda path: path.stat().st_mtime, + reverse=True, + ) + if not bundles: + raise FileNotFoundError(f"No sweep bundle directories found in {base}") + return bundles[0] + + +def _bundle_dir_from_id(bundle_id: str) -> Path: + token = str(bundle_id).strip() + name = token if token.startswith("bundle_") else f"bundle_{token}" + path = ( + _project_root() + / "engine" + / "studies" + / "results" + / "wandb_sweep_bundles" + / name + ) + if not path.exists(): + raise FileNotFoundError(f"Bundle not found: {path}") + return path + + +def _default_output_dir() -> Path: + return Path(__file__).resolve().parent / "generated" / "final" + + +def _truthy(value: object) -> bool: + if isinstance(value, bool): + return value + if value is None: + return False + return str(value).strip().lower() in {"1", "true", "yes", "on"} + + +def _mode_of(row: pd.Series) -> str: + mode_hint = str(row.get("study_mode", "")).strip().lower() + if mode_hint in {"baseline", "no_robust"}: + return "baseline" + if mode_hint in {"defended", "robust"}: + return "defended" + if _truthy(row.get("baseline_mode")) or _truthy(row.get("no_robust")): + return "baseline" + return "defended" + + +def _coerce_numeric(frame: pd.DataFrame, columns: Iterable[str]) -> None: + for column in columns: + if column in frame.columns: + frame[column] = pd.to_numeric(frame[column], errors="coerce") + + +def _load_runs(bundle_dir: Path) -> pd.DataFrame: + path = bundle_dir / "runs_finished.csv" + if not path.exists(): + raise FileNotFoundError(f"Missing required file: {path}") + frame = pd.read_csv(path) + frame["mode"] = frame.apply(_mode_of, axis=1) + _coerce_numeric( + frame, + [ + "alpha", + "n_products", + "eta_ux", + "lambda_coi", + "eval_revenue_mean", + ], + ) + frame = frame[frame["mode"].isin({"baseline", "defended"})].copy() + return frame + + +def _get_git_commit() -> str: + try: + result = subprocess.run( + ["git", "rev-parse", "HEAD"], + check=True, + text=True, + capture_output=True, + cwd=_project_root(), + ) + except Exception: + return "unknown" + return result.stdout.strip() + + +def _apply_filters(frame: pd.DataFrame, args: argparse.Namespace) -> pd.DataFrame: + data = frame.copy() + if args.sweep_id: + allowed = {str(value) for value in args.sweep_id} + data = data[data["sweep_id"].astype(str).isin(allowed)] + if args.mode != "all": + data = data[data["mode"] == args.mode] + if args.n_products is not None: + data = data[data["n_products"] == float(args.n_products)] + if args.eta_ux is not None: + data = data[data["eta_ux"] == float(args.eta_ux)] + if args.lambda_coi is not None: + data = data[data["lambda_coi"] == float(args.lambda_coi)] + data = data[data["alpha"].notna() & data["eval_revenue_mean"].notna()] + data = data[data["alpha"] >= float(args.alpha_min)] + data = data[data["alpha"] <= float(args.alpha_max)] + return data.reset_index(drop=True) + + +def _design_matrix( + frame: pd.DataFrame, + *, + include_sweep_fixed_effects: bool, +) -> tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray, list[str]]: + y = frame["eval_revenue_mean"].to_numpy(dtype=float) + x_alpha = frame["alpha"].to_numpy(dtype=float) + columns = ["intercept", "alpha"] + blocks = [np.ones_like(x_alpha), x_alpha] + if include_sweep_fixed_effects: + dummies = pd.get_dummies( + frame["sweep_id"].astype(str), prefix="sweep", drop_first=True + ) + if not dummies.empty: + blocks.append(dummies.to_numpy(dtype=float).T) + columns.extend(dummies.columns.tolist()) + X = np.vstack(blocks).T + return X, y, columns + + +def _covariance_hc1(X: np.ndarray, residuals: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: + n, k = X.shape + xtx_inv = np.linalg.pinv(X.T @ X) + xr = X * residuals[:, None] + meat = xr.T @ xr + scale = float(n) / max(n - k, 1) + return scale * (xtx_inv @ meat @ xtx_inv) + + +def _covariance_cluster( + X: np.ndarray, residuals: np.ndarray, groups: pd.Series +) -> tuple[np.ndarray, int]: + xtx_inv = np.linalg.pinv(X.T @ X) + unique = pd.Series(groups).astype(str).dropna().unique().tolist() + g = len(unique) + n, k = X.shape + if g <= 1: + return _covariance_hc1(X, residuals), g + meat = np.zeros((k, k), dtype=float) + for value in unique: + mask = pd.Series(groups).astype(str).to_numpy() == value + Xg = X[mask] + ug = residuals[mask] + xu = Xg.T @ ug + meat += np.outer(xu, xu) + c = (g / (g - 1.0)) * ((n - 1.0) / max(n - k, 1.0)) + return c * (xtx_inv @ meat @ xtx_inv), g + + +def _fit_ols( + X: np.ndarray, + y: np.ndarray, + columns: list[str], + *, + cov_type: str, + groups: pd.Series | None = None, +) -> dict[str, object]: + n, k = X.shape + beta, _, _, _ = np.linalg.lstsq(X, y, rcond=None) + fitted = X @ beta + residuals = y - fitted + dof = max(n - k, 1) + sse = float(np.sum(residuals**2)) + y_centered = y - float(np.mean(y)) + sst = float(np.sum(y_centered**2)) + r2 = float(1.0 - sse / sst) if sst > 0 else 0.0 + adj_r2 = float(1.0 - (1.0 - r2) * ((n - 1.0) / max(n - k, 1.0))) + + if cov_type == "iid": + sigma2 = sse / dof + cov = sigma2 * np.linalg.pinv(X.T @ X) + df_t = dof + clusters = None + elif cov_type == "hc1": + cov = _covariance_hc1(X, residuals) + df_t = dof + clusters = None + elif cov_type == "cluster": + if groups is None: + raise ValueError("groups are required when cov_type='cluster'") + cov, clusters = _covariance_cluster(X, residuals, groups) + df_t = max(clusters - 1, 1) + else: + raise ValueError(f"Unsupported cov_type: {cov_type}") + + se = np.sqrt(np.clip(np.diag(cov), 0.0, np.inf)) + t_stats = np.divide(beta, se, out=np.zeros_like(beta), where=se > 0) + p_values = 2.0 * (1.0 - stats.t.cdf(np.abs(t_stats), df=df_t)) + t_crit = float(stats.t.ppf(0.975, df=df_t)) + ci_low = beta - t_crit * se + ci_high = beta + t_crit * se + + coef_rows = [] + for idx, name in enumerate(columns): + coef_rows.append( + { + "name": name, + "coef": float(beta[idx]), + "std_error": float(se[idx]), + "t_stat": float(t_stats[idx]), + "p_value": float(p_values[idx]), + "ci95_low": float(ci_low[idx]), + "ci95_high": float(ci_high[idx]), + } + ) + + return { + "n": int(n), + "k": int(k), + "dof": int(dof), + "df_t": int(df_t), + "cov_type": cov_type, + "clusters": int(clusters) if clusters is not None else None, + "r2": r2, + "adj_r2": adj_r2, + "sse": sse, + "coefficients": coef_rows, + "residuals": residuals, + "fitted": fitted, + "beta": beta, + } + + +def _diagnostics( + X: np.ndarray, y: np.ndarray, fit: dict[str, object] +) -> dict[str, object]: + residuals = np.asarray(fit["residuals"], dtype=float) + n, k = X.shape + if residuals.size < 8: + normality = {"test": "jarque_bera", "available": False} + else: + jb_stat, jb_p = stats.jarque_bera(residuals) + normality = { + "test": "jarque_bera", + "available": True, + "statistic": float(jb_stat), + "p_value": float(jb_p), + } + + if k <= 1: + hetero = {"test": "breusch_pagan", "available": False} + else: + u2 = residuals**2 + aux = _fit_ols(X, u2, [f"x{i}" for i in range(k)], cov_type="iid") + lm = float(len(u2) * float(aux["r2"])) + df_bp = k - 1 + p_bp = float(1.0 - stats.chi2.cdf(lm, df_bp)) + hetero = { + "test": "breusch_pagan", + "available": True, + "lm_stat": lm, + "df": int(df_bp), + "p_value": p_bp, + } + + xtx_inv = np.linalg.pinv(X.T @ X) + leverages = np.sum((X @ xtx_inv) * X, axis=1) + mse = float(np.sum(residuals**2) / max(n - k, 1)) + if mse <= 0: + cooks = np.zeros(n, dtype=float) + else: + denom = np.clip((1.0 - leverages) ** 2, 1e-10, np.inf) + cooks = ((residuals**2) / (k * mse)) * (leverages / denom) + + return { + "normality": normality, + "heteroskedasticity": hetero, + "influence": { + "max_leverage": float(np.max(leverages)) if leverages.size else 0.0, + "mean_leverage": float(np.mean(leverages)) if leverages.size else 0.0, + "high_leverage_threshold": float(2.0 * k / max(n, 1)), + "high_leverage_count": int(np.sum(leverages > (2.0 * k / max(n, 1)))), + "max_cooks_distance": float(np.max(cooks)) if cooks.size else 0.0, + "high_cooks_threshold": float(4.0 / max(n, 1)), + "high_cooks_count": int(np.sum(cooks > (4.0 / max(n, 1)))), + }, + } + + +def run(args: argparse.Namespace) -> list[Path]: + output_dir = Path(args.output_dir) + output_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + + runs = _load_runs(Path(args.bundle_dir)) + filtered = _apply_filters(runs, args) + if len(filtered) < 3: + raise ValueError("Filtered cohort must contain at least 3 rows") + if filtered["alpha"].nunique() < 2: + raise ValueError("Filtered cohort must contain at least 2 unique alpha values") + + filtered_csv = output_dir / "revenue_alpha_filtered.csv" + filtered.to_csv(filtered_csv, index=False) + + sample_accounting = { + "bundle_dir": str(Path(args.bundle_dir)), + "git_commit": _get_git_commit(), + "cohort_name": str(args.cohort_name), + "filters": { + "sweep_id": args.sweep_id, + "mode": args.mode, + "n_products": args.n_products, + "eta_ux": args.eta_ux, + "lambda_coi": args.lambda_coi, + "alpha_min": args.alpha_min, + "alpha_max": args.alpha_max, + }, + "n_rows": int(len(filtered)), + "n_sweeps": int(filtered["sweep_id"].nunique()), + "alpha_unique": sorted( + float(v) for v in filtered["alpha"].dropna().unique().tolist() + ), + "rows_by_sweep": filtered.groupby("sweep_id").size().astype(int).to_dict(), + "rows_by_mode": filtered.groupby("mode").size().astype(int).to_dict(), + } + sample_path = output_dir / "revenue_alpha_sample_accounting.json" + sample_path.write_text(json.dumps(sample_accounting, indent=2) + "\n") + + X_simple, y, cols_simple = _design_matrix( + filtered, include_sweep_fixed_effects=False + ) + fit_simple = _fit_ols(X_simple, y, cols_simple, cov_type="iid") + simple_path = output_dir / "revenue_alpha_simple_ols.json" + simple_path.write_text( + json.dumps( + { + k: v + for k, v in fit_simple.items() + if k not in {"residuals", "fitted", "beta"} + }, + indent=2, + ) + + "\n" + ) + + X_fe, y_fe, cols_fe = _design_matrix(filtered, include_sweep_fixed_effects=True) + cov_type = "cluster" if filtered["sweep_id"].nunique() > 1 else "hc1" + fit_fe = _fit_ols( + X_fe, y_fe, cols_fe, cov_type=cov_type, groups=filtered["sweep_id"] + ) + fe_path = output_dir / "revenue_alpha_fixed_effects.json" + fe_path.write_text( + json.dumps( + { + k: v + for k, v in fit_fe.items() + if k not in {"residuals", "fitted", "beta"} + }, + indent=2, + ) + + "\n" + ) + + per_sweep_rows: list[dict[str, float | str | int]] = [] + for sweep_id, group in filtered.groupby("sweep_id"): + if len(group) < 3 or group["alpha"].nunique() < 2: + continue + X_sw, y_sw, cols_sw = _design_matrix(group, include_sweep_fixed_effects=False) + fit_sw = _fit_ols(X_sw, y_sw, cols_sw, cov_type="hc1") + alpha_row = next( + row for row in fit_sw["coefficients"] if row["name"] == "alpha" + ) + per_sweep_rows.append( + { + "sweep_id": str(sweep_id), + "n": int(fit_sw["n"]), + "alpha_coef": float(alpha_row["coef"]), + "alpha_std_error": float(alpha_row["std_error"]), + "alpha_t_stat": float(alpha_row["t_stat"]), + "alpha_p_value": float(alpha_row["p_value"]), + "alpha_ci95_low": float(alpha_row["ci95_low"]), + "alpha_ci95_high": float(alpha_row["ci95_high"]), + "r2": float(fit_sw["r2"]), + } + ) + per_sweep_frame = pd.DataFrame(per_sweep_rows) + if not per_sweep_frame.empty: + per_sweep_frame = per_sweep_frame.sort_values("sweep_id").reset_index(drop=True) + per_sweep_path = output_dir / "revenue_alpha_per_sweep.csv" + per_sweep_frame.to_csv(per_sweep_path, index=False) + + fit_for_diagnostics = fit_fe if cov_type == "cluster" else fit_simple + X_for_diagnostics = X_fe if cov_type == "cluster" else X_simple + diagnostics = _diagnostics(X_for_diagnostics, y, fit_for_diagnostics) + diagnostics_path = output_dir / "revenue_alpha_diagnostics.json" + diagnostics_path.write_text(json.dumps(diagnostics, indent=2) + "\n") + + return [ + filtered_csv, + sample_path, + simple_path, + fe_path, + per_sweep_path, + diagnostics_path, + ] + + +def main() -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser( + description="Reproducible contamination-vs-revenue analysis from a sweep bundle" + ) + parser.add_argument("--bundle-dir", type=Path, default=None) + parser.add_argument("--bundle-id", type=str, default=None) + parser.add_argument("--output-dir", type=Path, default=_default_output_dir()) + parser.add_argument("--cohort-name", type=str, default="custom") + parser.add_argument("--sweep-id", action="append", default=[]) + parser.add_argument( + "--mode", choices=["all", "baseline", "defended"], default="all" + ) + parser.add_argument("--n-products", type=float, default=None) + parser.add_argument("--eta-ux", type=float, default=None) + parser.add_argument("--lambda-coi", type=float, default=None) + parser.add_argument("--alpha-min", type=float, default=0.0) + parser.add_argument("--alpha-max", type=float, default=1.0) + args = parser.parse_args() + + if args.bundle_id: + args.bundle_dir = _bundle_dir_from_id(args.bundle_id) + elif args.bundle_dir is None: + args.bundle_dir = _default_bundle_dir() + + outputs = run(args) + for path in outputs: + print(path) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/revenue_alpha_classic.py b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/revenue_alpha_classic.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a91f2f6 --- /dev/null +++ b/paper/src/chapters/figures/results/revenue_alpha_classic.py @@ -0,0 +1,63 @@ +from pathlib import Path + +import numpy as np +import pandas as pd +from scipy import stats + + +root = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[5] +runs = ( + root + / "engine/studies/results/wandb_sweep_bundles/bundle_20260317_122818/runs_finished.csv" +) + +df = pd.read_csv(runs) +df = df[ + (df["sweep_id"].astype(str) == "i88nw811") + & (df["study_mode"].astype(str) == "baseline") + & (pd.to_numeric(df["n_products"], errors="coerce") == 100.0) + & (pd.to_numeric(df["eta_ux"], errors="coerce") == 0.0) +].copy() + +alpha = pd.to_numeric(df["alpha"], errors="coerce") +revenue = pd.to_numeric(df["eval_revenue_mean"], errors="coerce") +mask = alpha.notna() & revenue.notna() +alpha = alpha[mask].to_numpy(dtype=float) +revenue = revenue[mask].to_numpy(dtype=float) + +if len(alpha) < 3 or np.unique(alpha).size < 2: + raise ValueError("Not enough data for regression") + +fit = stats.linregress(alpha, revenue) +n = len(alpha) +dof = n - 2 +t_stat = fit.slope / fit.stderr +p_val = 2.0 * stats.t.sf(abs(t_stat), df=dof) +r2 = fit.rvalue**2 +t_crit = stats.t.ppf(0.975, dof) +slope_ci = (fit.slope - t_crit * fit.stderr, fit.slope + t_crit * fit.stderr) + +x = np.column_stack([np.ones(n), alpha]) +beta = np.linalg.lstsq(x, revenue, rcond=None)[0] +resid = revenue - x @ beta +xtx_inv = np.linalg.pinv(x.T @ x) +meat = (x * resid[:, None]).T @ (x * resid[:, None]) +cov_hc1 = (n / (n - x.shape[1])) * (xtx_inv @ meat @ xtx_inv) +se_hc1 = np.sqrt(np.diag(cov_hc1)) +t_hc1 = beta[1] / se_hc1[1] +p_hc1 = 2.0 * stats.t.sf(abs(t_hc1), df=dof) +slope_ci_hc1 = (beta[1] - t_crit * se_hc1[1], beta[1] + t_crit * se_hc1[1]) + +print("Contamination-Revenue Slope") +print( + "cohort: bundle_20260317_122818, sweep=i88nw811, mode=baseline, n_products=100, eta_ux=0.0" +) +print(f"n={n}") +print(f"model: revenue = {fit.intercept:.2f} {fit.slope:+.2f} * alpha") +print( + f"OLS: t({dof})={t_stat:.2f}, p={p_val:.3e}, R^2={r2:.3f}, slope_95CI=[{slope_ci[0]:.2f}, {slope_ci[1]:.2f}]" +) +print( + f"HC1: t={t_hc1:.2f}, p={p_hc1:.3e}, slope_95CI=[{slope_ci_hc1[0]:.2f}, {slope_ci_hc1[1]:.2f}]" +) +print(f"effect: +0.1 alpha -> {0.1 * fit.slope:.2f} revenue units")