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updating docs and paper

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Daniel Rosel
2026-03-10 14:11:41 +01:00
parent ee32ab7d1d
commit be03b2d4d5
13 changed files with 415 additions and 0 deletions
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<!-- Soft Drop Shadow for Panels -->
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<feDropShadow dx="2" dy="4" stdDeviation="6" flood-color="#000000" flood-opacity="0.06"/>
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<!-- Arrowhead Marker -->
<marker id="arrow" viewBox="0 0 10 10" refX="8" refY="5" markerWidth="6" markerHeight="6" orient="auto-start-reverse">
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<!-- COLUMN DIVIDERS -->
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<line x1="1280" y1="60" x2="1280" y2="1020" stroke="#EAEAEA" stroke-width="2" stroke-dasharray="10,10"/>
<!-- ========================================================= -->
<!-- COLUMN 1: THE THREAT (COI & SATURATION) -->
<!-- ========================================================= -->
<text x="60" y="80" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-size="28" font-weight="bold" fill="#333333">1. The Vulnerability</text>
<line x1="60" y1="100" x2="580" y2="100" stroke="#DDDDDD" stroke-width="2"/>
<!-- Top: COI Bell Curve -->
<g transform="translate(60, 130)">
<text x="0" y="30" font-size="24" font-weight="bold" fill="#444">Cost of Information from First Principles</text>
<text x="0" y="70" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-style="italic" font-size="22" fill="#8C7A6B">P ~ π(τ)</text>
<text x="0" y="105" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-style="italic" font-size="22" fill="#8C7A6B"><tspan text-decoration="underline">p</tspan> = reservation price</text>
<text x="0" y="140" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-style="italic" font-size="22" fill="#8C7A6B">M = P - <tspan text-decoration="underline">p</tspan></text>
<!-- Bell Curve -->
<path d="M 40 340 C 140 340, 160 160, 260 160 C 360 160, 380 340, 480 340" stroke="#3AB09E" stroke-width="5" fill="none"/>
<line x1="40" y1="340" x2="500" y2="340" stroke="#333" stroke-width="2"/>
<!-- Markers p and E[P] -->
<line x1="150" y1="340" x2="150" y2="160" stroke="#E37862" stroke-width="2" stroke-dasharray="6,4"/>
<text x="150" y="375" font-family="Georgia" font-style="italic" font-size="22" fill="#E37862" text-anchor="middle">p</text>
<line x1="260" y1="340" x2="260" y2="160" stroke="#85B589" stroke-width="2" stroke-dasharray="6,4"/>
<text x="260" y="375" font-family="Georgia" font-style="italic" font-size="22" fill="#85B589" text-anchor="middle">E[P]</text>
<!-- COI Annotation -->
<line x1="150" y1="150" x2="260" y2="150" stroke="#E37862" stroke-width="2" marker-start="url(#arrow)" marker-end="url(#arrow)"/>
<text x="310" y="138" font-size="16" fill="#E37862" text-anchor="middle">average information rent</text>
<text x="310" y="118" font-family="Georgia" font-style="italic" font-size="22" fill="#E37862" font-weight="bold" text-anchor="middle">COI := E[P] - p</text>
</g>
<!-- Bottom: Agent Saturation -->
<g transform="translate(60, 580)">
<text x="0" y="30" font-size="24" font-weight="bold" fill="#444">Why COI Erodes with Agent Saturation</text>
<text x="0" y="75" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-style="italic" font-size="22" fill="#8C7A6B">p<tspan font-size="14" dy="5">(1)</tspan><tspan dy="-5"> = min(p</tspan><tspan font-size="14" dy="5">1</tspan><tspan dy="-5">, ..., p</tspan><tspan font-size="14" dy="5">N</tspan><tspan dy="-5">)</tspan></text>
<text x="0" y="115" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-style="italic" font-size="22" fill="#8C7A6B">P(p<tspan font-size="14" dy="5">(1)</tspan><tspan dy="-5"> > t) = [1 - F(t)]</tspan><tspan font-size="14" dy="-10">N</tspan></text>
<!-- Erosion Graph -->
<rect x="120" y="150" width="280" height="230" fill="#FFFFFF" filter="url(#shadow)" rx="8"/>
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<line x1="140" y1="350" x2="140" y2="170" stroke="#333" stroke-width="2"/>
<text x="260" y="375" font-size="16" font-style="italic" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle">F(t)</text>
<text x="120" y="260" font-size="16" font-style="italic" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" transform="rotate(-90 120 260)">[1 - F(t)]^N</text>
<!-- Curves -->
<path d="M 140 170 C 220 250, 300 320, 380 350" stroke="#4EA5D9" stroke-width="3" fill="none"/>
<text x="390" y="220" font-size="16" fill="#4EA5D9" font-weight="bold">N=1</text>
<path d="M 140 170 C 180 260, 240 330, 380 350" stroke="#85B589" stroke-width="3" fill="none"/>
<text x="390" y="250" font-size="16" fill="#85B589" font-weight="bold">N=4</text>
<path d="M 140 170 C 150 290, 180 340, 380 350" stroke="#E37862" stroke-width="3" fill="none"/>
<text x="390" y="280" font-size="16" fill="#E37862" font-weight="bold">N=16</text>
<text x="260" y="420" font-size="20" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle">As independent query count grows,</text>
<text x="260" y="445" font-size="20" fill="#E37862" font-weight="bold" text-anchor="middle">realizable markup collapses.</text>
</g>
<!-- ========================================================= -->
<!-- COLUMN 2: THE BEHAVIORAL SIGNAL -->
<!-- ========================================================= -->
<text x="700" y="80" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-size="28" font-weight="bold" fill="#333333">2. The Behavioral Signals</text>
<line x1="700" y1="100" x2="1220" y2="100" stroke="#DDDDDD" stroke-width="2"/>
<!-- Top: Transition Kernels -->
<g transform="translate(700, 130)">
<text x="0" y="30" font-size="24" font-weight="bold" fill="#444">From Session Paths to Transition Kernels</text>
<text x="0" y="75" font-size="20" fill="#85B589" font-weight="bold">human: start → view → detail → cart → purchase</text>
<text x="0" y="115" font-size="20" fill="#E37862" font-weight="bold">agent: start → view → detail → view → detail</text>
<text x="0" y="170" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-style="italic" font-size="24" fill="#8C7A6B">
P&#770;(s'|s) = <tspan font-size="18" dy="-12">N(s,s')</tspan> / <tspan font-size="18" dy="12">Σ N(s,k)</tspan>
</text>
<!-- Matrix Representation -->
<rect x="0" y="220" width="500" height="180" fill="#FFFFFF" filter="url(#shadow)" rx="8"/>
<text x="125" y="250" font-size="16" fill="#4EA5D9" text-anchor="middle">transition counts N(s,s')</text>
<text x="375" y="250" font-size="16" fill="#85B589" text-anchor="middle">normalized kernel T</text>
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<g transform="translate(45, 270)">
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<text x="80" y="20" font-family="monospace" font-size="14" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" textLength="142" lengthAdjust="spacingAndGlyphs">0.00 8.00 0.00 0.00</text>
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</g>
<text x="250" y="440" font-size="18" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle">Kernel shape is the compact behavioral signature used downstream.</text>
</g>
<!-- Bottom: Separability Distributions -->
<g transform="translate(700, 600)">
<text x="0" y="30" font-size="24" font-weight="bold" fill="#444">Separability into a Control Signal</text>
<text x="0" y="75" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-style="italic" font-size="22" fill="#8C7A6B">Δ<tspan font-size="16" dy="5">H</tspan><tspan dy="-5"> = D</tspan><tspan font-size="16" dy="5">KL</tspan><tspan dy="-5">(T&#770;' || T&#772;</tspan><tspan font-size="16" dy="5">H</tspan><tspan dy="-5">)</tspan></text>
<text x="0" y="115" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-style="italic" font-size="22" fill="#8C7A6B">Δ<tspan font-size="16" dy="5">A</tspan><tspan dy="-5"> = D</tspan><tspan font-size="16" dy="5">KL</tspan><tspan dy="-5">(T&#770;' || T&#772;</tspan><tspan font-size="16" dy="5">A</tspan><tspan dy="-5">)</tspan></text>
<text x="0" y="155" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-style="italic" font-size="24" fill="#8C7A6B">g = Δ<tspan font-size="16" dy="5">H</tspan><tspan dy="-5"> - Δ</tspan><tspan font-size="16" dy="5">A</tspan></text>
<!-- Curves -->
<g transform="translate(80, 160)">
<line x1="0" y1="200" x2="360" y2="200" stroke="#333" stroke-width="2"/>
<text x="180" y="235" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-style="italic" font-size="22" text-anchor="middle">g = Δ<tspan font-size="16" dy="5">H</tspan><tspan dy="-5"> - Δ</tspan><tspan font-size="16" dy="5">A</tspan></text>
<!-- Human Curve -->
<path d="M 0 200 C 50 200, 80 40, 130 40 C 180 40, 210 200, 260 200" stroke="#4EA5D9" stroke-width="5" fill="none"/>
<text x="70" y="110" font-size="22" fill="#4EA5D9" font-weight="bold">human</text>
<!-- Agent Curve -->
<path d="M 100 200 C 150 200, 180 40, 230 40 C 280 40, 310 200, 360 200" stroke="#E37862" stroke-width="5" fill="none"/>
<text x="290" y="110" font-size="22" fill="#E37862" font-weight="bold">agent</text>
<!-- Decision Boundary -->
<line x1="180" y1="200" x2="180" y2="10" stroke="#999" stroke-width="2" stroke-dasharray="8,5"/>
<text x="180" y="-5" font-size="16" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle">decision boundary</text>
<circle cx="210" cy="200" r="6" fill="#ECA233"/>
<text x="210" y="180" font-family="Georgia" font-style="italic" font-size="20" fill="#ECA233" text-anchor="middle">g_obs</text>
<text x="180" y="280" font-size="18" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle">Positive gap shifts score toward agent traffic.</text>
</g>
</g>
<!-- ========================================================= -->
<!-- COLUMN 3: THE SOLUTION (CONTAMINATION & DR-RL) -->
<!-- ========================================================= -->
<text x="1340" y="80" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-size="28" font-weight="bold" fill="#333333">3. Robust Control &amp; Contamination</text>
<line x1="1340" y1="100" x2="1860" y2="100" stroke="#DDDDDD" stroke-width="2"/>
<!-- Top: Contamination Generator -->
<g transform="translate(1340, 130)">
<text x="0" y="30" font-size="24" font-weight="bold" fill="#444">Contamination Generator G(α)</text>
<!-- Boxes -->
<rect x="20" y="70" width="200" height="50" fill="#D0E5E0" filter="url(#shadow)" rx="6"/>
<text x="120" y="100" font-size="18" fill="#222" text-anchor="middle">labeled human sessions</text>
<rect x="280" y="70" width="200" height="50" fill="#EAD0C8" filter="url(#shadow)" rx="6"/>
<text x="380" y="100" font-size="18" fill="#222" text-anchor="middle">synthetic agent sessions</text>
<!-- Arrows -->
<line x1="120" y1="130" x2="200" y2="180" stroke="#888" stroke-width="3" marker-end="url(#arrow-dark)"/>
<line x1="380" y1="130" x2="300" y2="180" stroke="#888" stroke-width="3" marker-end="url(#arrow-dark)"/>
<!-- Mixed Batch -->
<rect x="150" y="190" width="200" height="50" fill="#F4E9CD" filter="url(#shadow)" rx="6"/>
<text x="250" y="220" font-size="18" fill="#222" text-anchor="middle">mixed batch for training</text>
<!-- Alpha Bar -->
<text x="250" y="275" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-size="20" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle">alpha = 0.33</text>
<rect x="50" y="290" width="268" height="30" fill="#4EA5D9"/>
<rect x="318" y="290" width="132" height="30" fill="#E37862"/>
<text x="184" y="340" font-size="18" fill="#4EA5D9" text-anchor="middle">human share (1-α)</text>
<text x="384" y="340" font-size="18" fill="#E37862" text-anchor="middle">agent share (α)</text>
</g>
<!-- Bottom: Distributionally Robust Control -->
<g transform="translate(1340, 600)">
<text x="0" y="30" font-size="24" font-weight="bold" fill="#444">Distributionally Robust Control Layer</text>
<text x="0" y="80" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-style="italic" font-size="22" fill="#8C7A6B">
π* = arg max<tspan font-size="16" dy="5">π</tspan> min<tspan font-size="16" dy="0">Q ∈ U<tspan font-size="12" dy="5">ε</tspan></tspan>
<tspan dy="-10"> E</tspan><tspan font-size="16" dy="5">d ~ Q</tspan>
<tspan dy="-5">[ R(p,d) - λ COI</tspan><tspan font-size="16" dy="5">leak</tspan><tspan dy="-5">(p,τ') ]</tspan>
</text>
<!-- Ambiguity Ball -->
<g transform="translate(140, 260)">
<line x1="-130" y1="0" x2="130" y2="0" stroke="#CCC" stroke-width="2"/>
<line x1="0" y1="-130" x2="0" y2="130" stroke="#CCC" stroke-width="2"/>
<circle cx="0" cy="0" r="110" stroke="#C4A45B" stroke-width="4" fill="rgba(196,164,91,0.06)"/>
<text x="-95" y="-120" font-family="Georgia" font-style="italic" font-size="24" fill="#C4A45B">U<tspan font-size="16" dy="5">ε</tspan></text>
<!-- Points -->
<circle cx="0" cy="0" r="7" fill="#4EA5D9"/>
<text x="12" y="24" font-family="Georgia" font-style="italic" font-size="22" fill="#4EA5D9">P&#770;<tspan font-size="14" dy="5">N</tspan></text>
<circle cx="-60" cy="-40" r="7" fill="#E37862"/>
<text x="-140" y="-50" font-family="Georgia" font-style="italic" font-size="18" fill="#E37862">worst-case Q*</text>
<circle cx="50" cy="-70" r="6" fill="#85B589"/>
<circle cx="70" cy="50" r="6" fill="#85B589"/>
<circle cx="-40" cy="80" r="6" fill="#85B589"/>
</g>
<!-- Process Steps -->
<g transform="translate(320, 140)">
<rect x="0" y="0" width="220" height="45" fill="#FDEFEF" filter="url(#light-shadow)" rx="6"/>
<text x="110" y="28" font-size="16" fill="#E37862" font-weight="bold" text-anchor="middle">inner min picks Q*</text>
<line x1="110" y1="55" x2="110" y2="85" stroke="#999" stroke-width="2" marker-end="url(#arrow-dark)"/>
<rect x="0" y="95" width="220" height="45" fill="#F4E9CD" filter="url(#light-shadow)" rx="6"/>
<text x="110" y="123" font-size="16" fill="#9E8033" font-weight="bold" text-anchor="middle">sample demand from Q*</text>
<line x1="110" y1="150" x2="110" y2="180" stroke="#999" stroke-width="2" marker-end="url(#arrow-dark)"/>
<rect x="0" y="190" width="220" height="45" fill="#E6F2ED" filter="url(#light-shadow)" rx="6"/>
<text x="110" y="218" font-size="16" fill="#428062" font-weight="bold" text-anchor="middle">outer max updates policy</text>
</g>
<text x="250" y="440" font-size="18" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle">Reward is evaluated on demand drawn from Q*, then used for the policy step.</text>
</g>
</svg>
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paper/defense/manim/scenes.py
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@@ -1397,6 +1397,171 @@ class TakeawayScene(Scene):
self.wait(1.0)
class ThesisBannerPosterScene(Scene):
def construct(self) -> None:
title = Text("PHANTOM", font_size=72, weight="BOLD", color=INK).to_edge(UP)
subtitle = Text(
"Pricing Heuristics Against Non-human Transaction Orchestration",
font_size=24,
color=GREY_B,
).next_to(title, DOWN, buff=0.05)
coi_axes = Axes(
x_range=[0, 1, 0.2],
y_range=[0, 1, 0.2],
x_length=3.15,
y_length=1.75,
tips=False,
axis_config={"stroke_width": 1.8, "color": AXIS_INK},
)
coi_n1 = coi_axes.plot(
lambda x: (1 - x) ** 1,
x_range=[0, 1],
color=BLUE_D,
stroke_width=4,
)
coi_n8 = coi_axes.plot(
lambda x: (1 - x) ** 8,
x_range=[0, 1],
color=ORANGE,
stroke_width=4,
)
coi_hint = Text(
"Order-statistic tail compresses as query count grows", font_size=15
)
coi_hint.set_color(GREY_B).next_to(coi_axes, DOWN, buff=0.06)
coi_title = Text("1) COI erosion", font_size=23, weight="BOLD", color=ORANGE)
coi_body = VGroup(coi_axes, coi_n1, coi_n8, coi_hint)
coi_group = VGroup(coi_title, coi_body).arrange(DOWN, buff=0.08)
coi_frame = SurroundingRectangle(coi_group, color=ORANGE, buff=0.14)
coi_frame.set_fill(color=ORANGE, opacity=0.05)
coi_panel = VGroup(coi_frame, coi_group)
gap_axes = Axes(
x_range=[-8, 8, 2],
y_range=[0.0, 0.2, 0.05],
x_length=3.15,
y_length=1.75,
tips=False,
axis_config={"stroke_width": 1.8, "color": AXIS_INK},
)
gap_h = gap_axes.plot(
lambda x: normal_pdf(x, -3.35, 2.67),
x_range=[-8, 8],
color=BLUE_D,
stroke_width=4,
)
gap_a = gap_axes.plot(
lambda x: normal_pdf(x, 1.65, 2.83),
x_range=[-8, 8],
color=RED_C,
stroke_width=4,
)
gap_boundary = DashedLine(
gap_axes.c2p(0, 0),
gap_axes.c2p(0, 0.17),
color=GREY_B,
stroke_width=2,
)
gap_hint = Text(
"Gap score g = Delta_H - Delta_A drives alpha-hat", font_size=15
)
gap_hint.set_color(GREY_B).next_to(gap_axes, DOWN, buff=0.06)
gap_title = Text(
"2) Behavioral separability", font_size=23, weight="BOLD", color=GREEN_C
)
gap_body = VGroup(gap_axes, gap_h, gap_a, gap_boundary, gap_hint)
gap_group = VGroup(gap_title, gap_body).arrange(DOWN, buff=0.08)
gap_frame = SurroundingRectangle(gap_group, color=GREEN_C, buff=0.14)
gap_frame.set_fill(color=GREEN_C, opacity=0.05)
gap_panel = VGroup(gap_frame, gap_group)
ctrl_title = Text(
"3) Robust pricing control", font_size=23, weight="BOLD", color=HIGHLIGHT
)
ctrl_signal = MathTex(r"\hat\alpha(\tau')=\sigma(\beta g)", font_size=31)
ctrl_policy = MathTex(
r"\pi^*=\arg\max_\pi\min_{Q\in\mathcal U_\epsilon}\mathbb E[r]",
font_size=29,
color=HIGHLIGHT,
)
ctrl_steps = VGroup(
card(
"estimate contamination from behavior",
color=GREEN_C,
width=4.0,
height=0.72,
font_size=16,
),
card(
"optimize price policy under uncertainty",
color=ORANGE,
width=4.0,
height=0.72,
font_size=16,
),
).arrange(DOWN, buff=0.18)
ctrl_arrow = Arrow(
ctrl_steps[0].get_bottom(),
ctrl_steps[1].get_top(),
buff=0.06,
color=AXIS_INK,
stroke_width=3,
)
ctrl_body = VGroup(ctrl_signal, ctrl_policy, ctrl_steps, ctrl_arrow).arrange(
DOWN, buff=0.14
)
ctrl_group = VGroup(ctrl_title, ctrl_body).arrange(DOWN, buff=0.08)
ctrl_frame = SurroundingRectangle(ctrl_group, color=HIGHLIGHT, buff=0.14)
ctrl_frame.set_fill(color=HIGHLIGHT, opacity=0.05)
ctrl_panel = VGroup(ctrl_frame, ctrl_group)
panels = VGroup(coi_panel, gap_panel, ctrl_panel).arrange(RIGHT, buff=0.3)
panels.scale(0.92).next_to(subtitle, DOWN, buff=0.28)
web = card("web sessions", color=BLUE_D, width=2.2, height=0.7, font_size=17)
kafka = card(
"quote + event logs", color=HIGHLIGHT, width=2.6, height=0.7, font_size=17
)
kernel = card(
"transition kernels", color=GREEN_C, width=2.5, height=0.7, font_size=17
)
policy = card(
"robust policy", color=ORANGE, width=2.2, height=0.7, font_size=17
)
flow_nodes = VGroup(web, kafka, kernel, policy).arrange(RIGHT, buff=0.22)
flow_nodes.to_edge(DOWN, buff=0.52)
flow_arrows = VGroup(
Arrow(web.get_right(), kafka.get_left(), buff=0.05, stroke_width=2.8),
Arrow(kafka.get_right(), kernel.get_left(), buff=0.05, stroke_width=2.8),
Arrow(kernel.get_right(), policy.get_left(), buff=0.05, stroke_width=2.8),
)
status = VGroup(
Text("Mann-Whitney p = 0.0006", font_size=19, color=GREEN_C),
Text("Pairwise robust wins: 13/40 objective, 16/40 revenue", font_size=19),
).arrange(DOWN, buff=0.06)
status[1].set_color(GREY_B)
status.next_to(flow_nodes, UP, buff=0.15)
footer = Text(
"From mechanism failure to an implementable defense loop",
font_size=25,
color=HIGHLIGHT,
).next_to(flow_nodes, DOWN, buff=0.13)
self.add(
title,
subtitle,
panels,
flow_nodes,
flow_arrows,
status,
footer,
)
self.wait(0.1)
SCENE_ORDER = [
"DefenseOpening",
"CardMarketAnalogyScene",
@@ -1410,3 +1575,7 @@ SCENE_ORDER = [
"ObjectiveAndResultsScene",
"TakeawayScene",
]
POSTER_SCENES = ["ThesisBannerPosterScene"]
AVAILABLE_SCENES = SCENE_ORDER + POSTER_SCENES