mirror of
https://github.com/velocitatem/PHANTOM.git
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534 lines
24 KiB
Python
534 lines
24 KiB
Python
import gymnasium as gym
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from gymnasium import spaces
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import numpy as np
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from dataclasses import dataclass
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import pandas as pd
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from types import SimpleNamespace
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from typing import Optional, Dict, Any, List, Tuple
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from lib.separability import load_artifacts, score_session, estimate_alpha
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from sim.rl.behavior_loader.models import AgentBehaviorModel, BehaviorModel
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# "learner" agent learning to optimize pricing
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# "agent" part of environment creating demand signals that learner processes
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base_dir = "/home/velocitatem/Documents/Projects/PHANTOM/experiments"
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human_dir, agent_dir = f"{base_dir}/collected_data/", f"{base_dir}/agents/collected_data/"
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@dataclass
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class BusinessLogicConstraints():
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max_price_adjustment: float = 0.30
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system_max_price: float = 500.0
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system_min_price: float = 1.0
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product_catalogue_size: int = 100
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episode_length: int = 200
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sessions_per_step: int = 250
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agent_share: float = 0.25
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agent_recon_multiplier: float = 6.0
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agent_purchase_probability: float = 0.20
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coi_strength: float = 0.25
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coi_threshold: float = 4.0
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coi_sigmoid_temp: float = 1.25
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base_human_demand: float = 0.08
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base_agent_demand: float = 0.05
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human_price_elasticity: float = -1.2 # assumptions here
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agent_price_elasticity: float = -0.6
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w_agent_loss: float = 1.0
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w_volatility: float = 5.0
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w_estimation_error: float = 0.25
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seed: int = 7
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def _sigmoid(x: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
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return 1.0 / (1.0 + np.exp(-x))
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EVENT_PAGE_MAP = {
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"session_start": "/",
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"view_item_page": "/products",
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"learn_more_about_item": "/products/details",
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"add_item_to_cart": "/cart",
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"purchase_complete": "/checkout",
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"session_end": "/checkout/success",
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}
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class BehavioralProfile:
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"""Synthetic Markov profile used to generate interaction sessions."""
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# TODO: a lot of this is duplicated from models.py - refactor to share code better
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def __init__(self, actor: str, purchase_probs: np.ndarray):
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self.actor = actor
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self.purchase_probs = np.clip(purchase_probs, 0.0, 0.95)
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self.states = [
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"session_start",
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"view_item_page",
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"learn_more_about_item",
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"add_item_to_cart",
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"purchase_complete",
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"session_end",
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]
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# base transition structure (human default)
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self.transitions : Dict[str, Dict[str, float]];
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model = AgentBehaviorModel(agent_dir) if actor == "agents" else BehaviorModel(human_dir)
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self.transitions = # TODO similarly to model.build_MDP_event_transitions() in models.py buidl the dict
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def _transition_probs(self, state: str, product_idx: int) -> Dict[str, float]:
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probs = dict(self.transitions.get(state, {"session_end": 1.0}))
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if state == "add_item_to_cart":
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base = probs.get("purchase_complete", 0.0)
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demand_factor = float(self.purchase_probs[int(product_idx)])
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if self.actor == "agents":
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demand_factor *= 0.7
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adjusted = np.clip(base * 0.5 + demand_factor * 0.5, 0.0, 0.95)
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remainder = max(1e-6, 1.0 - adjusted)
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other_total = sum(v for k, v in probs.items() if k != "purchase_complete")
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scale = remainder / max(other_total, 1e-6)
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for key in probs:
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if key == "purchase_complete":
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probs[key] = adjusted
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else:
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probs[key] = probs[key] * scale
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total = sum(probs.values())
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if total <= 0:
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return {"session_end": 1.0}
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return {state: val / total for state, val in probs.items()}
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def sample_session(
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self,
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rng: np.random.Generator,
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session_id: str,
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prices: np.ndarray,
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unit_cost: np.ndarray,
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) -> Tuple[List[Dict[str, Any]], List[SimpleNamespace]]:
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"""Generate a single session trajectory."""
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# TODO: this is similar to the sample trajectory method in models.
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# we also have to respect business constraints which constrain the lipshitz continuity of the transitions and prices
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# we must apply constraints on purcahses not to let the platform offer prices under the cost of a productid
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events: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
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feature_events: List[SimpleNamespace] = []
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state = "session_start"
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t = 0.0
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product_idx = int(rng.integers(0, len(prices)))
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product_id = f"product-{product_idx:04d}"
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while state != "session_end" and len(events) < 40:
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if state != "session_start":
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price = float(prices[product_idx])
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row = {
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"session_id": session_id,
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"actor": "agent" if self.actor == "agents" else "human",
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"eventName": state,
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"product_idx": product_idx,
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"productId": product_id,
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"price_offered": price,
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"price_paid": 0.0,
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"page": EVENT_PAGE_MAP.get(state, "/"),
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"ts": t,
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"unit_cost": float(unit_cost[product_idx]),
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"base_price": float(prices[product_idx]),
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}
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if state == "purchase_complete":
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noise = float(rng.normal(0.0, 0.015))
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row["price_paid"] = max(price * (1.0 + noise), row["unit_cost"])
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events.append(row)
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feature_events.append(
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SimpleNamespace(
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eventName=row["eventName"],
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page=row["page"],
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productId=row["productId"],
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ts=row["ts"],
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)
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)
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transitions = self._transition_probs(state, product_idx)
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next_state = rng.choice(list(transitions.keys()), p=list(transitions.values()))
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dwell = max(0.5, rng.gamma(shape=2.0, scale=1.0)) # TODO: should use params from the profile data
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t += dwell
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state = next_state
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return events, feature_events
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def _load_behavioral_profile(actor: str, demand_forcing: np.ndarray) -> BehavioralProfile:
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"""returns a behavioral profile for generating synthetic sessions
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actor: 'humans' or 'agents'
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demand_forcing: per-product purchase probabilities used to weight interactions
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"""
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return BehavioralProfile(actor, demand_forcing)
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class CommercePlatform:
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"""state management for the environment, simulates demand"""
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def __init__(self, product_catalogue_size: int, max_price: float, min_price: float, constraints: BusinessLogicConstraints):
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self.product_catalogue_size = product_catalogue_size
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self.max_price = max_price
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self.min_price = min_price
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self.constraints = constraints
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self.simulation_history: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
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self._rng = np.random.default_rng(constraints.seed)
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self._last_interaction_df: pd.DataFrame = pd.DataFrame()
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self.unit_cost = np.random.uniform(low=15.0, high=60.0, size=(self.product_catalogue_size,)).astype(np.float32)
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self.base_price = np.random.uniform(low=60.0, high=140.0, size=(self.product_catalogue_size,)).astype(np.float32)
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self.alpha_hat = constraints.agent_share
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try:
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self.separability_artifacts = load_artifacts()
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except FileNotFoundError:
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self.separability_artifacts = None
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def setup_true_demand(self, prices: np.ndarray) -> Dict[str, np.ndarray]:
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p = np.clip(prices, self.min_price, self.max_price)
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cost = np.clip(self.unit_cost, self.min_price * 0.2, self.max_price)
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margin = np.clip((p - cost) / np.maximum(cost, 1e-3), -0.9, 2.0)
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# isoelastic demand approximation
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human_prob = self.constraints.base_human_demand * np.exp(self.constraints.human_price_elasticity * margin)
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agent_prob = self.constraints.base_agent_demand * np.exp(self.constraints.agent_price_elasticity * margin)
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return {
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"human_purchase_prob": np.clip(human_prob, 0.0, 0.95),
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"agent_purchase_prob": np.clip(agent_prob, 0.0, 0.95),
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}
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def _simulate_sessions(self, prices: np.ndarray) -> Tuple[pd.DataFrame, Dict[str, Any]]:
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demand = self.setup_true_demand(prices)
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T = self.constraints.sessions_per_step
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effective_share = float(np.clip(self.alpha_hat, 0.0, 0.95))
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n_agent_sessions = max(1, int(round(T * effective_share)))
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n_human_sessions = max(1, T - n_agent_sessions)
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session_map = {
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"humans": n_human_sessions,
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"agents": n_agent_sessions,
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}
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pprob_map = {
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"humans": demand["human_purchase_prob"],
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"agents": demand["agent_purchase_prob"],
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}
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rows: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
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session_scores: List[Dict[str, float]] = []
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demand_human = np.zeros_like(prices, dtype=np.float32)
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demand_agent = np.zeros_like(prices, dtype=np.float32)
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for actor, n_sessions in session_map.items():
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profile = _load_behavioral_profile(actor, pprob_map[actor])
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for idx in range(n_sessions):
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session_id = f"{actor}_{idx:06d}"
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session_rows, feature_events = profile.sample_session(
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self._rng, session_id, prices, self.unit_cost
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)
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rows.extend(session_rows)
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if session_rows:
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df_session = pd.DataFrame(session_rows)
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purchases = df_session[df_session["eventName"] == "purchase_complete"]
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if not purchases.empty:
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counts = purchases.groupby("product_idx").size()
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if actor == "agents":
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demand_agent[counts.index.to_numpy(dtype=int)] += counts.to_numpy(dtype=np.float32)
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else:
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demand_human[counts.index.to_numpy(dtype=int)] += counts.to_numpy(dtype=np.float32)
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if self.separability_artifacts and feature_events:
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score = score_session(feature_events, self.separability_artifacts)
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session_scores.append(score)
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interactions_df = pd.DataFrame(rows)
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diagnostics = {
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"alpha_hat": float(self.alpha_hat),
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"session_scores": session_scores,
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"demand_human": demand_human,
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"demand_agent": demand_agent,
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}
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if session_scores:
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alphas = [
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estimate_alpha(s["prob_agent"], s["delta_h"], s["delta_a"], temperature=2.0)
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for s in session_scores
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]
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mean_alpha = float(np.mean(alphas))
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# exponential moving average for stability
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self.alpha_hat = 0.7 * self.alpha_hat + 0.3 * mean_alpha
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diagnostics.update(
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{
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"alpha_hat": float(self.alpha_hat),
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"delta_h_mean": float(np.mean([s["delta_h"] for s in session_scores])),
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"delta_a_mean": float(np.mean([s["delta_a"] for s in session_scores])),
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"prob_agent_mean": float(np.mean([s["prob_agent"] for s in session_scores])),
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}
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)
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self._last_interaction_df = interactions_df
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return interactions_df, diagnostics
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def compute_interaction_features(self, interaction_df: pd.DataFrame) -> Dict[str, float]:
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if interaction_df.empty:
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return {
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"revenue_observed": 0.0,
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"revenue_oracle": 0.0,
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"agent_loss": 0.0,
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"true_human_purchases": 0.0,
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"true_agent_purchases": 0.0,
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"mean_sale_price": 0.0,
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"look_to_book": 0.0,
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"coi": 0.0,
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}
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purchases = interaction_df[interaction_df["eventName"] == "purchase_complete"]
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human_purchases = purchases[purchases["actor"] == "human"]
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agent_purchases = purchases[purchases["actor"] == "agent"]
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revenue_observed = float(purchases["price_paid"].sum())
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revenue_oracle = float(purchases["base_price"].sum())
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agent_loss = float((agent_purchases["base_price"] - agent_purchases["price_paid"]).sum())
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mean_sale_price = float(purchases["price_paid"].mean()) if not purchases.empty else 0.0
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views = float((interaction_df["eventName"] == "view_item_page").sum())
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look_to_book = float(views / (len(purchases) + 1e-6))
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true_human = float(len(human_purchases))
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true_agent = float(len(agent_purchases))
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human_prices = human_purchases["price_offered"] if not human_purchases.empty else pd.Series(dtype=float)
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human_costs = human_purchases["unit_cost"] if not human_purchases.empty else pd.Series(dtype=float)
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coi = 0.0
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if not human_prices.empty and not human_costs.empty:
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# of the purchased items, what is the margin between the price and cost
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# TODO: this should take into account the expected price we could have charged also
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coi = float(np.maximum(0.0, human_prices.mean() - human_costs.mean()))
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return {
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"revenue_observed": revenue_observed,
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"revenue_oracle": revenue_oracle,
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"agent_loss": agent_loss,
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"true_human_purchases": true_human,
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"true_agent_purchases": true_agent,
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"mean_sale_price": mean_sale_price,
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"look_to_book": look_to_book,
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"coi": coi,
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}
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def _session_feature_table(self, df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
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# TODO: adapt this
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if df.empty:
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return pd.DataFrame()
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g = df.groupby("session_id", sort=False)
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session_duration = g["ts"].max() - g["ts"].min()
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total_interactions = g.size()
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avg_time_between = g["ts"].apply(lambda x: float(np.diff(np.sort(x.to_numpy())).mean()) if len(x) > 1 else 0.0)
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interaction_velocity = total_interactions / (session_duration + 1e-6)
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views = g.apply(lambda x: int((x["eventName"] == "view_item_page").sum()), include_groups=False)
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cart_adds = g.apply(lambda x: int((x["eventName"] == "add_item_to_cart").sum()), include_groups=False)
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purchases = g.apply(lambda x: int((x["eventName"] == "purchase_complete").sum()), include_groups=False)
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conversion_rate = purchases / (views + 1e-6)
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is_agent = g["actor"].apply(lambda s: bool((s == "agent").any()), include_groups=False)
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return pd.DataFrame({
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"session_duration_sec": session_duration.astype(float),
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"avg_time_between_events": avg_time_between.astype(float),
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"total_interactions": total_interactions.astype(int),
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"interaction_velocity": interaction_velocity.astype(float),
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"item_views": views.astype(int),
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"cart_adds": cart_adds.astype(int),
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"purchases": purchases.astype(int),
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"conversion_rate": conversion_rate.astype(float),
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"is_agent": is_agent.astype(bool),
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}).reset_index()
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def get_interaction_data(self) -> np.ndarray:
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if self._last_interaction_df.empty:
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return np.array([], dtype=object)
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return self._last_interaction_df.to_dict(orient="records")
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class PHANTOMEnv(gym.Env):
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metadata = {"render_modes": []}
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def __init__(self, constraints: Optional[BusinessLogicConstraints] = None):
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super().__init__()
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self.constraints = constraints if isinstance(constraints, BusinessLogicConstraints) else BusinessLogicConstraints()
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self.action_space = spaces.Box(low=-self.constraints.max_price_adjustment,
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high=self.constraints.max_price_adjustment,
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shape=(self.constraints.product_catalogue_size,), dtype=np.float32)
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self.observation_space = spaces.Dict({
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"elasticity": spaces.Dict({
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"price": spaces.Box(
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low=np.full((self.constraints.product_catalogue_size,), self.constraints.system_min_price, dtype=np.float32),
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high=np.full((self.constraints.product_catalogue_size,), self.constraints.system_max_price, dtype=np.float32),
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dtype=np.float32),
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"demand": spaces.Box(
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low=np.zeros((self.constraints.product_catalogue_size,), dtype=np.float32),
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high=np.full((self.constraints.product_catalogue_size,), 1e6, dtype=np.float32),
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dtype=np.float32),
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})
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# TODO: define more features that we compute from the interaction data
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})
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self.commerce_platform = CommercePlatform(
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product_catalogue_size=self.constraints.product_catalogue_size,
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max_price=self.constraints.system_max_price,
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min_price=self.constraints.system_min_price,
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constraints=self.constraints)
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self._rng = np.random.default_rng(self.constraints.seed)
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self.t = 0
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self._prev_prices: Optional[np.ndarray] = None
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self.state: Dict[str, Any] = {}
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def reset(self, seed: Optional[int] = None, options: Optional[dict] = None):
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super().reset(seed=seed)
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if seed is not None:
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self._rng = np.random.default_rng(seed)
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self.commerce_platform._rng = np.random.default_rng(seed)
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self.commerce_platform.alpha_hat = self.constraints.agent_share
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self.t = 0
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init_prices = self._rng.uniform(
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low=60.0,
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high=140.0,
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size=(self.constraints.product_catalogue_size,),
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).astype(np.float32)
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self.commerce_platform.unit_cost = self._rng.uniform(
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low=15.0,
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high=60.0,
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size=(self.constraints.product_catalogue_size,),
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).astype(np.float32)
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self.commerce_platform.base_price = init_prices.copy()
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self._prev_prices = init_prices.copy()
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self.state = {
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"elasticity": {
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"price": init_prices,
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"demand": np.zeros((self.constraints.product_catalogue_size,), dtype=np.float32),
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}
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}
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return self.state, {}
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def step(self, action: np.ndarray):
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self.t += 1
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base_prices = self.state["elasticity"]["price"].astype(np.float32)
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new_prices = np.clip(base_prices * (1.0 + action.astype(np.float32)),
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self.constraints.system_min_price,
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self.constraints.system_max_price).astype(np.float32)
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self.state["elasticity"]["price"] = new_prices
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interactions_df, diagnostics = self.commerce_platform._simulate_sessions(new_prices)
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result = self.commerce_platform.compute_interaction_features(interactions_df)
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COI = float(result.get("coi", 0.0))
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demand_vector = diagnostics.get("demand_human", np.zeros_like(new_prices)) + diagnostics.get(
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"demand_agent", np.zeros_like(new_prices)
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)
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self.state["elasticity"]["demand"] = demand_vector.astype(np.float32)
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|
|
|
volatility = 0.0 if self._prev_prices is None else \
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float(np.mean(np.abs((new_prices - self._prev_prices) / (self._prev_prices + 1e-6))))
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|
self._prev_prices = new_prices.copy()
|
|
|
|
# extract metrics with safe defaults for incomplete simulation
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|
revenue_observed = float(result.get("revenue_observed", 0.0))
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|
agent_loss = float(result.get("agent_loss", 0.0))
|
|
|
|
reward = (revenue_observed
|
|
- COI
|
|
- self.constraints.w_agent_loss * agent_loss
|
|
- self.constraints.w_volatility * volatility
|
|
- self.constraints.w_estimation_error)
|
|
|
|
terminated = self.t >= self.constraints.episode_length
|
|
info = {
|
|
"t": self.t,
|
|
"revenue_observed": revenue_observed,
|
|
"revenue_oracle": float(result.get("revenue_oracle", revenue_observed)),
|
|
"agent_loss": agent_loss,
|
|
"ux_volatility": volatility,
|
|
"look_to_book": float(result.get("look_to_book", 0.0)),
|
|
"mean_sale_price": float(result.get("mean_sale_price", 0.0)),
|
|
"true_human_purchases_total": float(result.get("true_human_purchases", 0.0)),
|
|
"true_agent_purchases_total": float(result.get("true_agent_purchases", 0.0)),
|
|
"coi": COI,
|
|
"alpha_hat": diagnostics.get("alpha_hat", self.commerce_platform.alpha_hat),
|
|
"mean_human_demand": float(np.mean(diagnostics.get("demand_human", np.zeros_like(new_prices)))),
|
|
"mean_agent_demand": float(np.mean(diagnostics.get("demand_agent", np.zeros_like(new_prices)))),
|
|
}
|
|
if "delta_h_mean" in diagnostics:
|
|
info.update(
|
|
{
|
|
"delta_h_mean": diagnostics["delta_h_mean"],
|
|
"delta_a_mean": diagnostics["delta_a_mean"],
|
|
"prob_agent_mean": diagnostics["prob_agent_mean"],
|
|
}
|
|
)
|
|
return self.state, float(reward), terminated, False, info
|
|
|
|
|
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
|
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
|
from collections import defaultdict
|
|
|
|
env = PHANTOMEnv(constraints=BusinessLogicConstraints())
|
|
obs, _ = env.reset(seed=42)
|
|
metrics = defaultdict(list)
|
|
total_reward = 0.0
|
|
done = False
|
|
|
|
while not done:
|
|
action = env.action_space.sample()
|
|
obs, reward, done, _, info = env.step(action)
|
|
total_reward += reward
|
|
p_mean = float(np.mean(obs["elasticity"]["price"]))
|
|
q_mean = float(np.mean(obs["elasticity"]["demand"]))
|
|
p_std = float(np.std(obs["elasticity"]["price"]))
|
|
|
|
metrics['t'].append(info['t'])
|
|
metrics['price_mean'].append(p_mean)
|
|
metrics['price_std'].append(p_std)
|
|
metrics['demand_mean'].append(q_mean)
|
|
metrics['revenue_observed'].append(info['revenue_observed'])
|
|
metrics['revenue_oracle'].append(info['revenue_oracle'])
|
|
metrics['agent_loss'].append(info['agent_loss'])
|
|
metrics['ux_volatility'].append(info['ux_volatility'])
|
|
metrics['look_to_book'].append(info['look_to_book'])
|
|
metrics['reward'].append(reward)
|
|
metrics['human_purchases'].append(info['true_human_purchases_total'])
|
|
metrics['agent_purchases'].append(info['true_agent_purchases_total'])
|
|
metrics['coi'].append(info.get('coi', 0.0))
|
|
metrics['alpha_hat'].append(info.get('alpha_hat', env.commerce_platform.alpha_hat))
|
|
metrics['mean_human_demand'].append(info.get('mean_human_demand', 0.0))
|
|
metrics['mean_agent_demand'].append(info.get('mean_agent_demand', 0.0))
|
|
metrics['delta_h_mean'].append(info.get('delta_h_mean', 0.0))
|
|
metrics['delta_a_mean'].append(info.get('delta_a_mean', 0.0))
|
|
metrics['prob_agent_mean'].append(info.get('prob_agent_mean', 0.0))
|
|
|
|
if info['t'] % 20 == 0 or done:
|
|
print(f"t={info['t']:03d} p={p_mean:6.2f}±{p_std:4.2f} q={q_mean:6.2f} "
|
|
f"rev={info['revenue_observed']:7.2f} oracle={info['revenue_oracle']:7.2f} "
|
|
f"loss={info['agent_loss']:6.2f} ux={info['ux_volatility']:.3f} "
|
|
f"coi={info.get('coi', 0.0):6.2f} alpha={info.get('alpha_hat', 0.0):4.2f} "
|
|
f"ltb={info['look_to_book']:5.2f} r={reward:7.2f}")
|
|
|
|
print(f"total_reward={total_reward:.2f}")
|
|
|
|
fig, axes = plt.subplots(3, 4, figsize=(18, 12))
|
|
fig.suptitle('PHANTOM Environment Run', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold')
|
|
|
|
plot_configs = [
|
|
('price_mean', 'Mean Price', 'Price'),
|
|
('demand_mean', 'Mean Demand (All)', 'Demand'),
|
|
('mean_human_demand', 'Mean Human Demand', 'Count'),
|
|
('mean_agent_demand', 'Mean Agent Demand', 'Count'),
|
|
('revenue_observed', 'Revenue (Observed)', 'Revenue'),
|
|
('agent_loss', 'Agent Loss (Oracle - Observed)', 'Loss'),
|
|
('coi', 'Cost of Information', 'COI'),
|
|
('alpha_hat', 'Estimated α̂', 'alpha'),
|
|
('ux_volatility', 'UX Volatility (Price Change)', 'Volatility'),
|
|
('look_to_book', 'Look-to-Book Ratio', 'Ratio'),
|
|
('reward', 'Step Reward', 'Reward'),
|
|
('prob_agent_mean', 'Avg Agent Probability', 'Probability'),
|
|
]
|
|
|
|
for idx, (key, title, ylabel) in enumerate(plot_configs):
|
|
ax = axes[idx // 4, idx % 4]
|
|
ax.plot(metrics['t'], metrics[key], color='blue', alpha=0.7, linewidth=1.5)
|
|
ax.set_xlabel('Step')
|
|
ax.set_ylabel(ylabel)
|
|
ax.set_title(title, fontsize=10, fontweight='bold')
|
|
ax.grid(True, alpha=0.3)
|
|
|
|
plt.tight_layout()
|
|
plt.savefig('phantom_env_comparison.png', dpi=150, bbox_inches='tight')
|
|
print("Plot saved to phantom_env_comparison.png")
|
|
plt.show()
|