Compare commits

..

87 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
56585b3de8 cleaning path for intergations 2026-02-28 14:11:39 +01:00
5444a4ea13 catchup: rogue scripts 2026-02-27 12:45:46 +01:00
e8a9716f69 hotfix of machines 2026-02-27 11:59:08 +01:00
e50d643fbf feat: training update 2026-02-27 09:33:04 +01:00
Daniel Alves Rösel
dac1e58a0d Merge pull request #52 from velocitatem/enriching-engine-simulation
Enriching engine simulation
2026-02-25 09:21:26 +01:00
4667a1678f chore minor paper edits 2026-02-25 09:16:00 +01:00
a4b7b5b4b2 improements of the methodology for now almost ready tosubmit 2026-02-19 18:28:40 +01:00
1a9901f118 refactored training approaches 2026-02-19 18:23:08 +01:00
5912062dc0 new trainer image 2026-02-19 13:03:25 +01:00
843564eeb0 TPU startup scripts 2026-02-19 13:03:03 +01:00
9acc998cc9 fixing models for gcp 2026-02-17 16:54:55 +01:00
802f31b4a1 adding naive jax and libraries and make adjustments 2026-02-17 14:48:18 +01:00
66c4a0cd1d chore: fix chips used 2026-02-17 14:46:43 +01:00
244af9ac09 citing compute 2026-02-17 14:46:34 +01:00
76c31a2abd citing marc and 2026-02-17 09:40:20 +01:00
64ee7e6d9b forcing light mode 2026-02-16 11:30:18 +01:00
1e04a928aa migrated new banner 2026-02-15 17:31:31 +01:00
9b133cddfd introduce penalized sessions to episodes 2026-02-15 17:15:25 +01:00
ded7290935 hidef banner rendering 2026-02-15 17:12:12 +01:00
8e4dd59f90 banner rendering 2026-02-15 17:10:16 +01:00
024f6d4132 banner addition 2026-02-15 17:10:13 +01:00
2b47c3499a chore: fixing discretization of actions 2026-02-15 15:45:46 +01:00
ef1d1f6557 fixing assumption definition 2026-02-14 21:54:42 +01:00
d7657db287 reintroducing our note :) 2026-02-14 21:49:40 +01:00
e8229ac313 updating methodology with better refelction 2026-02-14 15:20:38 +01:00
bc6c481d03 minor refactors to codebase to implement DRO 2026-02-14 14:53:30 +01:00
895eea5674 imporving methodology and adding onto it 2026-02-14 14:28:18 +01:00
fba2a9739e updating paper details 2026-02-14 13:13:00 +01:00
d1aa13360f cleaning refactors 2026-02-13 21:03:02 +01:00
f6f9729424 improving expression of ideas from dump 2026-02-10 18:12:49 +01:00
29a13340b9 hotfix: updating pricing provider to better read data 2026-02-06 12:01:12 +01:00
e22286371f feat: proportiona lrevenu 2026-02-06 11:54:23 +01:00
e44feb7da0 updaing coi definition 2026-02-05 12:47:13 +01:00
ebd2378859 yapping 2026-02-05 12:28:26 +01:00
c4d82b2ecc rescaling the graph 2026-02-02 16:55:06 +01:00
a9e2e7cbf3 improving on the methodlology 2026-02-02 16:52:50 +01:00
e0b074161b fix: typo 2026-02-02 12:08:24 +01:00
08c0afb55a chore: add chart of supra competive pricing 2026-02-02 12:03:30 +01:00
c4fd1352c9 naoice COI implementation 2026-02-02 11:18:37 +01:00
4abef97bf7 chore: adding simulation logging with wandb 2026-01-31 16:21:10 +01:00
33cb0d7e95 feature: refactored demand splitting and implementation 2026-01-31 12:56:48 +01:00
e8ef850089 feat: introduced simple COI proxy 2026-01-31 12:06:48 +01:00
e7cb48e9cd chore: updating paper 2026-01-31 10:47:12 +01:00
Daniel Alves Rösel
dba8f3fafa Merge pull request #44 from velocitatem/agent-behavior-loader-developemen
Agent behavior loader developement + rl loop definition and e2e tests.
2026-01-31 10:21:54 +01:00
Daniel Alves Rösel
9843c5deab Merge pull request #51 from velocitatem/feat-strong-learning-implementation-with-data-contamination
Feat strong learning implementation with data contamination
2026-01-31 10:15:09 +01:00
13959e4b28 chore: bug fixes 2026-01-31 10:13:07 +01:00
Daniel Alves Rösel
2f481bd94b Merge branch 'agent-behavior-loader-developemen' into feat-strong-learning-implementation-with-data-contamination 2026-01-31 10:08:59 +01:00
72877439ca feat: contaminator and training 2026-01-31 09:48:20 +01:00
0f5f8affab chore: make lib backwards compatible 2026-01-31 09:48:20 +01:00
ee70f02a1f chore: export repeated methods into lib 2026-01-31 09:48:20 +01:00
22a2c255bd chore: remove boilerplate 2026-01-31 09:48:20 +01:00
ccc19f3493 acapting some architectures 2026-01-31 09:48:20 +01:00
00e3eff2fa migrating weak learning 2026-01-31 09:48:20 +01:00
440371dba4 feat: initial feature engineering of trajectories 2026-01-31 09:48:20 +01:00
b05b510f70 strong dataset gathering 2026-01-31 09:48:20 +01:00
04907df393 feat: weak train scaffold 2026-01-31 09:48:20 +01:00
b2f0746c01 chore: extra commenting 2026-01-31 09:48:20 +01:00
7b2d80ac4c feat: wip contaminator 2026-01-31 09:48:20 +01:00
0ce12fbc3b chore: ignores 2026-01-31 09:48:17 +01:00
e9cf5f0736 refactor models computations 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
82b54428b7 chore: refactor the loader class 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
87a35fad2c feat: joint loader 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
af23d2f736 feat: introduction of agentinc MDPs and KL divergence of > 2 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
9cb2b0fc44 feat: forgot airflow helper staging 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
7c330a19c6 feat: added a runner script for agent orchestration 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
Daniel Alves Rösel
eb95060380 Pre run web refactors (#43)
* chore: refactor date utilities

* feat: improve images of hotel rooms

* fix: adding date utils
2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
61dd621532 chore: styling and title updates 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
4c368d48f2 chore: fixing visual bugs in cart 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
3c141a4b6c chore: better test consistency before agnet 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
e89cb263d4 planning 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
62a4008c29 feat: integration of pipeline hooks into testing 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
8b429b7a8e chore: refactor to better map end to end 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
f9bf3de71e pdf rendering 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
131323ef56 featuer: dot exporter 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
ec4cf074e6 feature: MDP behavior mappers (unlinked) 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
6a06a8af4a simple code cleanup 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
3fa98f375d refactor to align moer with research in the env sims 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
201c98bcac improved implementation 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
8a08458478 formlating the reward simply 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
7d09232e48 high level defintion 2026-01-31 09:46:44 +01:00
20132c084c initial environemnt definitions 2026-01-31 09:46:41 +01:00
26abff5864 chore: fixing tests with seed determinism 2026-01-30 13:57:40 +01:00
4c7d9362af chore: envs for e2e 2026-01-30 13:55:22 +01:00
ea45801845 chore: removing the lab byproduct 2026-01-30 13:22:22 +01:00
Daniel Alves Rösel
574e05d9e0 Merge pull request #50 from velocitatem/new-simulation-environment-development
New simulation environment development
2026-01-30 13:19:53 +01:00
Daniel Alves Rösel
b5f19e04b7 Paper lit review (#45)
* chore: updating apa citation and fixing citation in-text and parent

* fixing in lit review

* adjusting citations and improving schema

* chore: fixed formating and adjusting other components

* refined abstract

* one page fitting

* constrainative proposals

* fix: syntax of transtion probs

* refined lit review and soruces

* research Objectives

* adding logo graphics

* chore: fixing citation completeness

* updating with newly built algoerith

* lit review document setup
2026-01-26 13:04:32 +01:00
Daniel Alves Rösel
a9d73ccce5 Paper first fillout (#39)
* initial environemnt definitions

* high level defintion

* formlating the reward simply

* improved implementation

* tailored docker compose image for secondary tenaordboard

* preliminary desriptions and babble

* details on formulation and defintion of agent and its loop

* typos one

* more grammar issues

* fluidity improvements and refactors

* more decluttering and dnoising

* finalizing introduction review

* some methodology

* somehow this disappeared

* bit more of this and that

* methodology of how we do architectuer and online DP

* fix: compilation

* expanding on the taxonomy and economic references

* authoer notes

* acks + google GCP

* making space w new format nada lit review

* stronger lit review and more sources

* forgot about tables and graphs

* dedupe citations

* adding cloudflare

* fixing env vars

* updating docs with url

* upating embed

* fixing the url

* paper badge

* formaliztaion of rewards and adding definitions

* noisy formulations

* connecting some more dots here

* adding significant weight in prices

* fixing error

* fixing typos and consistency

* extra math formulations and refferenceot DRO

* fixing diagram of loops

* github mindmap

* fixing erro and thiknig about big picture

* enhancing the website

* goals methodology and gitignore

* some more references and theory links

* talking about some wtp

* feature: added wordcounter

* forcing latex builds and fixining the bib #

* refactor: update Cost of Information equations and notation for clarity

* some more math and refactors

* refactor: unify notation and improve clarity in COI equations

* refactor: generalize master function for demand estimation and pricing strategies

* we dont like math but we have to do it :(

* refactor: enhance Cost of Information framework with additional context and illustration

* refactor: enhance literature review and methodology sections with economic theory insights and system architecture details

* alining format to fit the rubric

* refactoring bibliography

* fix: align

* mdp additionally

* trying different title

* adding balance figure

* agentic givergence, finally

* fix: figure fonts adjusted to match
2026-01-13 17:07:29 +01:00
139 changed files with 17442 additions and 4683 deletions

17
.dockerignore Normal file
View File

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
.git
.venv
.venv-tpu
**/__pycache__
**/*.pyc
**/*.pyo
**/.pytest_cache
**/.mypy_cache
**/.ruff_cache
**/.ipynb_checkpoints
wandb
build
paper/build
paper/build-cais
node_modules
**/node_modules
*.egg-info

18
.env.sweep.example Normal file
View File

@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
# Copy this file to .env.sweep and fill in values.
# Required for wandb runs and sweep agent workers.
WANDB_API_KEY=
WANDB_ENTITY=
WANDB_PROJECT=phantom-pricing
# Required for private repo bootstrap workers.
GITHUB_TOKEN=
# Optional defaults for bootstrap mode.
# REPO_URL=https://github.com/org/repo.git
# BRANCH=main
# WORKDIR=$HOME/PHANTOM-agent
# SWEEP_ID=entity/project/id
# AGENT_COUNT=0
# AGENT_LOOP=1
# RETRY_SECONDS=20

View File

@@ -19,10 +19,56 @@ jobs:
with:
root_file: main.tex
working_directory: paper/src
args: -pdf -interaction=nonstopmode -file-line-error -outdir=../build
args: -pdf -f -interaction=nonstopmode -file-line-error -outdir=../build
pre_compile: bash ../concat_code.sh
- name: Upload PDF
uses: actions/upload-artifact@v4
with:
name: thesis-pdf
path: paper/build/main.pdf
- name: Get current date
id: date
run: echo "date=$(date +'%Y-%m-%d')" >> $GITHUB_OUTPUT
- name: Upload to Cloudflare R2
env:
AWS_ACCESS_KEY_ID: ${{ secrets.R2_ACCESS_KEY_ID }}
AWS_SECRET_ACCESS_KEY: ${{ secrets.R2_SECRET_ACCESS_KEY }}
AWS_ENDPOINT_URL: ${{ secrets.R2_ENDPOINT }}
DATE: ${{ steps.date.outputs.date }}
BUCKET_NAME: ${{ secrets.R2_BUCKET_NAME }}
run: |
pip install boto3
python3 << 'EOF'
import boto3
import os
s3 = boto3.client('s3',
endpoint_url=os.environ['AWS_ENDPOINT_URL'],
aws_access_key_id=os.environ['AWS_ACCESS_KEY_ID'],
aws_secret_access_key=os.environ['AWS_SECRET_ACCESS_KEY']
)
date = os.environ['DATE']
bucket = os.environ['BUCKET_NAME']
# upload dated version
dated_filename = f"thesis-{date}.pdf"
s3.upload_file(
'paper/build/main.pdf',
bucket,
dated_filename,
ExtraArgs={'ContentType': 'application/pdf'}
)
print(f"Uploaded {dated_filename}")
# upload latest version
s3.upload_file(
'paper/build/main.pdf',
bucket,
'thesis-latest.pdf',
ExtraArgs={'ContentType': 'application/pdf'}
)
print(f"Uploaded thesis-latest.pdf")
EOF

62
.gitignore vendored
View File

@@ -1,26 +1,86 @@
# environment and secrets
**/.env
.env.*
!.env.*.example
**/.venv
# python build/cache artifacts
**/__pycache__
phantom.egg-info/
*.egg-info/
# notebook artifacts
**/.ipynb_checkpoints/
**/.virtual_documents/
# editor/tool state
**/.pdf-view-restore
.nextstep
.ignore-gitlogue
.cloudflare
# generated svg/graphics
**/session_*.svg
**/*graph.svg
**/auto/*.el
# misc generated
*.old
**/package-lock.json
**/*.parquet
**/_build/
# paper build artifacts
paper/src/bib/auto
paper/src/auto/*
paper/src/bib/auto
paper/template/*
paper/build-cais/
paper/src/main.pdf
paper/src/main-blx.bib
paper/src/svg-inkscape/
paper/src/mirrors/
paper/variations/
paper/src/graphics/test_*.png
thesis-latest.pdf
# experiment run artifacts and logs
docs/goals/*.md
PHANTOM.wiki/
experiments/airflow/logs/*
experiments/airflow/logs/scheduler/
experiments/airflow/logs/dag_processor_manager/
experiments/collected_data/
experiments/agents/collected_data/
tests/e2e/test-results/
tests/e2e/node_modules/**
# rl/sim run outputs
sim/rl/behavior_loader/*.dot
sim/rl/behavior_loader/*.png
sim/rl/behavior_loader/*.svg
sim/rl/behavior_loader/*.pdf
tests/e2e/node_modules/**
sim/rl/runs/
lab/case/thesis/runs*/
sim/case/thesis_simplified/runs*/
# model binaries
engine/models/*.zip
*.zip
# wandb local state
wandb/
# data directory (large datasets)
data/
# ktem local app data
ktem_app_data/
# generated visualization pdfs
*_mdp_viz.pdf
phantom_env_comparison.png
sim/phantom_env_comparison.png
# web clone
PHANTOM_web/*

1
AGENTS.md Symbolic link
View File

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
CLAUDE.md

140
Makefile
View File

@@ -9,11 +9,45 @@ PYTHON := $(VENV)/bin/python
PIP := $(VENV)/bin/pip
PYTEST := $(VENV)/bin/pytest
SWEEP_ENV_FILE ?= .env.sweep
WANDB_ENTITY ?=
WANDB_PROJECT ?= phantom-pricing
SWEEP_ID ?=
LOCAL_TRAIN_ARGS ?= --algo ppo --total-timesteps 50000
AGENT_COUNT ?= 0
REPO_URL ?=
BRANCH ?= main
WORKDIR ?= $(HOME)/PHANTOM-agent
AGENT_LOOP ?= 1
RETRY_SECONDS ?= 20
TRAIN_IMAGE_REF := us-central1-docker.pkg.dev/phantom-trc/phantom/phantom-trainer
TPU_NAME ?=
TPU_ZONE ?= us-central2-b
TPU_PROJECT ?= phantom-trc
TPU_REPO_DIR ?= /tmp/PHANTOM
SWEEP_ENV_LOAD = set -a; [ -f "$(SWEEP_ENV_FILE)" ] && . "$(SWEEP_ENV_FILE)" || true; set +a
.DEFAULT_GOAL := help
.PHONY: help
help:
@echo "pdf.build pdf.watch pdf.clean | test.backend test.e2e test.all | web.dev | install | stats.lines"
@echo "pdf.build pdf.watch pdf.clean | test.backend test.e2e test.all | web.dev | install | train | train.agent | train.bootstrap | train.tpu.pod | train.tpu.vm | train.tpu.vm.sweep | stats.lines"
@echo "docker.train.publish"
@echo ""
@echo "Local wandb run:"
@echo " make train LOCAL_TRAIN_ARGS='--algo ppo --total-timesteps 50000'"
@echo ""
@echo "Local sweep agent from this repo:"
@echo " make train.agent SWEEP_ID=entity/project/id AGENT_COUNT=5"
@echo ""
@echo "Bootstrap private repo worker from anywhere:"
@echo " make train.bootstrap REPO_URL=https://github.com/org/repo.git BRANCH=main SWEEP_ID=entity/project/id"
@echo ""
@echo "Config source: $(SWEEP_ENV_FILE) (auto-loaded)"
$(BUILDDIR):
mkdir -p paper/$(BUILDDIR)
@@ -22,14 +56,15 @@ $(BUILDDIR):
pdf.build: $(BUILDDIR)
@bash paper/concat_code.sh
@cd $(SRCDIR) && \
$(LATEXMK) -pdf -jobname=$(JOBNAME) \
$(LATEXMK) -pdf -jobname=$(JOBNAME) -f \
-interaction=nonstopmode -file-line-error \
-r ../.latexmkrc \
-outdir=../$(BUILDDIR) $(TEX)
.PHONY: pdf.watch
pdf.watch: $(BUILDDIR)
@cd $(SRCDIR) && \
$(LATEXMK) -pvc -pdf -jobname=$(JOBNAME) \
$(LATEXMK) -pvc -pdf -jobname=$(JOBNAME) -f \
-interaction=nonstopmode -file-line-error \
-r ../.latexmkrc \
-outdir=../$(BUILDDIR) $(TEX)
@@ -69,11 +104,110 @@ $(VENV):
install: $(VENV)
$(PIP) install -r requirements.txt
.PHONY: train
train: install
@$(SWEEP_ENV_LOAD); test -n "$$WANDB_API_KEY" || (echo "WANDB_API_KEY required — set it in $(SWEEP_ENV_FILE)" && exit 1)
@$(SWEEP_ENV_LOAD); WANDB_API_KEY="$$WANDB_API_KEY" WANDB_ENTITY="$(WANDB_ENTITY)" WANDB_PROJECT="$(WANDB_PROJECT)" \
$(PYTHON) -m engine.train $(LOCAL_TRAIN_ARGS)
.PHONY: train.agent
train.agent: install
@$(SWEEP_ENV_LOAD); test -n "$$WANDB_API_KEY" || (echo "WANDB_API_KEY required — set it in $(SWEEP_ENV_FILE)" && exit 1)
@test -n "$(SWEEP_ID)" || (echo "SWEEP_ID required, e.g. SWEEP_ID=entity/project/id" && exit 1)
@$(SWEEP_ENV_LOAD); WANDB_API_KEY="$$WANDB_API_KEY" WANDB_ENTITY="$(WANDB_ENTITY)" WANDB_PROJECT="$(WANDB_PROJECT)" \
$(PYTHON) -m engine.train --sweep-agent --sweep-id "$(SWEEP_ID)" \
$(if $(filter-out 0,$(AGENT_COUNT)),--count $(AGENT_COUNT),)
.PHONY: train.bootstrap
train.bootstrap:
@$(SWEEP_ENV_LOAD); test -n "$$WANDB_API_KEY" || (echo "WANDB_API_KEY required — set it in $(SWEEP_ENV_FILE)" && exit 1)
@$(SWEEP_ENV_LOAD); test -n "$$GITHUB_TOKEN" || (echo "GITHUB_TOKEN required — set it in $(SWEEP_ENV_FILE)" && exit 1)
@test -n "$(REPO_URL)" || (echo "REPO_URL required, e.g. REPO_URL=https://github.com/org/repo.git" && exit 1)
@test -n "$(SWEEP_ID)" || (echo "SWEEP_ID required, e.g. SWEEP_ID=entity/project/id" && exit 1)
@$(SWEEP_ENV_LOAD); \
WANDB_API_KEY="$$WANDB_API_KEY" \
WANDB_ENTITY="$(WANDB_ENTITY)" \
WANDB_PROJECT="$(WANDB_PROJECT)" \
GITHUB_TOKEN="$$GITHUB_TOKEN" \
REPO_URL="$(REPO_URL)" \
BRANCH="$(BRANCH)" \
WORKDIR="$(WORKDIR)" \
SWEEP_ID="$(SWEEP_ID)" \
AGENT_COUNT="$(AGENT_COUNT)" \
AGENT_LOOP="$(AGENT_LOOP)" \
RETRY_SECONDS="$(RETRY_SECONDS)" \
bash scripts/wandb_agent_bootstrap.sh
.PHONY: stats.lines
stats.lines:
@find . \( -path '*/node_modules' -o -path '*/.venv' -o -path '*/venv' \) -prune -o \
\( -name "*.ts" -o -name "*.py" \) -type f -print0 | xargs -0 cat | wc -l
.PHONY: wordcount
wordcount:
@echo "Counting words in main text (excluding appendix)..."
@texcount -nosub -total -sum -1 \
$(SRCDIR)/chapters/01-intro.tex \
$(SRCDIR)/chapters/02-literature-review.tex \
$(SRCDIR)/chapters/03-methodology.tex \
$(SRCDIR)/chapters/04-results.tex \
$(SRCDIR)/chapters/05-discussion.tex \
$(SRCDIR)/chapters/06-conclusion.tex
.PHONY: docker.train.publish
docker.train.publish:
docker build -f docker/Trainer.dockerfile --target gpu -t $(TRAIN_IMAGE_REF):gpu-latest .
docker push $(TRAIN_IMAGE_REF):gpu-latest
docker build -f docker/Trainer.dockerfile --target tpu -t $(TRAIN_IMAGE_REF):tpu-latest .
docker push $(TRAIN_IMAGE_REF):tpu-latest
.PHONY: train.tpu.pod
train.tpu.pod:
@test -n "$(TPU_NAME)" || (echo "TPU_NAME required, e.g. TPU_NAME=TPUlong" && exit 1)
@test -n "$(SWEEP_ID)" || (echo "SWEEP_ID required, e.g. SWEEP_ID=entity/project/id" && exit 1)
@$(SWEEP_ENV_LOAD); test -n "$$WANDB_API_KEY" || (echo "WANDB_API_KEY required — set it in $(SWEEP_ENV_FILE)" && exit 1)
gcloud compute tpus tpu-vm scp scripts/tpu_pod_run.sh $(TPU_NAME):/tmp/tpu_pod_run.sh \
--zone=$(TPU_ZONE) --project=$(TPU_PROJECT) --worker=all
@$(SWEEP_ENV_LOAD); \
gcloud compute tpus tpu-vm ssh $(TPU_NAME) \
--zone=$(TPU_ZONE) --project=$(TPU_PROJECT) --worker=all \
--command="WANDB_API_KEY='$$WANDB_API_KEY' SWEEP_ID='$(SWEEP_ID)' AGENT_COUNT='$(AGENT_COUNT)' sh /tmp/tpu_pod_run.sh"
.PHONY: train.tpu.vm.prepare
train.tpu.vm.prepare:
@test -n "$(TPU_NAME)" || (echo "TPU_NAME required, e.g. TPU_NAME=TPUlong" && exit 1)
TPU_NAME="$(TPU_NAME)" TPU_ZONE="$(TPU_ZONE)" TPU_PROJECT="$(TPU_PROJECT)" \
LOCAL_REPO_DIR="$(CURDIR)" REMOTE_REPO_DIR="$(TPU_REPO_DIR)" \
sh scripts/tpu_sync_repo.sh
gcloud compute tpus tpu-vm scp scripts/tpu_vm_train.sh $(TPU_NAME):/tmp/tpu_vm_train.sh \
--zone=$(TPU_ZONE) --project=$(TPU_PROJECT) --worker=all
.PHONY: train.tpu.vm.run
train.tpu.vm.run:
@test -n "$(TPU_NAME)" || (echo "TPU_NAME required, e.g. TPU_NAME=TPUlong" && exit 1)
@test -n "$(LOCAL_TRAIN_ARGS)" || (echo "LOCAL_TRAIN_ARGS required, e.g. --algo ppo --jax --total-timesteps 200000" && exit 1)
@$(SWEEP_ENV_LOAD); \
gcloud compute tpus tpu-vm ssh $(TPU_NAME) \
--zone=$(TPU_ZONE) --project=$(TPU_PROJECT) --worker=all \
--command="REPO_DIR='$(TPU_REPO_DIR)' TRAIN_ARGS='$(LOCAL_TRAIN_ARGS)' WANDB_API_KEY='$$WANDB_API_KEY' sh /tmp/tpu_vm_train.sh"
.PHONY: train.tpu.vm
train.tpu.vm: train.tpu.vm.prepare train.tpu.vm.run
.PHONY: train.tpu.vm.sweep
train.tpu.vm.sweep:
@test -n "$(TPU_NAME)" || (echo "TPU_NAME required, e.g. TPU_NAME=TPUlong" && exit 1)
@test -n "$(SWEEP_ID)" || (echo "SWEEP_ID required, e.g. SWEEP_ID=lusiana/phantom-pricing/abc123" && exit 1)
@$(SWEEP_ENV_LOAD); test -n "$$WANDB_API_KEY" || (echo "WANDB_API_KEY required — set it in $(SWEEP_ENV_FILE)" && exit 1)
@$(SWEEP_ENV_LOAD); WANDB_API_KEY="$$WANDB_API_KEY" \
python3 scripts/tpu_vm_sweep_agent.py \
--sweep-id "$(SWEEP_ID)" \
--tpu-name "$(TPU_NAME)" \
--tpu-zone "$(TPU_ZONE)" \
--tpu-project "$(TPU_PROJECT)" \
--tpu-repo-dir "$(TPU_REPO_DIR)" \
$(if $(filter-out 0,$(AGENT_COUNT)),--count $(AGENT_COUNT),)
.PHONY: pdf clean watch run.webapp test count-lines all
pdf: pdf.build
clean: pdf.clean

View File

@@ -3,10 +3,92 @@
### PHANTOM
[![Build PDF](https://github.com/velocitatem/PHANTOM/actions/workflows/latex.yml/badge.svg)](https://github.com/velocitatem/PHANTOM/actions/workflows/latex.yml)
[![Paper](https://img.shields.io/badge/Paper-PDF-red?logo=adobe-acrobat-reader)](https://pub-d5b94a3c29fd40c6b3881946e463fdb7.r2.dev/thesis-latest.pdf)
[![TPU Research Cloud](https://img.shields.io/badge/TPU%20Research%20Cloud-TRC%20supported-4285F4?logo=googlecloud&logoColor=white)](https://sites.research.google/trc/faq/)
[![Vercel Deploy](https://deploy-badge.vercel.app/?url=https://phantom-hotel.vercel.app&name=Hotel)](https://phantom-hotel.vercel.app)
[![Vercel Deploy](https://deploy-badge.vercel.app/?url=https://phantom-airline.vercel.app&name=Airline)](https://phantom-airline.vercel.app)
```mermaid
mindmap
PHANTOM((PHANTOM Project))
North Star
Study how automated actors change markets
Build an experimentation platform for real-world-like commerce
Two-loop learning system
Online observation loop
Offline "defense gym" loop
Core Economic Questions
Price Discovery
How prices respond to demand signals
How signal quality changes with bots/agents
Demand & Elasticity
Shifts in willingness-to-pay
Short-run vs long-run elasticity
Market Efficiency & Welfare
Consumer surplus vs producer surplus
Deadweight loss from frictions/manipulation
Price Discrimination & Segmentation
Behavioral feature-based segmentation
Fairness vs profitability tradeoffs
Information Asymmetry
Agents amplify search and arbitrage
Sellers infer more about buyers; buyers infer more about sellers
Strategic Interaction
Consumers vs firms vs agents
Feedback loops: policy ↔ behavior ↔ price
Market Power & Competition
Algorithmic pricing as competitive tool
Risks: tacit coordination / "algorithmic collusion"
Externalities
Congestion and attention costs
Spillovers: one segments behavior affects others prices
System-Level View
Participants
Humans
Agents (automated buyers/actors)
Firms (pricing decision-makers)
Platform (measurement + control layer)
Markets Simulated
Repeated transactions
Limited inventory / capacity constraints (conceptually)
Time dynamics (learning over time)
Interventions
Pricing policies
Experiment assignment / randomized exposure
Agent behavioral policies (task-driven)
Measurement & Causal Inference
What is observed
Actions (search, click, purchase intent)
Context (product attributes, time, exposure)
Outcomes (conversion, revenue, churn proxies)
Identification strategy
A/B tests and randomization
Counterfactual baselines
Robustness checks (offline replay)
Key metrics
Revenue / profit proxies
Conversion & bounce
Price volatility / stability
Welfare proxies (e.g., dispersion, access)
Risk, Governance, and Ethics
Manipulation & Integrity
Bot-driven demand distortion
Measurement contamination
Fairness & Transparency
Differential pricing concerns
Explainability and auditability
Safety Constraints
Guardrails on price moves
Monitoring for runaway feedback loops
Outputs
Insights
When do agents raise/lower prices via behavior shifts?
Which market designs are robust to automation?
Defenses
Agent-aware pricing policies (robust control)
Detection + mitigation strategies (feature-level separability)
Platform Value
Reusable testbed for market + AI-agent research
```

6
TPUS/README.md Normal file
View File

@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
64 spot Cloud TPU v6e chips in zone europe-west4-a
32 spot Cloud TPU v4 chips in zone us-central2-b
64 spot Cloud TPU v5e chips in zone us-central1-a
64 spot Cloud TPU v6e chips in zone us-east1-d
32 on-demand Cloud TPU v4 chips in zone us-central2-b
64 spot Cloud TPU v5e chips in zone europe-west4-b

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
# 32 spot Cloud TPU v4 chips in zone us-central2-b
export PROJECT_ID=phantom-trc
export QR_NAME=TPUv4s32spotUC2B
export TPU_NAME=tpu-v4-32-uc2b-spot
export ZONE=us-central2-b
export ACCELERATOR_TYPE=v4-32
export RUNTIME_VERSION=v2-alpha-tpuv4
gcloud compute tpus tpu-vm create ${TPU_NAME} \
--project=${PROJECT_ID} \
--zone=${ZONE} \
--accelerator-type=${ACCELERATOR_TYPE} \
--version=${RUNTIME_VERSION} \
--spot \
|| \
gcloud compute tpus queued-resources create ${QR_NAME} \
--project=${PROJECT_ID} \
--zone=${ZONE} \
--node-id=${TPU_NAME} \
--accelerator-type=${ACCELERATOR_TYPE} \
--runtime-version=${RUNTIME_VERSION} \
--spot

13
TPUS/v4_uscentral2b.sh Normal file
View File

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
# 32 on-demand Cloud TPU v4 chips in zone us-central2-b
export PROJECT_ID=phantom-trc
export QR_NAME=TPUlong
export ZONE=us-central2-b
export ACCELERATOR_TYPE=v4-32
export RUNTIME_VERSION=v2-alpha-tpuv4
#gcloud compute tpus tpu-vm create ${TPU_NAME} --zone=${ZONE} --project=${PROJECT_ID} --accelerator-type=${ACCELERATOR_TYPE} --version=${RUNTIME_VERSION}
gcloud compute tpus queued-resources create ${QR_NAME} \
--project=${PROJECT_ID} \
--zone=${ZONE} \
--node-id=${TPU_NAME} \
--accelerator-type=${ACCELERATOR_TYPE} \
--runtime-version=${RUNTIME_VERSION}

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
# 64 spot Cloud TPU v5e chips in zone europe-west4-b
export PROJECT_ID=phantom-trc
export QR_NAME=TPUv5e64spotEW4B
export TPU_NAME=tpu-v5e-64-ew4b
export ZONE=europe-west4-b
export ACCELERATOR_TYPE=v5e-64
export RUNTIME_VERSION=v2-alpha-tpuv5-lite
gcloud compute tpus tpu-vm create ${TPU_NAME} \
--project=${PROJECT_ID} \
--zone=${ZONE} \
--accelerator-type=${ACCELERATOR_TYPE} \
--version=${RUNTIME_VERSION} \
--spot \
|| \
gcloud compute tpus queued-resources create ${QR_NAME} \
--project=${PROJECT_ID} \
--zone=${ZONE} \
--node-id=${TPU_NAME} \
--accelerator-type=${ACCELERATOR_TYPE} \
--runtime-version=${RUNTIME_VERSION} \
--spot

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
# 64 spot Cloud TPU v5e chips in zone us-central1-a
export PROJECT_ID=phantom-trc
export QR_NAME=TPUv5e64spotUC1A
export TPU_NAME=tpu-v5e-64-uc1a
export ZONE=us-central1-a
export ACCELERATOR_TYPE=v5e-64
export RUNTIME_VERSION=v2-alpha-tpuv5-lite
gcloud compute tpus tpu-vm create ${TPU_NAME} \
--project=${PROJECT_ID} \
--zone=${ZONE} \
--accelerator-type=${ACCELERATOR_TYPE} \
--version=${RUNTIME_VERSION} \
--spot \
|| \
gcloud compute tpus queued-resources create ${QR_NAME} \
--project=${PROJECT_ID} \
--zone=${ZONE} \
--node-id=${TPU_NAME} \
--accelerator-type=${ACCELERATOR_TYPE} \
--runtime-version=${RUNTIME_VERSION} \
--spot

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
# 64 spot Cloud TPU v6e chips in zone europe-west4-a
export PROJECT_ID=phantom-trc
export QR_NAME=TPUv6e64spotEW4A
export TPU_NAME=tpu-v6e-64-ew4a
export ZONE=europe-west4-a
export ACCELERATOR_TYPE=v6e-64
export RUNTIME_VERSION=v2-alpha-tpuv6e
gcloud compute tpus tpu-vm create ${TPU_NAME} \
--project=${PROJECT_ID} \
--zone=${ZONE} \
--accelerator-type=${ACCELERATOR_TYPE} \
--version=${RUNTIME_VERSION} \
--spot \
|| \
gcloud compute tpus queued-resources create ${QR_NAME} \
--project=${PROJECT_ID} \
--zone=${ZONE} \
--node-id=${TPU_NAME} \
--accelerator-type=${ACCELERATOR_TYPE} \
--runtime-version=${RUNTIME_VERSION} \
--spot

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
# 64 spot Cloud TPU v6e chips in zone us-east1-d
export PROJECT_ID=phantom-trc
export QR_NAME=TPUv6e64spotUE1D
export TPU_NAME=tpu-v6e-64-ue1d
export ZONE=us-east1-d
export ACCELERATOR_TYPE=v6e-64
export RUNTIME_VERSION=v2-alpha-tpuv6e
gcloud compute tpus tpu-vm create ${TPU_NAME} \
--project=${PROJECT_ID} \
--zone=${ZONE} \
--accelerator-type=${ACCELERATOR_TYPE} \
--version=${RUNTIME_VERSION} \
--spot \
|| \
gcloud compute tpus queued-resources create ${QR_NAME} \
--project=${PROJECT_ID} \
--zone=${ZONE} \
--node-id=${TPU_NAME} \
--accelerator-type=${ACCELERATOR_TYPE} \
--runtime-version=${RUNTIME_VERSION} \
--spot

42
docker/Trainer.dockerfile Normal file
View File

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
# syntax=docker/dockerfile:1.7
FROM pytorch/pytorch:2.5.1-cuda12.4-cudnn9-runtime AS gpu
WORKDIR /app
COPY docker/trainer.requirements.txt /tmp/requirements.txt
RUN pip install --no-cache-dir -r /tmp/requirements.txt
# Optional for JAX-on-GPU workflows.
ARG INSTALL_JAX_GPU=false
RUN if [ "${INSTALL_JAX_GPU}" = "true" ]; then \
pip install --no-cache-dir "jax[cuda12]==0.4.30" -f https://storage.googleapis.com/jax-releases/jax_cuda_releases.html; \
fi
COPY --chmod=755 docker/trainer-agent-entrypoint.sh /usr/local/bin/trainer-agent-entrypoint
COPY engine /app/engine
ENV PYTHONPATH=/app \
XLA_PYTHON_CLIENT_PREALLOCATE=false
ENTRYPOINT ["/usr/local/bin/trainer-agent-entrypoint"]
FROM python:3.11-slim AS tpu
WORKDIR /app
COPY docker/trainer.requirements.txt /tmp/requirements.txt
RUN pip install --no-cache-dir -r /tmp/requirements.txt
RUN pip install --no-cache-dir "jax[tpu]==0.4.30" -f https://storage.googleapis.com/jax-releases/libtpu_releases.html
COPY --chmod=755 docker/trainer-agent-entrypoint.sh /usr/local/bin/trainer-agent-entrypoint
COPY engine /app/engine
ENV PYTHONPATH=/app \
PHANTOM_USE_JAX=1 \
PHANTOM_DEFAULT_AGENT_ARGS="--jax" \
XLA_PYTHON_CLIENT_PREALLOCATE=false
ENTRYPOINT ["/usr/local/bin/trainer-agent-entrypoint"]

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
#!/usr/bin/env sh
set -eu
if [ -z "${SWEEP_ID:-}" ]; then
echo "SWEEP_ID is required"
exit 1
fi
set -- python -m engine.train --sweep-agent --sweep-id "${SWEEP_ID}"
if [ -n "${PHANTOM_DEFAULT_AGENT_ARGS:-}" ]; then
set -- "$@" ${PHANTOM_DEFAULT_AGENT_ARGS}
fi
if [ -n "${TRAIN_ARGS:-}" ]; then
set -- "$@" ${TRAIN_ARGS}
fi
if [ "${AGENT_COUNT:-0}" != "0" ]; then
set -- "$@" --count "${AGENT_COUNT}"
fi
exec "$@"

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
numpy>=1.24.0
pandas>=2.0.0
scipy>=1.11.0
gymnasium>=0.29.0
stable-baselines3>=2.2.0
tensorboard>=2.15.0
wandb>=0.17.0
tensorflow-probability==0.24.0
flax==0.10.7
optax==0.2.7
distrax==0.1.5
orbax-checkpoint==0.11.32
chex==0.1.90

21
docs/goals/goals.csv Normal file
View File

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
store_mode,task_name,task_description,definition_of_done
airline,The Indecisive Executive (SEA-LAX),"You are traveling SEA to LAX for business. You prefer Business Class for the comfort, but you need to justify the expense to your company. 1) Find the Business Class option and check its price. 2) Compare it against the Economy option on the same route to see how much money you are saving or spending. 3) Spend some time weighing the pros and cons of the ""Flexible"" fare rule vs the standard one. 4) Ultimately, decide that your comfort is worth it and book the Business Class ticket.","Booking for SEA-LAX Business Class is completed."
airline,The Cross-Country Splurge (LAX-JFK),"You are flying LAX to JFK and want to treat yourself to First Class, but only if it's the right flight. 1) Find the First Class option. 2) thoroughly check the details (duration, arrival time). 3) Compare it with the Business Class option if available, or just look at other departure times to ensure this is the best schedule. 4) After confirming this is the absolute best option, proceed to book First Class.","Booking for LAX-JFK First Class is completed."
airline,The Budget Student (DFW-ORD),"You are a broke student flying DFW to ORD. You have a budget of roughly $200. 1) Find the cheapest Economy flight. 2) Before booking, frantically check if there are any other flights or if the ""Premium"" economy is somehow cheaper (it won't be, but you should check). 3) Hesitate for a moment to consider if you should just drive instead. 4) Resign yourself to the flight and book the Economy ticket.","Booking for DFW-ORD Economy Class is completed."
airline,The Quick Hop Commuter (LAX-SFO),"You need to get from LAX to SFO as fast as possible. Price is secondary to speed. 1) Search for flights and identify the one with the shortest duration (1h 30m). 2) Click into the details to verify the arrival time fits your schedule. 3) briefly explore if there's a Business Class upgrade available for this short flight. 4) Decide to stick with Economy since it's such a short trip and book it.","Booking for LAX-SFO is completed."
airline,The Status Chaser (SFO-SEA),"You are trying to earn airline points and need a ""Premium"" class ticket specifically. 1) Search SFO to SEA. 2) Filter or look for the Premium Economy option. 3) Compare the price gap between Premium and Standard Economy. 4) Browse the details to see if the ""Premium"" fare includes better baggage allowance. 5) Conclude it's worth the points and book the Premium seat.","Booking for SFO-SEA Premium Economy is completed."
airline,The Family Reunion (MIA-ATL),"You are booking for a family of 4 (2 adults, 2 children) flying MIA to ATL. 1) Search for 4 passengers. 2) You prefer Premium, but if the total is too high, you might settle for Economy. 3) Add Premium to your cart, look at the total, and hesitate. 4) Go back and check the Economy price for 4 people. 5) Decide to treat your family and go back to book the Premium option.","Booking for MIA-ATL (Premium) is completed."
airline,The Red Eye Skeptic (LAX-JFK),"You need to fly LAX to JFK but hate late arrivals. 1) Search for the flight and check the arrival time of the First Class option. 2) It arrives early morning (02:15), which worries you. 3) Spend some time looking for other flight options on different days to see if there's a better schedule. 4) Realize this is the only direct option that works and proceed to book it despite the time.","Booking for LAX-JFK is completed."
airline,The Refundable Requirement (ATL-DFW),"Your meeting in Dallas might get cancelled, so you strictly need a ""Refundable"" ticket. 1) Search ATL to DFW. 2) Find the First Class option and verify it lists ""Refundable"". 3) Check the Economy option to see if it is also refundable (it might not be). 4) Weigh the cost difference. 5) Choose the First Class Refundable option for peace of mind.","Booking for ATL-DFW First Class is completed."
airline,The Hub Connector (ORD-MIA),"You are flying ORD to MIA to catch a cruise. You cannot be late. 1) Search for the flight. 2) Verify the ""stops"" is 0 (Direct). 3) Click into details to check the duration. 4) Worry that 3h 30m might be too long in Economy. 5) Look for a Business class option. 6) Decide to save money for the cruise and book Economy.","Booking for ORD-MIA Economy is completed."
airline,The West Coast Hopper (SEA-LAX Business),"You fly this route often and usually pay around $700. 1) Search SEA to LAX. 2) Find the Business Class ticket. 3) Check if the price is near your usual $720 or if it's surged. 4) If it looks expensive, browse other dates to compare. 5) Return to your original desired date and book the Business Class seat.","Booking for SEA-LAX Business is completed."
hotel,The Honeymoon Suite (Presidential),"It is your honeymoon. You want the best room available, specifically one with a ""jacuzzi"". 1) Search for a room for 2 people. 2) Identify the ""Presidential Suite"". 3) Click details to confirm the amenities include a jacuzzi. 4) Browse the ""Executive Suite"" just to see what you are upgrading from. 5) Go back to the Presidential Suite, confirm it's the one you want, and book it.","Booking for the Presidential Suite is completed."
hotel,The Digital Nomad (Executive),"You are working remotely and strictly need a ""workspace"". 1) Search for a room. 2) Check the ""Executive Suite"" details for a workspace. 3) Check the ""Deluxe Room"" to see if it also has a workspace and is cheaper. 4) Compare the images (if available) or amenity lists of both. 5) Decide the Executive Suite looks more comfortable for a week of work and book it.","Booking for the Executive Suite is completed."
hotel,The Safety First (Superior),"You are traveling with valuables and need a ""safe"" in the room. 1) Search for a room. 2) Look at the ""Standard Room"" amenities. Does it have a safe? 3) Look at the ""Superior Room"". Verify it has a safe. 4) Compare the price difference. Is safety worth the extra cost? 5) Decide it is, and book the Superior Room.","Booking for the Superior Room is completed."
hotel,The Bachelor Party (Max Occupancy),"You are booking for 4 guys. You want everyone in one room if possible. 1) Search for 4 adults. 2) Find the room that fits 4 people (Presidential). 3) It looks expensive. Go back and search for 2 adults to see the price of a ""Standard Room"". 4) Calculate if booking two Standard Rooms is cheaper than one Presidential. 5) Decide it's too much hassle to manage two bookings and book the Presidential Suite.","Booking for the Presidential Suite is completed."
hotel,The Budget Refundable (Junior),"You want a cheap room but your dates might change, so it MUST be refundable. 1) Search for a room. 2) Sort by price or find the cheapest options. 3) Check the ""Standard"" and ""Superior"" rooms. Notice they are likely Non-Refundable. 4) Find the ""Junior Suite"" which is Refundable. 5) Grumble about the price difference but book the Junior Suite because you need the flexibility.","Booking for the Junior Suite is completed."
hotel,The View Hunter (Executive),"You want a room with a ""city_view"" or balcony. 1) Search for a room. 2) Check the amenities of the ""Deluxe Room"". 3) Check the amenities of the ""Executive Suite"". 4) Compare the prices. 5) Decide to treat yourself to the Executive Suite for the better view/balcony and book it.","Booking for the Executive Suite is completed."
hotel,The Just-A-Bed (Standard),"You just need a place to crash. Lowest price wins. 1) Search for a room. 2) Identify the absolute cheapest option (Standard Room). 3) Click details just to make sure it has ""wifi"". 4) Briefly glance at the ""Superior Room"" to see if the upgrade is <$10. 5) If not, go back and book the Standard Room immediately.","Booking for the Standard Room is completed."
hotel,The Family Vacation (Deluxe),"You are traveling with a child. You need a room that isn't too cramped but not a suite. 1) Search for 2 adults, 1 child. 2) Look at the ""Deluxe Room"". 3) Check the amenities for ""coffee_maker"" (parents need coffee). 4) Compare it with the ""Junior Suite"". 5) Decide the Deluxe Room is sufficient value and book it.","Booking for the Deluxe Room is completed."
hotel,The Long Stay (Junior),"You are staying for 7 nights. You want something nicer than a standard room but affordable. 1) Search for a room. 2) Look at the ""Junior Suite"". 3) Check the amenities for a ""mini_fridge"" or similar. 4) Compare the total cost for 7 nights against your budget. 5) Hesitate and look at the ""Standard Room"" price. 6) Decide the extra space of the Junior Suite is worth it for a long stay and book it.","Booking for the Junior Suite is completed."
hotel,The Last Minute Panic (Superior),"It's late and you need a room for tonight. 1) Search for a room for 1 person. 2) You recognize the ""Superior Room"" brand. 3) Click it. 4) Quickly verify check-in times or details. 5) Don't overthink it—book the Superior Room as fast as possible.","Booking for the Superior Room is completed."
1 store_mode task_name task_description definition_of_done
2 airline The Indecisive Executive (SEA-LAX) You are traveling SEA to LAX for business. You prefer Business Class for the comfort, but you need to justify the expense to your company. 1) Find the Business Class option and check its price. 2) Compare it against the Economy option on the same route to see how much money you are saving or spending. 3) Spend some time weighing the pros and cons of the "Flexible" fare rule vs the standard one. 4) Ultimately, decide that your comfort is worth it and book the Business Class ticket. Booking for SEA-LAX Business Class is completed.
3 airline The Cross-Country Splurge (LAX-JFK) You are flying LAX to JFK and want to treat yourself to First Class, but only if it's the right flight. 1) Find the First Class option. 2) thoroughly check the details (duration, arrival time). 3) Compare it with the Business Class option if available, or just look at other departure times to ensure this is the best schedule. 4) After confirming this is the absolute best option, proceed to book First Class. Booking for LAX-JFK First Class is completed.
4 airline The Budget Student (DFW-ORD) You are a broke student flying DFW to ORD. You have a budget of roughly $200. 1) Find the cheapest Economy flight. 2) Before booking, frantically check if there are any other flights or if the "Premium" economy is somehow cheaper (it won't be, but you should check). 3) Hesitate for a moment to consider if you should just drive instead. 4) Resign yourself to the flight and book the Economy ticket. Booking for DFW-ORD Economy Class is completed.
5 airline The Quick Hop Commuter (LAX-SFO) You need to get from LAX to SFO as fast as possible. Price is secondary to speed. 1) Search for flights and identify the one with the shortest duration (1h 30m). 2) Click into the details to verify the arrival time fits your schedule. 3) briefly explore if there's a Business Class upgrade available for this short flight. 4) Decide to stick with Economy since it's such a short trip and book it. Booking for LAX-SFO is completed.
6 airline The Status Chaser (SFO-SEA) You are trying to earn airline points and need a "Premium" class ticket specifically. 1) Search SFO to SEA. 2) Filter or look for the Premium Economy option. 3) Compare the price gap between Premium and Standard Economy. 4) Browse the details to see if the "Premium" fare includes better baggage allowance. 5) Conclude it's worth the points and book the Premium seat. Booking for SFO-SEA Premium Economy is completed.
7 airline The Family Reunion (MIA-ATL) You are booking for a family of 4 (2 adults, 2 children) flying MIA to ATL. 1) Search for 4 passengers. 2) You prefer Premium, but if the total is too high, you might settle for Economy. 3) Add Premium to your cart, look at the total, and hesitate. 4) Go back and check the Economy price for 4 people. 5) Decide to treat your family and go back to book the Premium option. Booking for MIA-ATL (Premium) is completed.
8 airline The Red Eye Skeptic (LAX-JFK) You need to fly LAX to JFK but hate late arrivals. 1) Search for the flight and check the arrival time of the First Class option. 2) It arrives early morning (02:15), which worries you. 3) Spend some time looking for other flight options on different days to see if there's a better schedule. 4) Realize this is the only direct option that works and proceed to book it despite the time. Booking for LAX-JFK is completed.
9 airline The Refundable Requirement (ATL-DFW) Your meeting in Dallas might get cancelled, so you strictly need a "Refundable" ticket. 1) Search ATL to DFW. 2) Find the First Class option and verify it lists "Refundable". 3) Check the Economy option to see if it is also refundable (it might not be). 4) Weigh the cost difference. 5) Choose the First Class Refundable option for peace of mind. Booking for ATL-DFW First Class is completed.
10 airline The Hub Connector (ORD-MIA) You are flying ORD to MIA to catch a cruise. You cannot be late. 1) Search for the flight. 2) Verify the "stops" is 0 (Direct). 3) Click into details to check the duration. 4) Worry that 3h 30m might be too long in Economy. 5) Look for a Business class option. 6) Decide to save money for the cruise and book Economy. Booking for ORD-MIA Economy is completed.
11 airline The West Coast Hopper (SEA-LAX Business) You fly this route often and usually pay around $700. 1) Search SEA to LAX. 2) Find the Business Class ticket. 3) Check if the price is near your usual $720 or if it's surged. 4) If it looks expensive, browse other dates to compare. 5) Return to your original desired date and book the Business Class seat. Booking for SEA-LAX Business is completed.
12 hotel The Honeymoon Suite (Presidential) It is your honeymoon. You want the best room available, specifically one with a "jacuzzi". 1) Search for a room for 2 people. 2) Identify the "Presidential Suite". 3) Click details to confirm the amenities include a jacuzzi. 4) Browse the "Executive Suite" just to see what you are upgrading from. 5) Go back to the Presidential Suite, confirm it's the one you want, and book it. Booking for the Presidential Suite is completed.
13 hotel The Digital Nomad (Executive) You are working remotely and strictly need a "workspace". 1) Search for a room. 2) Check the "Executive Suite" details for a workspace. 3) Check the "Deluxe Room" to see if it also has a workspace and is cheaper. 4) Compare the images (if available) or amenity lists of both. 5) Decide the Executive Suite looks more comfortable for a week of work and book it. Booking for the Executive Suite is completed.
14 hotel The Safety First (Superior) You are traveling with valuables and need a "safe" in the room. 1) Search for a room. 2) Look at the "Standard Room" amenities. Does it have a safe? 3) Look at the "Superior Room". Verify it has a safe. 4) Compare the price difference. Is safety worth the extra cost? 5) Decide it is, and book the Superior Room. Booking for the Superior Room is completed.
15 hotel The Bachelor Party (Max Occupancy) You are booking for 4 guys. You want everyone in one room if possible. 1) Search for 4 adults. 2) Find the room that fits 4 people (Presidential). 3) It looks expensive. Go back and search for 2 adults to see the price of a "Standard Room". 4) Calculate if booking two Standard Rooms is cheaper than one Presidential. 5) Decide it's too much hassle to manage two bookings and book the Presidential Suite. Booking for the Presidential Suite is completed.
16 hotel The Budget Refundable (Junior) You want a cheap room but your dates might change, so it MUST be refundable. 1) Search for a room. 2) Sort by price or find the cheapest options. 3) Check the "Standard" and "Superior" rooms. Notice they are likely Non-Refundable. 4) Find the "Junior Suite" which is Refundable. 5) Grumble about the price difference but book the Junior Suite because you need the flexibility. Booking for the Junior Suite is completed.
17 hotel The View Hunter (Executive) You want a room with a "city_view" or balcony. 1) Search for a room. 2) Check the amenities of the "Deluxe Room". 3) Check the amenities of the "Executive Suite". 4) Compare the prices. 5) Decide to treat yourself to the Executive Suite for the better view/balcony and book it. Booking for the Executive Suite is completed.
18 hotel The Just-A-Bed (Standard) You just need a place to crash. Lowest price wins. 1) Search for a room. 2) Identify the absolute cheapest option (Standard Room). 3) Click details just to make sure it has "wifi". 4) Briefly glance at the "Superior Room" to see if the upgrade is <$10. 5) If not, go back and book the Standard Room immediately. Booking for the Standard Room is completed.
19 hotel The Family Vacation (Deluxe) You are traveling with a child. You need a room that isn't too cramped but not a suite. 1) Search for 2 adults, 1 child. 2) Look at the "Deluxe Room". 3) Check the amenities for "coffee_maker" (parents need coffee). 4) Compare it with the "Junior Suite". 5) Decide the Deluxe Room is sufficient value and book it. Booking for the Deluxe Room is completed.
20 hotel The Long Stay (Junior) You are staying for 7 nights. You want something nicer than a standard room but affordable. 1) Search for a room. 2) Look at the "Junior Suite". 3) Check the amenities for a "mini_fridge" or similar. 4) Compare the total cost for 7 nights against your budget. 5) Hesitate and look at the "Standard Room" price. 6) Decide the extra space of the Junior Suite is worth it for a long stay and book it. Booking for the Junior Suite is completed.
21 hotel The Last Minute Panic (Superior) It's late and you need a room for tonight. 1) Search for a room for 1 person. 2) You recognize the "Superior Room" brand. 3) Click it. 4) Quickly verify check-in times or details. 5) Don't overthink it—book the Superior Room as fast as possible. Booking for the Superior Room is completed.

View File

@@ -47,7 +47,7 @@
<meta name="citation_author" content="Rösel, Daniel">
<meta name="citation_publication_date" content="2025">
<meta name="citation_conference_title" content="IE University Bachelor's Thesis">
<meta name="citation_pdf_url" content="TODO">
<meta name="citation_pdf_url" content="https://pub-d5b94a3c29fd40c6b3881946e463fdb7.r2.dev/thesis-latest.pdf">
<!-- Additional SEO -->
<meta name="theme-color" content="#2563eb">
@@ -233,14 +233,13 @@
<div class="is-size-5 publication-authors">
<span class="author-block">IE University<br>Bachelor's Thesis 2025</span>
<span class="eql-cntrb"><small><br>Advisor: <a href="SECOND AUTHOR PERSONAL LINK" target="_blank">Alberto Martín Izquierdo</a></small></span>
<span class="eql-cntrb"><small><br>Advisor: Alberto Martín Izquierdo</small></span>
</div>
<div class="column has-text-centered">
<div class="publication-links">
<!-- TODO: Update with your arXiv paper ID -->
<span class="link-block">
<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/<ARXIV PAPER ID>.pdf" target="_blank"
<a href="https://pub-d5b94a3c29fd40c6b3881946e463fdb7.r2.dev/thesis-latest.pdf" target="_blank"
class="external-link button is-normal is-rounded is-dark">
<span class="icon">
<i class="fas fa-file-pdf"></i>
@@ -315,7 +314,10 @@
<h2 class="title is-3">Abstract</h2>
<div class="content has-text-justified">
<p>
The primary objective of this thesis is to develop and validate pricing heuristics that protect e-commerce platforms from systematic exploitation by Large Language Model (LLM) agents within dynamic pricing environments. As AI agents increasingly mediate consumer transactions, they enable users to circumvent the Cost of Information (the price premium accumulated through demand signal expression) by conducting reconnaissance in isolated sessions before executing purchases through clean sessions at base prices. This research will make an anticipatory contribution by adapting recommendation system methodologies to distinguish between genuine human browsing behaviour and agent-orchestrated information gathering, thereby enabling pricing systems to maintain margin integrity without degrading the user experience for legitimate customers or getting rid of leads generated by LLMs.
This research establishes the following contributions: definition and formalization of non-human transactors in e-commerce platforms, development of a testing-ground for capturing the behavioral essence of these transactors across a large variety of digital systems, construction of a discriminative model to prove separability as a strong learner for downstream mitigation of contamination by non-human entities, translation of such learned separability into existing dynamic pricing machine learning loops, and establishment of a high-level KPI-affecting causal effect and cost-saving framework for the future of internet commerce in the presence of such non-human learners.
</p>
<p>
This work develops behavioral signature models using recommendation system techniques to profile session-level interaction, temporal engagement, and cross-session correlation. The AI Agent market is forecasted to grow from around USD 5-8 billion in 2025 to USD 42-52 billion by 2030, raising the question of how these systems should be designed for future robustness and how to maintain a competitive edge in the analytical components of e-commerce platforms.
</p>
</div>
</div>
@@ -433,8 +435,7 @@
<div class="container">
<h2 class="title">Poster</h2>
<!-- TODO: Replace with your poster PDF -->
<iframe src="static/pdfs/sample.pdf" width="100%" height="550">
<iframe src="https://pub-d5b94a3c29fd40c6b3881946e463fdb7.r2.dev/thesis-latest.pdf" width="100%" height="550">
</iframe>
</div>

View File

@@ -1,66 +1,97 @@
from sys import platform
import numpy as np
from .lib.demand import generate_demand, estimate_demand
from .lib.demand import generate_demand_for_actor, estimate_demand
from .lib.behavior import sample_behavior
from logging import INFO, getLogger
logger = getLogger(__name__)
logger.setLevel(INFO)
class MarketEngine:
"""implements separate demand distributions for humans and agents per Section 3.1.1"""
class MarketEngine():
def __init__(self,
alpha = 0.5,
N = 100,
demand_distribution = (50, 10),
demand_sampling_function = np.random.normal):
self.Nagents = int(N*alpha)
self.Nhumans = int(N*(1-alpha))
self.demand = (demand_sampling_function, demand_distribution)
def __init__(
self,
alpha: float,
N: int,
human_params: tuple,
agent_params: tuple,
demand_distribution=np.random.normal,
noise_std: float = 1.0,
action_weights: dict | None = None,
):
# no defaults for D_H, D_A - force explicit experiment design
self.alpha = alpha
self.N = int(N)
self.Nagents = int(N * alpha)
self.Nhumans = int(N * (1 - alpha))
self.human_params = human_params
self.agent_params = agent_params
self.noise_std = noise_std
self.demand_dist = demand_distribution
self.action_weights = action_weights
def act(self, prices):
demand = generate_demand(prices, *self.demand)
sample_n = lambda n, human: [sample_behavior(demand, human=human) for _ in range(n)]
human_t, agent_t = sample_n(100, True), sample_n(100, False)
trajectories = human_t + agent_t
demand_estimate = estimate_demand(trajectories)
return demand_estimate
# generate separate demands d() per actor type
demand_h = generate_demand_for_actor(
prices,
self.human_params,
self.noise_std,
distribution_method=self.demand_dist,
)
demand_a = generate_demand_for_actor(
prices,
self.agent_params,
self.noise_std,
distribution_method=self.demand_dist,
)
# sample behavior trajectories from each demand distribution
human_t = [sample_behavior(demand_h, human=True) for _ in range(self.Nhumans)]
agent_t = [sample_behavior(demand_a, human=False) for _ in range(self.Nagents)]
# store trajectories for agent probability calculation
self.last_trajectories = human_t + agent_t
return estimate_demand(self.last_trajectories, self.action_weights)
def measure(self):
pass
class PricingEngine():
def __init__(self,
) -> None:
class PricingEngine:
def __init__(
self,
) -> None:
pass
def act(self, demand):
return np.random.uniform(low=25, high=100, size=10)
class Limbo():
def __init__(self,
platform,
market
) -> None:
class Limbo:
def __init__(self, platform, market) -> None:
self.platform_turn = True
self.platform = platform
self.market = market
self.output = None
def step(self):
# we could code golf this a little bit
if self.platform_turn:
self.output = self.platform.act(self.output)
else:
self.output = self.market.act(self.output)
print(self.output)
self.platform_turn = not self.platform_turn
return self.output
def reset(self):
self.platform_turn = True
self.output = None
if __name__ == "__main__":
platform = PricingEngine()
market = MarketEngine()
market = MarketEngine(
alpha=0.3, N=100, human_params=(50, 10), agent_params=(45, 15)
)
limbo = Limbo(platform, market)
for _ in range(10):
limbo.step()

13
engine/jax/__init__.py Normal file
View File

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
"""JAX-compatible training and environment modules for PHANTOM."""
from __future__ import annotations
try:
import jax # noqa: F401
import jax.numpy as jnp # noqa: F401
JAX_AVAILABLE = True
except ImportError:
JAX_AVAILABLE = False
__all__ = ["JAX_AVAILABLE"]

49
engine/jax/checkpoint.py Normal file
View File

@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
"""Orbax checkpoint helpers for JAX training runs."""
from __future__ import annotations
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Any
try:
import orbax.checkpoint as ocp
HAS_ORBAX = True
except ImportError:
HAS_ORBAX = False
def _require_orbax() -> None:
if not HAS_ORBAX:
raise ImportError(
"orbax-checkpoint is required for checkpoint support. "
"Install engine/jax/requirements.txt first."
)
def create_manager(directory: str | Path, max_to_keep: int = 5):
_require_orbax()
root = Path(directory)
root.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
options = ocp.CheckpointManagerOptions(
max_to_keep=max(1, int(max_to_keep)), create=True
)
return ocp.CheckpointManager(root.as_posix(), ocp.PyTreeCheckpointer(), options)
def save(manager, *, step: int, payload: Any) -> bool:
_require_orbax()
return bool(manager.save(int(step), payload))
def latest_step(manager) -> int | None:
_require_orbax()
return manager.latest_step()
def restore(manager, *, target: Any, step: int | None = None) -> Any:
_require_orbax()
step_to_restore = manager.latest_step() if step is None else int(step)
if step_to_restore is None:
return target
return manager.restore(step_to_restore, items=target)

287
engine/jax/env.py Normal file
View File

@@ -0,0 +1,287 @@
"""JAX-native PHANTOM environment with robust contamination step."""
from __future__ import annotations
from typing import NamedTuple
try:
import jax
import jax.numpy as jnp
except ImportError as exc: # pragma: no cover
raise ImportError("engine.jax.env requires JAX") from exc
from .primitives import (
_sample_sessions_jax,
agent_probability_from_kl,
batch_kl,
compute_session_transitions,
load_transition_data,
purchase_flags,
reward_with_coi_penalty,
revenue_from_demand,
weighted_demand,
)
class EnvParams(NamedTuple):
n_products: int
n_sessions: int
max_episode_steps: int
max_session_steps: int
price_low: float
price_high: float
lambda_coi: float
info_value: float
robust_radius: float
margin_floor: float
margin_floor_patience: int
action_scales: jax.Array
alpha_nominal: float
alpha_candidates: jax.Array
human_T: jax.Array
agent_T: jax.Array
terminal_mask: jax.Array
purchase_mask: jax.Array
event_weights: jax.Array
start_idx: int
term_idx: int
class EnvState(NamedTuple):
prices: jax.Array
demand: jax.Array
step_count: jax.Array
low_margin_streak: jax.Array
last_agent_prob: jax.Array
last_alpha_adv: jax.Array
class CandidateEval(NamedTuple):
reward: jax.Array
revenue: jax.Array
demand: jax.Array
agent_prob: jax.Array
leakage: jax.Array
discount: jax.Array
n_purchases: jax.Array
n_agents: jax.Array
def make_env_params(
*,
n_products: int,
alpha: float,
n_sessions: int,
lambda_coi: float,
robust_radius: float,
robust_points: int,
info_value: float,
action_levels: int,
action_scale_low: float,
action_scale_high: float,
price_low: float,
price_high: float,
max_episode_steps: int,
max_session_steps: int = 40,
margin_floor: float = 0.05,
margin_floor_patience: int = 5,
prefer_behavior_data: bool = True,
) -> EnvParams:
transition = load_transition_data(prefer_data=prefer_behavior_data).to_jax()
if robust_radius <= 0.0 or robust_points <= 1:
alpha_candidates = jnp.asarray([float(alpha)], dtype=jnp.float32)
else:
lo = max(0.0, float(alpha) - float(robust_radius))
hi = min(1.0, float(alpha) + float(robust_radius))
alpha_candidates = jnp.linspace(lo, hi, int(robust_points), dtype=jnp.float32)
action_scales = jnp.linspace(
float(action_scale_low),
float(action_scale_high),
int(action_levels),
dtype=jnp.float32,
)
return EnvParams(
n_products=int(n_products),
n_sessions=int(n_sessions),
max_episode_steps=int(max_episode_steps),
max_session_steps=int(max_session_steps),
price_low=float(price_low),
price_high=float(price_high),
lambda_coi=float(lambda_coi),
info_value=float(info_value),
robust_radius=float(robust_radius),
margin_floor=float(margin_floor),
margin_floor_patience=int(margin_floor_patience),
action_scales=action_scales,
alpha_nominal=float(alpha),
alpha_candidates=alpha_candidates,
human_T=jnp.asarray(transition.human_T),
agent_T=jnp.asarray(transition.agent_T),
terminal_mask=jnp.asarray(transition.terminal_mask),
purchase_mask=jnp.asarray(transition.purchase_mask),
event_weights=jnp.asarray(transition.event_weights),
start_idx=int(transition.start_idx),
term_idx=int(transition.term_idx),
)
def _flatten_obs(demand: jax.Array, prices: jax.Array) -> jax.Array:
return jnp.concatenate([demand.astype(jnp.float32), prices.astype(jnp.float32)])
def _decode_action(
prices: jax.Array, action: jax.Array, params: EnvParams
) -> jax.Array:
idx = jnp.clip(action.astype(jnp.int32), 0, params.action_scales.shape[0] - 1)
scale = params.action_scales[idx]
next_prices = prices * scale
return jnp.clip(next_prices, params.price_low, params.price_high)
def _evaluate_candidate(
key: jax.Array,
alpha_candidate: jax.Array,
prices: jax.Array,
params: EnvParams,
) -> CandidateEval:
states, products, actors, lengths = _sample_sessions_jax(
key,
params.human_T,
params.agent_T,
params.terminal_mask,
params.start_idx,
params.term_idx,
alpha_candidate,
params.n_products,
params.n_sessions,
params.max_session_steps,
int(params.human_T.shape[0]),
)
session_trans = compute_session_transitions(
states, lengths, int(params.human_T.shape[0])
)
delta_h, delta_a = batch_kl(session_trans, params.human_T, params.agent_T)
agent_probs = agent_probability_from_kl(delta_h, delta_a)
agent_prob = jnp.mean(agent_probs)
demand = weighted_demand(states, products, params.n_products, params.event_weights)
revenue = revenue_from_demand(prices, demand)
reward, leakage, discount = reward_with_coi_penalty(
revenue,
agent_prob,
params.lambda_coi,
params.info_value,
)
purchases = purchase_flags(states, params.purchase_mask)
return CandidateEval(
reward=reward,
revenue=revenue,
demand=demand,
agent_prob=agent_prob,
leakage=leakage,
discount=discount,
n_purchases=jnp.sum(purchases.astype(jnp.float32)),
n_agents=jnp.sum(actors.astype(jnp.float32)),
)
def reset_env(key: jax.Array, params: EnvParams) -> tuple[jax.Array, EnvState]:
prices = jax.random.uniform(
key,
shape=(params.n_products,),
minval=params.price_low,
maxval=params.price_high,
)
demand = jnp.zeros((params.n_products,), dtype=jnp.float32)
state = EnvState(
prices=prices,
demand=demand,
step_count=jnp.asarray(0, dtype=jnp.int32),
low_margin_streak=jnp.asarray(0, dtype=jnp.int32),
last_agent_prob=jnp.asarray(params.alpha_nominal, dtype=jnp.float32),
last_alpha_adv=jnp.asarray(params.alpha_nominal, dtype=jnp.float32),
)
return _flatten_obs(demand, prices), state
def step_env(
key: jax.Array,
state: EnvState,
action: jax.Array,
params: EnvParams,
) -> tuple[jax.Array, EnvState, jax.Array, jax.Array, dict[str, jax.Array]]:
prices = _decode_action(state.prices, action, params)
n_candidates = params.alpha_candidates.shape[0]
cand_keys = jax.random.split(key, n_candidates)
evals = jax.vmap(
lambda k, a: _evaluate_candidate(k, a, prices, params),
in_axes=(0, 0),
)(cand_keys, params.alpha_candidates)
idx = jnp.argmin(evals.reward)
demand = evals.demand[idx]
reward = evals.reward[idx]
revenue = evals.revenue[idx]
agent_prob = evals.agent_prob[idx]
leakage = evals.leakage[idx]
discount = evals.discount[idx]
n_purchases = evals.n_purchases[idx]
n_agents = evals.n_agents[idx]
alpha_adv = params.alpha_candidates[idx]
step_count = state.step_count + 1
avg_price = jnp.maximum(jnp.mean(prices), 1e-6)
avg_margin = (avg_price - params.price_low) / avg_price
next_streak = jnp.where(
avg_margin < params.margin_floor, state.low_margin_streak + 1, 0
)
margin_collapsed = next_streak >= params.margin_floor_patience
done = (step_count >= params.max_episode_steps) | margin_collapsed
next_state = EnvState(
prices=prices,
demand=demand,
step_count=step_count,
low_margin_streak=next_streak,
last_agent_prob=agent_prob,
last_alpha_adv=alpha_adv,
)
obs = _flatten_obs(demand, prices)
info = {
"revenue": revenue,
"agent_prob": agent_prob,
"alpha_adv": alpha_adv,
"coi_leakage": leakage,
"coi_discount": discount,
"n_purchases": n_purchases,
"n_agents": n_agents,
"avg_margin": avg_margin,
}
return obs, next_state, reward, done, info
class PHANTOMJAXEnv:
def __init__(self, params: EnvParams):
self.params = params
def reset(self, key: jax.Array, params: EnvParams | None = None):
return reset_env(key, self.params if params is None else params)
def step(
self,
key: jax.Array,
state: EnvState,
action: jax.Array,
params: EnvParams | None = None,
):
return step_env(key, state, action, self.params if params is None else params)
def action_space_n(self, params: EnvParams | None = None) -> int:
p = self.params if params is None else params
return int(p.action_scales.shape[0])
def observation_dim(self, params: EnvParams | None = None) -> int:
p = self.params if params is None else params
return int(p.n_products * 2)

495
engine/jax/primitives.py Normal file
View File

@@ -0,0 +1,495 @@
"""JAX-compatible primitives for PHANTOM session simulation and separability."""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass
from functools import partial
from typing import Mapping, Sequence
import numpy as np
try:
import jax
import jax.numpy as jnp
JAX_AVAILABLE = True
except ImportError:
jax = None # type: ignore[assignment]
jnp = np # type: ignore[assignment]
JAX_AVAILABLE = False
STATE_START_KEYS = ("session_start", "start")
TERMINAL_EVENT_TOKENS = (
"session_end",
"end",
"purchase_complete",
"checkout_start",
"checkout",
)
PURCHASE_EVENT_TOKENS = (
"purchase_complete",
"purchase",
"checkout_start",
"checkout",
)
CATEGORY_WEIGHTS = {"cart": 4.0, "dwell": 2.0, "nav": 1.0, "filter": 0.5}
ACTION_CATEGORIES = {
"cart": {"add_item", "add_to_cart", "remove", "checkout", "purchase"},
"dwell": {
"hover_title",
"hover_paragraph",
"hover_link",
"hover_over_title",
"hover_over_paragraph",
"hover_over_link",
"hover_over_button",
},
"nav": {
"page_view",
"view_item",
"view",
"learn_more",
"learn_more_about_item",
"view_item_page",
"session_start",
},
"filter": {
"search",
"filter_date",
"filter_price",
"sort",
"filter_for_date",
"filter_for_price",
"filter_for_amenities",
"sort_change",
},
}
DEFAULT_ACTION_WEIGHTS = {
action: CATEGORY_WEIGHTS[group]
for group, actions in ACTION_CATEGORIES.items()
for action in actions
}
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class TransitionData:
"""Dense transition kernels and per-state metadata."""
human_T: np.ndarray
agent_T: np.ndarray
terminal_mask: np.ndarray
purchase_mask: np.ndarray
event_weights: np.ndarray
event_names: tuple[str, ...]
start_idx: int
term_idx: int
def to_jax(self) -> "TransitionData":
if not JAX_AVAILABLE:
return self
return TransitionData(
human_T=jnp.asarray(self.human_T),
agent_T=jnp.asarray(self.agent_T),
terminal_mask=jnp.asarray(self.terminal_mask),
purchase_mask=jnp.asarray(self.purchase_mask),
event_weights=jnp.asarray(self.event_weights),
event_names=self.event_names,
start_idx=int(self.start_idx),
term_idx=int(self.term_idx),
)
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class SessionBatch:
states: np.ndarray
products: np.ndarray
actors: np.ndarray
lengths: np.ndarray
def _event_weight(name: str) -> float:
if name in DEFAULT_ACTION_WEIGHTS:
return float(DEFAULT_ACTION_WEIGHTS[name])
if name.startswith("hover"):
return float(CATEGORY_WEIGHTS["dwell"])
if name.startswith("filter") or name in {"search", "sort", "sort_change"}:
return float(CATEGORY_WEIGHTS["filter"])
if name.startswith("add") or name in {
"checkout",
"checkout_start",
"purchase",
"remove_item",
"purchase_complete",
}:
return float(CATEGORY_WEIGHTS["cart"])
if any(token in name for token in TERMINAL_EVENT_TOKENS):
return 0.0
return float(CATEGORY_WEIGHTS["nav"])
def _is_terminal(name: str) -> bool:
return any(token in name for token in TERMINAL_EVENT_TOKENS)
def _is_purchase(name: str) -> bool:
return any(token in name for token in PURCHASE_EVENT_TOKENS)
def _collect_events(*transitions: Mapping[str, Mapping[str, float]]) -> tuple[str, ...]:
names: set[str] = set()
for trans in transitions:
for src, dsts in trans.items():
names.add(src)
names.update(dsts.keys())
names.discard("__terminal__")
return tuple(sorted(names))
def _normalize_rows(matrix: np.ndarray, term_idx: int) -> np.ndarray:
row_sums = matrix.sum(axis=1, keepdims=True)
dead_rows = np.isclose(row_sums.squeeze(-1), 0.0)
if np.any(dead_rows):
matrix[dead_rows] = 0.0
matrix[dead_rows, term_idx] = 1.0
row_sums = matrix.sum(axis=1, keepdims=True)
return matrix / np.maximum(row_sums, 1e-8)
def _dense_from_dict(
transitions: Mapping[str, Mapping[str, float]],
event_to_idx: Mapping[str, int],
term_idx: int,
) -> np.ndarray:
n_states = len(event_to_idx)
matrix = np.zeros((n_states, n_states), dtype=np.float32)
for src, dsts in transitions.items():
i = event_to_idx.get(src)
if i is None:
continue
for dst, prob in dsts.items():
j = event_to_idx.get(dst)
if j is None:
continue
matrix[i, j] += float(prob)
return _normalize_rows(matrix, term_idx)
def compile_transition_data(
human_transitions: Mapping[str, Mapping[str, float]],
agent_transitions: Mapping[str, Mapping[str, float]],
) -> TransitionData:
event_names = _collect_events(human_transitions, agent_transitions)
if not event_names:
return fallback_transition_data()
event_names = tuple([*event_names, "__terminal__"])
term_idx = len(event_names) - 1
event_to_idx = {name: i for i, name in enumerate(event_names)}
human_T = _dense_from_dict(human_transitions, event_to_idx, term_idx)
agent_T = _dense_from_dict(agent_transitions, event_to_idx, term_idx)
terminal_mask = np.array([_is_terminal(name) for name in event_names], dtype=bool)
purchase_mask = np.array([_is_purchase(name) for name in event_names], dtype=bool)
event_weights = np.array(
[_event_weight(name) for name in event_names], dtype=np.float32
)
terminal_mask[term_idx] = True
for idx, is_term in enumerate(terminal_mask):
if not is_term:
continue
human_T[idx] = 0.0
agent_T[idx] = 0.0
human_T[idx, idx] = 1.0
agent_T[idx, idx] = 1.0
start_idx = 0
for key in STATE_START_KEYS:
if key in event_to_idx:
start_idx = int(event_to_idx[key])
break
return TransitionData(
human_T=human_T,
agent_T=agent_T,
terminal_mask=terminal_mask,
purchase_mask=purchase_mask,
event_weights=event_weights,
event_names=event_names,
start_idx=start_idx,
term_idx=term_idx,
)
def fallback_transition_data() -> TransitionData:
human = {
"session_start": {
"page_view": 0.80,
"view_item_page": 0.15,
"session_end": 0.05,
},
"page_view": {"view_item_page": 0.55, "search": 0.25, "session_end": 0.20},
"view_item_page": {
"learn_more_about_item": 0.40,
"add_item_to_cart": 0.28,
"session_end": 0.32,
},
"learn_more_about_item": {
"add_item_to_cart": 0.50,
"view_item_page": 0.30,
"session_end": 0.20,
},
"add_item_to_cart": {
"checkout_start": 0.58,
"view_item_page": 0.24,
"session_end": 0.18,
},
"checkout_start": {"purchase_complete": 0.70, "session_end": 0.30},
"purchase_complete": {"session_end": 1.0},
}
agent = {
"session_start": {
"page_view": 0.90,
"view_item_page": 0.08,
"session_end": 0.02,
},
"page_view": {"view_item_page": 0.40, "search": 0.35, "session_end": 0.25},
"view_item_page": {
"learn_more_about_item": 0.55,
"add_item_to_cart": 0.15,
"session_end": 0.30,
},
"learn_more_about_item": {
"view_item_page": 0.45,
"add_item_to_cart": 0.20,
"session_end": 0.35,
},
"add_item_to_cart": {
"checkout_start": 0.42,
"view_item_page": 0.28,
"session_end": 0.30,
},
"checkout_start": {"purchase_complete": 0.52, "session_end": 0.48},
"purchase_complete": {"session_end": 1.0},
}
return compile_transition_data(human, agent)
def load_transition_data(prefer_data: bool = True) -> TransitionData:
if not prefer_data:
return fallback_transition_data()
try:
from ..lib.behavior import get_transition_models
human_trans, agent_trans = get_transition_models()
return compile_transition_data(human_trans, agent_trans)
except Exception:
return fallback_transition_data()
if JAX_AVAILABLE:
@partial(jax.jit, static_argnums=(8, 9, 10))
def _sample_sessions_jax(
key: jax.Array,
human_T: jax.Array,
agent_T: jax.Array,
terminal_mask: jax.Array,
start_idx: int,
term_idx: int,
alpha: float,
n_products: int,
n_sessions: int,
max_steps: int,
n_states: int,
) -> tuple[jax.Array, jax.Array, jax.Array, jax.Array]:
k_actor, k_product, k_step = jax.random.split(key, 3)
start_idx_i32 = jnp.asarray(start_idx, dtype=jnp.int32)
term_idx_i32 = jnp.asarray(term_idx, dtype=jnp.int32)
actor_draw = jax.random.uniform(k_actor, (n_sessions,))
actors = (actor_draw < alpha).astype(jnp.int32)
products = jax.random.randint(
k_product, (n_sessions,), 0, n_products, dtype=jnp.int32
)
active_init = jnp.ones((n_sessions,), dtype=jnp.bool_)
state_init = jnp.full((n_sessions,), start_idx_i32, dtype=jnp.int32)
def _scan_step(carry, _):
states, active, rng = carry
rng, k = jax.random.split(rng)
probs_h = human_T[states]
probs_a = agent_T[states]
probs = jnp.where(actors[:, None] == 0, probs_h, probs_a)
next_state = jax.random.categorical(k, jnp.log(probs + 1e-10), axis=-1)
next_state = jnp.where(active, next_state, term_idx_i32)
emitted = jnp.where(active, next_state, -1)
is_terminal = terminal_mask[jnp.clip(next_state, 0, n_states - 1)]
next_active = active & (~is_terminal)
carry_states = jnp.where(next_active, next_state, term_idx_i32)
return (carry_states, next_active, rng), emitted
_, state_t = jax.lax.scan(
_scan_step, (state_init, active_init, k_step), None, length=max_steps
)
states = state_t.T
lengths = jnp.sum(states >= 0, axis=1, dtype=jnp.int32)
return states, products, actors, lengths
def sample_sessions(
key,
transition_data: TransitionData,
alpha: float,
n_products: int,
n_sessions: int,
max_steps: int,
) -> SessionBatch:
if JAX_AVAILABLE:
td = transition_data.to_jax()
states, products, actors, lengths = _sample_sessions_jax(
key,
td.human_T,
td.agent_T,
td.terminal_mask,
int(td.start_idx),
int(td.term_idx),
float(alpha),
int(n_products),
int(n_sessions),
int(max_steps),
int(td.human_T.shape[0]),
)
return SessionBatch(
states=states, products=products, actors=actors, lengths=lengths
)
rng = np.random.default_rng(int(np.asarray(key).reshape(-1)[0]))
n_states = transition_data.human_T.shape[0]
products = rng.integers(0, n_products, size=n_sessions, dtype=np.int32)
actors = (rng.random(size=n_sessions) < alpha).astype(np.int32)
states = np.full((n_sessions, max_steps), -1, dtype=np.int32)
lengths = np.zeros((n_sessions,), dtype=np.int32)
for i in range(n_sessions):
current = int(transition_data.start_idx)
mat = transition_data.agent_T if actors[i] == 1 else transition_data.human_T
for t in range(max_steps):
nxt = int(rng.choice(n_states, p=mat[current]))
states[i, t] = nxt
if transition_data.terminal_mask[nxt]:
lengths[i] = t + 1
break
current = nxt
if lengths[i] == 0:
lengths[i] = max_steps
return SessionBatch(
states=states, products=products, actors=actors, lengths=lengths
)
if JAX_AVAILABLE:
@partial(jax.jit, static_argnums=(2,))
def compute_session_transitions(states, lengths, n_states: int):
src = states[:, :-1]
dst = states[:, 1:]
time_idx = jnp.arange(src.shape[1])[None, :]
valid = (src >= 0) & (dst >= 0) & (time_idx < (lengths[:, None] - 1))
src_clip = jnp.clip(src, 0, n_states - 1)
dst_clip = jnp.clip(dst, 0, n_states - 1)
src_oh = jax.nn.one_hot(src_clip, n_states)
dst_oh = jax.nn.one_hot(dst_clip, n_states)
counts = jnp.einsum(
"nti,ntj,nt->nij", src_oh, dst_oh, valid.astype(jnp.float32)
)
row_sums = jnp.sum(counts, axis=-1, keepdims=True)
return counts / (row_sums + 1e-10)
else:
def compute_session_transitions(states, lengths, n_states: int):
trans = np.zeros((states.shape[0], n_states, n_states), dtype=np.float32)
for i in range(states.shape[0]):
for t in range(max(int(lengths[i]) - 1, 0)):
s = int(states[i, t])
d = int(states[i, t + 1])
if s >= 0 and d >= 0:
trans[i, s, d] += 1.0
row_sums = trans.sum(axis=-1, keepdims=True)
return trans / (row_sums + 1e-10)
def batch_kl(P, Q_human, Q_agent, eps: float = 1e-10):
p = P + eps
p = p / jnp.sum(p, axis=-1, keepdims=True)
qh = Q_human[None, ...] + eps
qa = Q_agent[None, ...] + eps
delta_h = jnp.sum(p * jnp.log(p / qh), axis=(1, 2))
delta_a = jnp.sum(p * jnp.log(p / qa), axis=(1, 2))
return delta_h, delta_a
if JAX_AVAILABLE:
batch_kl = jax.jit(batch_kl)
def agent_probability_from_kl(delta_h, delta_a, temperature: float = 1.0):
t = jnp.maximum(float(temperature), 1e-6)
exp_h = jnp.exp(-delta_h / t)
exp_a = jnp.exp(-delta_a / t)
return exp_a / (exp_h + exp_a + 1e-10)
def estimate_alpha_from_kl(delta_h, delta_a, beta: float = 2.0):
logits = beta * (delta_h - delta_a)
return 1.0 / (1.0 + jnp.exp(-logits))
def weighted_demand(states, products, n_products: int, event_weights):
valid = states >= 0
state_clip = jnp.clip(states, 0, event_weights.shape[0] - 1)
weights = event_weights[state_clip] * valid
per_session = jnp.sum(weights, axis=1)
demand = jnp.zeros((n_products,), dtype=jnp.float32)
demand = demand.at[products].add(per_session)
total = jnp.sum(demand)
return jnp.where(total > 0.0, (demand / total) * 100.0, demand)
if JAX_AVAILABLE:
weighted_demand = jax.jit(weighted_demand, static_argnums=(2,))
def purchase_flags(states, purchase_mask):
state_clip = jnp.clip(states, 0, purchase_mask.shape[0] - 1)
hits = purchase_mask[state_clip] & (states >= 0)
return jnp.any(hits, axis=1)
if JAX_AVAILABLE:
purchase_flags = jax.jit(purchase_flags)
def revenue_from_demand(prices, demand):
return jnp.dot(prices, demand)
if JAX_AVAILABLE:
revenue_from_demand = jax.jit(revenue_from_demand)
def reward_with_coi_penalty(
revenue, agent_prob: float, lambda_coi: float, info_value: float
):
leakage = agent_prob * info_value
discount = jnp.clip(1.0 - lambda_coi * leakage, 0.0, 1.0)
return revenue * discount, leakage, discount
if JAX_AVAILABLE:
reward_with_coi_penalty = jax.jit(reward_with_coi_penalty)

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
flax==0.10.7
optax==0.2.7
distrax==0.1.5
orbax-checkpoint==0.11.32
chex==0.1.90

1319
engine/jax/train.py Normal file

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

View File

@@ -1,3 +1,14 @@
from .demand import generate_demand, estimate_demand
from .behavior import sample_behavior
from .demand import estimate_demand, estimate_weighted_demand, generate_demand_for_actor
from .behavior import sample_behavior, get_transition_models, trajectory_to_events
from .render import DashboardRenderer, style_axis
from .wrappers import EconomicMetricsWrapper
from .callbacks import MetricsCallback, EvalMetricsCallback, CheckpointArtifactCallback
from .providers import (
ProviderBenchmark,
ProviderResult,
BenchmarkConfig,
RandomBaseline,
SurgeBaseline,
)
from .coi import compute_uplift_coi, extract_purchases, compute_agent_probability
from .discrete import EventQTable

View File

@@ -1,27 +1,107 @@
from sim.rl.behavior_loader.models import BehaviorModel, AgentBehaviorModel, aggregate_event_transitions
import sys
from pathlib import Path
sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).parents[2]))
try:
from sim.rl.behavior_loader.models import (
BehaviorModel,
AgentBehaviorModel,
aggregate_event_transitions,
)
except ImportError:
BehaviorModel = None
AgentBehaviorModel = None
aggregate_event_transitions = None
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from .demand import generate_demand
from .demand import generate_demand_for_actor
base_dir = "/home/velocitatem/Documents/Projects/PHANTOM/experiments"
human_dir, agent_dir = f"{base_dir}/collected_data/", f"{base_dir}/agents/collected_data/"
base_dir = Path(__file__).parents[2] / "experiments"
human_dir = str(base_dir / "collected_data")
agent_dir = str(base_dir / "agents" / "collected_data")
_cache = {} # lazy cache for models and base pivots
def _get_base_pivot(human: bool):
key = 'human' if human else 'agent'
if (
BehaviorModel is None
or AgentBehaviorModel is None
or aggregate_event_transitions is None
):
raise ImportError("behavior loader dependencies are unavailable")
key = "human" if human else "agent"
if key not in _cache:
model = BehaviorModel(human_dir) if human else AgentBehaviorModel(agent_dir)
mdp = model.build_MDP()
_cache[key] = pd.DataFrame(aggregate_event_transitions(mdp)).fillna(0.0)
return _cache[key]
def get_transition_models():
"""load human and agent transition models for agent probability calculation
returns:
tuple: (human_transitions, agent_transitions) as dicts of event->event->prob
"""
if (
BehaviorModel is None
or AgentBehaviorModel is None
or aggregate_event_transitions is None
):
raise ImportError("behavior loader dependencies are unavailable")
human_model = BehaviorModel(human_dir)
agent_model = AgentBehaviorModel(agent_dir)
human_mdp = human_model.build_MDP()
agent_mdp = agent_model.build_MDP()
human_trans = aggregate_event_transitions(human_mdp)
agent_trans = aggregate_event_transitions(agent_mdp)
return human_trans, agent_trans
def trajectory_to_events(trajectory: list) -> list:
"""extract event names from trajectory for KL divergence calculation
trajectories are in format 'eventName_product0', extract just eventName
args:
trajectory: list like ['view_product0', 'add_to_cart_product1', 'checkout_product1']
returns:
list: event names like ['view', 'add_to_cart', 'checkout']
"""
events = []
for state in trajectory:
# state format from sample_behavior: 'eventName_productX'
if "_product" in state:
event = state.rsplit("_product", 1)[0]
else:
event = state
events.append(event)
return events
def adjust_behavior_to_condition(condition, transition_matrix):
# expand NxN transition matrix to (N*P)x(N*P) weighted by demand condition
cond_norm = condition / np.sum(condition)
condition = np.asarray(condition, dtype=float)
condition = np.nan_to_num(condition, nan=0.0, posinf=0.0, neginf=0.0)
condition = np.clip(condition, 0.0, None)
s = float(np.sum(condition))
if not np.isfinite(s) or s <= 0:
cond_norm = np.full(len(condition), 1.0 / max(len(condition), 1), dtype=float)
else:
cond_norm = condition / s
n_products = len(condition)
base_vals = transition_matrix.values
base_cols, base_rows = transition_matrix.columns.tolist(), transition_matrix.index.tolist()
base_cols, base_rows = (
transition_matrix.columns.tolist(),
transition_matrix.index.tolist(),
)
# expand via kronecker-like tiling: each cell becomes a P*P block weighted by outer product of cond_norm
expanded = np.kron(base_vals, np.outer(cond_norm, cond_norm))
@@ -29,19 +109,26 @@ def adjust_behavior_to_condition(condition, transition_matrix):
new_rows = [f"{r}_product{p}" for r in base_rows for p in range(n_products)]
return pd.DataFrame(expanded, index=new_rows, columns=new_cols)
def sample_behavior(condition, human=True, max_len=40):
base_pivot = _get_base_pivot(human)
adjusted_transitions = adjust_behavior_to_condition(condition, base_pivot)
trajectory = [np.random.choice(adjusted_transitions.index)]
while len(trajectory) < max_len or 'checkout' in trajectory[-1]:
probs = adjusted_transitions.loc[trajectory[-1]].values
sample = np.random.choice(adjusted_transitions.columns, p=probs/np.sum(probs) if np.sum(probs) > 0 else None)
while len(trajectory) < max_len and "checkout" not in trajectory[-1]:
probs = np.asarray(adjusted_transitions.loc[trajectory[-1]].values, dtype=float)
probs = np.nan_to_num(probs, nan=0.0, posinf=0.0, neginf=0.0)
probs = np.clip(probs, 0.0, None)
s = float(np.sum(probs))
sample = np.random.choice(
adjusted_transitions.columns, p=(probs / s) if s > 0 else None
)
trajectory.append(sample)
return trajectory
if __name__ == "__main__":
t=sample_behavior(generate_demand(np.array([10,20,30])), human=True)
t = sample_behavior(generate_demand_for_actor(np.array([10, 20, 30])), human=True)
print(t)
t=sample_behavior(generate_demand(np.array([10,20,30])), human=False)
t = sample_behavior(generate_demand_for_actor(np.array([10, 20, 30])), human=False)
print(t)

182
engine/lib/callbacks.py Normal file
View File

@@ -0,0 +1,182 @@
"""Training callbacks for W&B/TensorBoard logging - reads from info dict."""
from pathlib import Path
from stable_baselines3.common.callbacks import BaseCallback, EvalCallback
import numpy as np
from ..wandb_checkpoint import checkpoint_artifact_name, log_checkpoint_file
try:
import wandb
HAS_WANDB = True
except ImportError:
HAS_WANDB = False
class MetricsCallback(BaseCallback):
"""Training metrics logger - reads info['economics'], logs to W&B."""
def __init__(
self, log_histograms: bool = True, log_freq: int = 100, verbose: int = 0
):
super().__init__(verbose)
self.log_histograms = log_histograms
self.log_freq = log_freq
self._episode_revenues: list[float] = []
def _on_step(self) -> bool:
if not HAS_WANDB or wandb.run is None:
return True
for info in self.locals.get("infos", []):
if "economics" not in info:
continue
econ = info["economics"]
t = self.num_timesteps
payload = {
"economics/revenue": econ["revenue"],
"economics/margin": econ["margin"],
"coi/level": econ["coi_level"],
"economics/regret": econ["regret"],
}
if "coi_mix" in econ:
payload["coi/mix"] = econ["coi_mix"]
if "coi_base" in econ:
payload["coi/base"] = econ["coi_base"]
if "coi_leakage" in econ:
payload["coi/leakage"] = econ["coi_leakage"]
if "coi_penalty" in econ:
payload["coi/penalty"] = econ["coi_penalty"]
wandb.log(payload, step=t)
self._episode_revenues.append(econ["revenue"])
# histograms at log_freq intervals
if self.log_histograms and self.num_timesteps % self.log_freq == 0:
for info in self.locals.get("infos", []):
if "prices" in info:
wandb.log(
{"distributions/prices": wandb.Histogram(info["prices"])},
step=self.num_timesteps,
)
if "demand" in info:
wandb.log(
{"distributions/demand": wandb.Histogram(info["demand"])},
step=self.num_timesteps,
)
return True
def _on_rollout_end(self) -> None:
if not HAS_WANDB or wandb.run is None or not self._episode_revenues:
return
wandb.log(
{
"episode/mean_revenue": np.mean(self._episode_revenues),
"episode/total_revenue": np.sum(self._episode_revenues),
},
step=self.num_timesteps,
)
self._episode_revenues = []
class CheckpointArtifactCallback(BaseCallback):
"""Periodic SB3 checkpoint uploader backed by W&B artifacts."""
def __init__(self, cfg: dict, interval: int = 10_000, verbose: int = 0):
super().__init__(verbose)
self.cfg = dict(cfg)
self.interval = max(1, int(interval))
self.model_dir = Path(str(self.cfg.get("model_dir", "engine/models")))
self.model_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
self._next_checkpoint = self.interval
self._last_saved_step = -1
def _artifact_name(self) -> str:
sweep_id = (
getattr(wandb.run, "sweep_id", None)
if HAS_WANDB and wandb.run is not None
else None
)
return checkpoint_artifact_name(self.cfg, backend="sb3", sweep_id=sweep_id)
def _checkpoint_file(self) -> Path:
algo = str(self.cfg.get("algo", "model"))
base = self.model_dir / f"phantom_{algo}_checkpoint"
self.model.save(str(base))
return base.with_suffix(".zip")
def _save_checkpoint(self) -> None:
if not HAS_WANDB or wandb.run is None:
return
step = int(self.num_timesteps)
if step <= self._last_saved_step:
return
checkpoint_path = self._checkpoint_file()
metadata = {
"step": step,
"algo": str(self.cfg.get("algo", "unknown")),
"sweep_id": getattr(wandb.run, "sweep_id", None),
}
saved = log_checkpoint_file(
self._artifact_name(),
file_path=checkpoint_path,
artifact_file_name=checkpoint_path.name,
metadata=metadata,
)
if saved:
self._last_saved_step = step
def _on_step(self) -> bool:
if self.num_timesteps < self._next_checkpoint:
return True
self._save_checkpoint()
while self._next_checkpoint <= self.num_timesteps:
self._next_checkpoint += self.interval
return True
def _on_training_end(self) -> None:
self._save_checkpoint()
class EvalMetricsCallback(EvalCallback):
"""Deterministic evaluation - true performance without exploration noise."""
def __init__(
self, eval_env, eval_freq: int = 1000, n_eval_episodes: int = 5, **kwargs
):
super().__init__(
eval_env, eval_freq=eval_freq, n_eval_episodes=n_eval_episodes, **kwargs
)
self._eval_revenues: list[float] = []
def _on_step(self) -> bool:
result = super()._on_step()
if not HAS_WANDB or wandb.run is None:
return result
# log eval metrics after evaluation runs
if self.n_calls % self.eval_freq == 0 and hasattr(self, "last_mean_reward"):
wandb.log(
{
"eval/mean_reward": self.last_mean_reward,
"eval/mean_revenue": np.mean(self._eval_revenues)
if self._eval_revenues
else 0,
},
step=self.num_timesteps,
)
self._eval_revenues = []
return result
def _log_success_callback(self, locals_: dict, globals_: dict) -> None:
# called after each eval episode
info = locals_.get("info", {})
if "economics" in info:
self._eval_revenues.append(info["economics"]["revenue"])

76
engine/lib/coi.py Normal file
View File

@@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
import numpy as np
from typing import Dict
def compute_agent_probability(
trajectory: list, human_transitions: Dict, agent_transitions: Dict
) -> float:
"""estimate agent probability via KL divergence between trajectory transitions and reference models
compares empirical trajectory transition distribution to human/agent prototypes
args:
trajectory: list of state/event strings from session
human_transitions: reference transition dict from human MDP (event->event->prob)
agent_transitions: reference transition dict from agent MDP (event->event->prob)
returns:
agent probability in [0, 1] via softmax over KL divergences
"""
if len(trajectory) < 2:
return 0.0 # insufficient data, assume human
# build empirical transition distribution from trajectory
trans_counts = {}
for s, s_next in zip(trajectory[:-1], trajectory[1:]):
if s not in trans_counts:
trans_counts[s] = {}
trans_counts[s][s_next] = trans_counts[s].get(s_next, 0) + 1
# normalize to probabilities
empirical = {}
for s, nxt in trans_counts.items():
total = sum(nxt.values())
empirical[s] = {s_n: cnt / total for s_n, cnt in nxt.items()}
# compute KL divergence to each prototype
def kl_div(p_dist: Dict, q_dist: Dict) -> float:
eps = 1e-10
# aggregate over all source states in empirical dist
kl = 0.0
for s in p_dist:
if s not in q_dist:
continue # skip states not in reference
p_trans, q_trans = p_dist[s], q_dist[s]
for k in p_trans:
p_val = p_trans[k] + eps
q_val = q_trans.get(k, 0.0) + eps
kl += p_val * np.log(p_val / q_val)
return kl
kl_human = kl_div(empirical, human_transitions)
kl_agent = kl_div(empirical, agent_transitions)
# convert to probability via softmax (lower KL = higher prob)
# agent_prob = exp(-kl_agent) / (exp(-kl_human) + exp(-kl_agent))
exp_h = np.exp(-kl_human)
exp_a = np.exp(-kl_agent)
return float(exp_a / (exp_h + exp_a + 1e-10))
def extract_purchases(trajectories: list) -> Dict[int, int]:
purchases: Dict[int, int] = {}
for traj in trajectories:
if traj and "checkout" in traj[-1] and "_product" in traj[-1]:
prod_id = int(traj[-1].rsplit("_product", 1)[1])
purchases[prod_id] = purchases.get(prod_id, 0) + 1
return purchases
def compute_uplift_coi(
prices: np.ndarray, purchases: Dict[int, int], baseline_prices: np.ndarray
) -> float:
# TODO: consider view-weighted fractional purchase for denser signal
return float(
sum(max(0.0, prices[k] - baseline_prices[k]) * n for k, n in purchases.items())
)

View File

@@ -1,45 +1,92 @@
import logging
import numpy as np
from logging import getLogger
logger = getLogger(__name__)
def generate_demand(prices, distribution_method = np.random.normal, distribution_params = (50.0, 10.0)):
# assumption 1: each product has an intrinsic valuation drawn from a normal distribution centered at 50
product_valuations = distribution_method(*distribution_params, size=len(prices))
# assumption 2: demand decreases as price increases, following a simple linear model
demand = np.maximum(0, product_valuations - prices) # demand cannot be negative
CATEGORY_WEIGHTS = {"cart": 4.0, "dwell": 2.0, "nav": 1.0, "filter": 0.5}
ACTION_CATEGORIES = {
"cart": {"add_item", "add_to_cart", "remove", "checkout", "purchase"},
"dwell": {"hover_title", "hover_paragraph", "hover_link"},
"nav": {"page_view", "view_item", "view", "learn_more"},
"filter": {"search", "filter_date", "filter_price", "sort"},
}
DEFAULT_ACTION_WEIGHTS = {
a: CATEGORY_WEIGHTS[c] for c, actions in ACTION_CATEGORIES.items() for a in actions
}
def generate_demand_for_actor(
prices: np.ndarray,
params: tuple,
noise_std: float = 1.0,
distribution_method=np.random.normal,
) -> np.ndarray:
"""d(p;0) = max(0, valuation - price) + epsi for single actor type
params: (mean, std) for valuation distribution D_H or D_A"""
val = distribution_method(*params, size=len(prices))
noise = distribution_method(0, noise_std, len(prices))
demand = np.maximum(0, val - prices + noise)
total = np.sum(demand)
demand = demand / total * 100 if total > 0 else demand # normalize to percentage, avoid div by zero
logger.info(f"Generated demand for prices {prices}: {demand} with valuations from distribution {distribution_params}")
return demand
return demand / total * 100 if total > 0 else demand
def estimate_demand(trajectories):
demand_estimate = {}
def estimate_demand(trajectories, action_weights=None):
return estimate_weighted_demand(trajectories, action_weights)
def _parse_event_state(state: str):
if "_product" not in state:
return state, None
action, raw_pid = state.rsplit("_product", 1)
return action, int(raw_pid) if raw_pid.isdigit() else None
def _weight_for_action(action: str, action_weights: dict) -> float:
if action in action_weights:
return action_weights[action]
if action.startswith("hover"):
return CATEGORY_WEIGHTS["dwell"]
if action.startswith("filter") or action in {"search", "sort"}:
return CATEGORY_WEIGHTS["filter"]
if action.startswith("add") or action in {"checkout", "purchase", "remove"}:
return CATEGORY_WEIGHTS["cart"]
return CATEGORY_WEIGHTS["nav"]
def estimate_weighted_demand(trajectories, action_weights=None):
action_weights = (
DEFAULT_ACTION_WEIGHTS if action_weights is None else action_weights
)
scores = {}
for traj in trajectories:
for event in traj:
if 'view_product' in event:
product_id = int(event.split('_')[-1].replace('product', ''))
demand_estimate[product_id] = demand_estimate.get(product_id, 0) + 1
total_views = sum(demand_estimate.values())
for product_id in demand_estimate:
demand_estimate[product_id] = (demand_estimate[product_id] / total_views) * 100 # normalize to percentage
return demand_estimate
for state in traj:
action, product_id = _parse_event_state(state)
if product_id is None:
continue
w = _weight_for_action(action, action_weights)
if w <= 0:
continue
scores[product_id] = scores.get(product_id, 0.0) + w
total = sum(scores.values())
return (
{pid: (score / total) * 100 for pid, score in scores.items()}
if total > 0
else {}
)
# Example usage
if __name__ == "__main__":
np.random.seed(42)
prices = np.array([20.0, 35.0, 50.0, 65.0])
demand = generate_demand(prices)
print("Generated Demand:", demand)
# demo actor-specific demands
human_params, agent_params = (50, 10), (45, 15)
demand_h = generate_demand_for_actor(prices, human_params)
demand_a = generate_demand_for_actor(prices, agent_params)
print("Human Demand:", demand_h)
print("Agent Demand:", demand_a)
from .behavior import sample_behavior
N, alphat =200, 0.1
trajectories = []
for _ in range(int(N*(1 - alphat))):
trajectories.append(sample_behavior(demand, human=True))
for _ in range(int(N*alphat)):
trajectories.append(sample_behavior(demand, human=False))
demand_estimate = estimate_demand(trajectories)
N, alpha = 200, 0.3
n_h, n_a = int(N * (1 - alpha)), int(N * alpha)
human_t = [sample_behavior(demand_h, human=True) for _ in range(n_h)]
agent_t = [sample_behavior(demand_a, human=False) for _ in range(n_a)]
demand_estimate = estimate_demand(human_t + agent_t)
print("Estimated Demand from Behavior:", demand_estimate)
delta = {k: demand_estimate.get(k, 0) - demand[i] for i, k in enumerate(range(len(prices)))}
delta = np.mean([np.abs(v) for v in delta.values()])
print("Demand Delta:", delta)

70
engine/lib/discrete.py Normal file
View File

@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
from collections import defaultdict
import gymnasium as gym
from gymnasium import spaces
import numpy as np
class DiscretePriceActionWrapper(gym.ActionWrapper):
def __init__(
self,
env: gym.Env,
n_levels: int = 9,
min_scale: float = 0.8,
max_scale: float = 1.2,
):
super().__init__(env)
self.scales = np.linspace(min_scale, max_scale, n_levels, dtype=np.float32)
self.action_space = spaces.Discrete(n_levels)
def action(self, action: int):
scale = float(self.scales[int(action)])
cur = np.asarray(self.env.unwrapped._prices, dtype=np.float32)
lo, hi = self.env.unwrapped.price_bounds
return np.clip(cur * scale, lo, hi).astype(np.float32)
class EventQTable:
def __init__(
self,
n_actions: int,
n_products: int,
price_bounds: tuple,
lr: float = 0.1,
gamma: float = 0.99,
n_bins: int = 6,
):
self.n_actions = int(n_actions)
self.n_products = int(n_products)
self.lr = float(lr)
self.gamma = float(gamma)
self.q = defaultdict(lambda: np.zeros(self.n_actions, dtype=np.float32))
lo, hi = price_bounds
self.demand_bins = np.linspace(0.0, 100.0, n_bins + 1)[1:-1]
self.price_bins = np.linspace(lo, hi, n_bins + 1)[1:-1]
def encode(self, obs: np.ndarray) -> tuple:
obs = np.asarray(obs, dtype=np.float32)
d = obs[: self.n_products]
p = obs[self.n_products : 2 * self.n_products]
d_mean = float(np.mean(d)) if d.size else 0.0
d_std = float(np.std(d)) if d.size else 0.0
p_mean = float(np.mean(p)) if p.size else 0.0
return (
int(np.digitize(d_mean, self.demand_bins)),
int(np.digitize(d_std, self.demand_bins)),
int(np.digitize(p_mean, self.price_bins)),
)
def act(self, obs: np.ndarray, eps: float = 0.0) -> tuple[int, tuple]:
s = self.encode(obs)
if np.random.random() < eps:
return int(np.random.randint(self.n_actions)), s
return int(np.argmax(self.q[s])), s
def update(self, s: tuple, a: int, r: float, s2: tuple, done: bool):
target = r + (0.0 if done else self.gamma * float(np.max(self.q[s2])))
self.q[s][a] += self.lr * (target - self.q[s][a])
def predict(self, obs: np.ndarray, deterministic: bool = True):
a, _ = self.act(obs, 0.0 if deterministic else 0.05)
return a, None

182
engine/lib/providers.py Normal file
View File

@@ -0,0 +1,182 @@
"""Provider benchmarking - compare pricing strategies across contamination levels."""
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from typing import Callable, Any
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
try:
import wandb
HAS_WANDB = True
except ImportError:
HAS_WANDB = False
class RandomBaseline:
"""uniform random action selection as a lower-bound baseline"""
def __init__(self, n_actions: int):
self.n = n_actions
def __call__(self, obs):
return int(np.random.randint(self.n))
def predict(self, obs, **kw):
return self(obs), None
class SurgeBaseline:
"""heuristic surge pricing: boost price when demand is above threshold, discount when below.
matches the naive pricing rule from thesis Section 3.3.2"""
def __init__(
self, n_actions: int, high_threshold: float = 60.0, low_threshold: float = 30.0
):
self.n = n_actions
self.mid = n_actions // 2 # identity action (scale ~1.0)
self.high_t = high_threshold
self.low_t = low_threshold
def __call__(self, obs):
obs = np.asarray(obs, dtype=np.float32)
n_prod = len(obs) // 2
demand_mean = float(np.mean(obs[:n_prod])) if n_prod > 0 else 0.0
if demand_mean >= self.high_t:
return min(self.mid + 2, self.n - 1) # surge: two levels above identity
if demand_mean <= self.low_t:
return max(self.mid - 2, 0) # discount: two levels below identity
return self.mid # hold
def predict(self, obs, **kw):
return self(obs), None
@dataclass
class ProviderResult:
"""Single benchmark result for one provider at one alpha level."""
name: str
alpha: float
total_revenue: float
mean_revenue: float
coi_level: float
coi_preserved_pct: float # vs alpha=0 baseline
margin_integrity: float
regret: float
episodes: int
@dataclass
class BenchmarkConfig:
"""Configuration for provider benchmark runs."""
n_episodes: int = 100
alpha_range: list[float] = field(default_factory=lambda: [0.0, 0.1, 0.3, 0.5])
baseline_name: str = "fixed"
class ProviderBenchmark:
"""Compare pricing providers to prove margin preservation across contamination levels.
Usage:
def env_factory(alpha):
return EconomicMetricsWrapper(PHANTOM(alpha=alpha))
providers = {
"fixed": lambda obs: np.ones(10) * 50,
"learned": model.predict,
}
benchmark = ProviderBenchmark(env_factory, providers)
results = benchmark.run()
print(benchmark.summary_table())
"""
def __init__(
self,
env_factory: Callable[[float], Any],
providers: dict[str, Callable],
config: BenchmarkConfig | None = None,
):
self.env_factory = env_factory # fn(alpha) -> wrapped env
self.providers = providers # {name: fn(obs) -> action}
self.config = config or BenchmarkConfig()
self.results: list[ProviderResult] = []
def run(self) -> list[ProviderResult]:
"""Run benchmark across all providers and alpha levels."""
baseline_coi: dict[str, float] = {} # {provider: coi at alpha=0}
for alpha in self.config.alpha_range:
env = self.env_factory(alpha)
for name, policy_fn in self.providers.items():
revenues, coi_levels, margins = [], [], []
for _ in range(self.config.n_episodes):
obs, _ = env.reset()
episode_revenue = 0.0
done = False
while not done:
action = policy_fn(obs)
# handle sb3 model.predict returning tuple
if isinstance(action, tuple):
action = action[0]
obs, reward, term, trunc, info = env.step(action)
done = term or trunc
econ = info.get("economics", {})
episode_revenue += econ.get("revenue", 0)
coi_levels.append(econ.get("coi_level", 0))
margins.append(econ.get("margin", 0))
revenues.append(episode_revenue)
mean_coi = np.mean(coi_levels) if coi_levels else 0.0
if alpha == 0.0:
baseline_coi[name] = mean_coi
base = baseline_coi.get(name, mean_coi)
coi_preserved = mean_coi / base if base > 0 else 1.0
result = ProviderResult(
name=name,
alpha=alpha,
total_revenue=float(np.sum(revenues)),
mean_revenue=float(np.mean(revenues)),
coi_level=mean_coi,
coi_preserved_pct=coi_preserved * 100,
margin_integrity=float(np.mean(margins)) if margins else 0.0,
regret=0.0, # compute vs optimal if known
episodes=self.config.n_episodes,
)
self.results.append(result)
# log to wandb if available
if HAS_WANDB and wandb.run is not None:
wandb.log(
{
f"benchmark/{name}/revenue": result.mean_revenue,
f"benchmark/{name}/coi_preserved": result.coi_preserved_pct,
f"benchmark/{name}/margin": result.margin_integrity,
"benchmark/alpha": alpha,
}
)
return self.results
def to_dataframe(self) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Convert results to pandas DataFrame."""
return pd.DataFrame([r.__dict__ for r in self.results])
def summary_table(self) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Pivot table: providers x alpha with revenue/COI metrics."""
df = self.to_dataframe()
return df.pivot_table(
index="name",
columns="alpha",
values=["mean_revenue", "coi_preserved_pct", "margin_integrity"],
aggfunc="mean",
)

77
engine/lib/wrappers.py Normal file
View File

@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
"""Economic metrics wrapper - calculates thesis-aligned KPIs and injects into info dict."""
import gymnasium as gym
import numpy as np
class EconomicMetricsWrapper(gym.Wrapper):
"""Calculates thesis-aligned economic metrics per step, injects into info.
Metrics follow thesis definitions:
- COI level: E[P] - p_min (Definition 1)
- Margin: (avg_price - p_min) / avg_price
- Regret: 1 - (revenue / baseline_revenue)
"""
def __init__(
self, env: gym.Env, p_min: float = 10.0, baseline_revenue: float | None = None
):
super().__init__(env)
self.p_min = p_min
self.baseline_revenue = baseline_revenue
self._price_history: list[np.ndarray] = []
self._revenue_history: list[float] = []
def reset(self, **kwargs):
obs, info = self.env.reset(**kwargs)
self._price_history = []
self._revenue_history = []
return obs, info
def step(self, action):
obs, reward, terminated, truncated, info = self.env.step(action)
# extract from unwrapped env
prices = self.env.unwrapped._prices
demand_dict = self.env.unwrapped._demand
demand = np.array([demand_dict.get(i, 0.0) for i in range(len(prices))])
alpha = self.env.unwrapped.alpha
# core calculations
revenue = float(np.sum(prices * demand))
avg_price = float(np.mean(prices))
margin = (avg_price - self.p_min) / max(avg_price, 1e-6)
coi_level = avg_price - self.p_min # E[P] - p_min per thesis Def 1
self._price_history.append(prices.copy())
self._revenue_history.append(revenue)
# regret vs baseline (golden path)
regret = 0.0
if self.baseline_revenue and self.baseline_revenue > 0:
regret = 1.0 - (revenue / self.baseline_revenue)
# inject structured metrics into info
info["economics"] = {
"revenue": revenue,
"margin": margin,
"coi_level": coi_level,
"regret": regret,
}
for key in ("coi_mix", "coi_base", "coi_leakage", "coi_penalty"):
if key in info:
info["economics"][key] = info[key]
info["prices"] = prices.copy()
info["demand"] = demand.copy()
return obs, reward, terminated, truncated, info
@property
def episode_revenue(self) -> float:
return sum(self._revenue_history)
@property
def episode_mean_price(self) -> float:
if not self._price_history:
return 0.0
return float(np.mean([np.mean(p) for p in self._price_history]))

View File

@@ -56,7 +56,7 @@ def run_single(cfg: dict) -> dict:
"id": cfg["id"],
"config": cfg,
"total_reward": total_reward,
"avg_reward": total_reward / steps,
"avg_reward": total_reward / steps if steps > 0 else 0.0,
"steps": steps,
}

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,84 @@
method: random
metric:
name: sweep/score
goal: maximize
command:
- ${env}
- python
- -m
- engine.train
parameters:
algo:
values: [ppo, a2c, dqn, qtable]
total_timesteps:
values: [30000, 50000, 80000]
seed:
values: [13, 42, 77]
n_products:
values: [8, 10, 12]
alpha:
distribution: uniform
min: 0.1
max: 0.6
lambda_coi:
distribution: uniform
min: 0.05
max: 0.6
robust_radius:
distribution: uniform
min: 0.0
max: 0.3
robust_points:
values: [3, 5, 7]
info_value:
distribution: uniform
min: 0.5
max: 2.0
revenue_weight:
values: [0.005, 0.01, 0.02]
learning_rate:
distribution: log_uniform_values
min: 1.0e-5
max: 1.0e-3
gamma:
values: [0.97, 0.99, 0.995]
buffer_size:
values: [20000, 50000, 100000]
batch_size:
values: [128, 256, 512]
tau:
values: [0.002, 0.005, 0.01]
train_freq:
values: [1, 4, 8]
learning_starts:
values: [500, 1000, 3000]
n_steps:
values: [512, 1024, 2048]
n_epochs:
values: [5, 10, 20]
gae_lambda:
values: [0.9, 0.95, 0.98]
clip_range:
values: [0.1, 0.2, 0.3]
ent_coef:
values: [0.0, 0.005, 0.01]
target_update_interval:
values: [500, 1000, 2000]
exploration_fraction:
values: [0.1, 0.2, 0.3]
exploration_final_eps:
values: [0.01, 0.03, 0.05]
action_levels:
values: [7, 9, 11]
action_scale_low:
values: [0.75, 0.8, 0.85]
action_scale_high:
values: [1.15, 1.2, 1.25]
q_lr:
values: [0.03, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2]
eps_start:
value: 1.0
eps_end:
values: [0.02, 0.05, 0.1]
eps_decay:
values: [0.999, 0.9995, 0.9999]

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,85 @@
method: grid
metric:
name: sweep/score
goal: maximize
run_cap: 4
command:
- ${env}
- python
- -m
- engine.train
parameters:
algo:
values: [ppo, a2c, dqn, qtable]
seed:
value: 42
total_timesteps:
value: 12000
eval_episodes:
value: 3
eval_freq:
value: 500
log_freq:
value: 100
revenue_weight:
value: 0.01
n_products:
value: 8
N:
value: 80
alpha:
value: 0.3
lambda_coi:
value: 0.2
robust_radius:
value: 0.0
robust_points:
value: 1
info_value:
value: 1.0
learning_rate:
value: 0.0003
gamma:
value: 0.99
buffer_size:
value: 20000
batch_size:
value: 128
tau:
value: 0.005
train_freq:
value: 1
learning_starts:
value: 500
n_steps:
value: 512
n_epochs:
value: 10
gae_lambda:
value: 0.95
clip_range:
value: 0.2
ent_coef:
value: 0.0
target_update_interval:
value: 500
exploration_fraction:
value: 0.2
exploration_final_eps:
value: 0.05
action_levels:
value: 7
action_scale_low:
value: 0.9
action_scale_high:
value: 1.1
q_lr:
value: 0.1
q_bins:
value: 6
eps_start:
value: 1.0
eps_end:
value: 0.05
eps_decay:
value: 0.9995

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,54 @@
method: bayes
metric:
name: sweep/score
goal: maximize
command:
- ${env}
- python
- -m
- engine.train
parameters:
algo:
value: sac
total_timesteps:
values: [50000, 80000, 120000]
seed:
values: [13, 42, 77]
alpha:
distribution: uniform
min: 0.15
max: 0.55
n_products:
values: [8, 10, 12]
lambda_coi:
distribution: uniform
min: 0.05
max: 0.5
robust_radius:
distribution: uniform
min: 0.05
max: 0.3
robust_points:
values: [3, 5, 7]
info_value:
distribution: uniform
min: 0.5
max: 2.0
revenue_weight:
values: [0.005, 0.01, 0.02]
learning_rate:
distribution: log_uniform_values
min: 3.0e-5
max: 1.0e-3
gamma:
values: [0.98, 0.99, 0.995]
buffer_size:
values: [50000, 100000, 200000]
batch_size:
values: [128, 256, 512]
tau:
values: [0.002, 0.005, 0.01]
train_freq:
values: [1, 4, 8]
learning_starts:
values: [1000, 3000, 5000]

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
method: random
metric:
name: sweep/score
goal: maximize
command:
- ${env}
- python
- -m
- engine.train
parameters:
algo:
values: [ppo, a2c, dqn, qtable]
arch:
values: [tiny, small, medium]
activation:
values: [relu, tanh]
total_timesteps:
values: [8000, 12000, 20000]
seed:
values: [13, 42, 77]
n_products:
values: [6, 8, 10]
alpha:
distribution: uniform
min: 0.1
max: 0.5
lambda_coi:
distribution: uniform
min: 0.05
max: 0.4
robust_radius:
values: [0.0, 0.1, 0.2]
robust_points:
values: [3, 5]
info_value:
values: [0.75, 1.0, 1.5]
revenue_weight:
values: [0.005, 0.01, 0.02]
learning_rate:
distribution: log_uniform_values
min: 1.0e-5
max: 5.0e-4
gamma:
values: [0.98, 0.99]
buffer_size:
values: [10000, 30000, 50000]
batch_size:
values: [64, 128, 256]
tau:
values: [0.002, 0.005, 0.01]
train_freq:
values: [1, 4]
learning_starts:
values: [500, 1000, 2000]
n_steps:
values: [256, 512, 1024]
n_epochs:
values: [5, 10]
gae_lambda:
values: [0.9, 0.95]
clip_range:
values: [0.1, 0.2]
ent_coef:
values: [0.0, 0.005]
target_update_interval:
values: [500, 1000]
exploration_fraction:
values: [0.1, 0.2]
exploration_final_eps:
values: [0.02, 0.05]
action_levels:
values: [5, 7, 9]
action_scale_low:
values: [0.85, 0.9]
action_scale_high:
values: [1.1, 1.15]
q_lr:
values: [0.05, 0.1, 0.2]
q_bins:
values: [4, 6, 8]
eps_start:
value: 1.0
eps_end:
values: [0.02, 0.05]
eps_decay:
values: [0.999, 0.9995]

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
method: bayes
metric:
name: sweep/score
goal: maximize
command:
- ${env}
- python
- -m
- engine.train
parameters:
# fixed: always use JAX backend so TPU chips are actually exercised
use_jax:
value: true
# all four algos have JAX implementations
algo:
values: [ppo, a2c, dqn, qtable]
total_timesteps:
values: [50000, 80000, 120000]
checkpoint_interval:
value: 200000
seed:
values: [13, 42, 77]
n_products:
values: [8, 10, 12]
# COI framework parameters -- primary research variables
alpha:
distribution: uniform
min: 0.1
max: 0.6
lambda_coi:
distribution: uniform
min: 0.05
max: 0.6
robust_radius:
distribution: uniform
min: 0.0
max: 0.3
robust_points:
values: [3, 5, 7]
info_value:
distribution: uniform
min: 0.5
max: 2.0
revenue_weight:
values: [0.005, 0.01, 0.02]
# shared hyperparameters
learning_rate:
distribution: log_uniform_values
min: 1.0e-5
max: 1.0e-3
gamma:
values: [0.97, 0.99, 0.995]
# JAX parallelism -- key lever for TPU throughput
jax_num_envs:
values: [8, 16, 32]
jax_num_steps:
values: [64, 128, 256]
jax_num_minibatches:
values: [2, 4, 8]
jax_update_epochs:
values: [2, 4, 8]
# PPO/A2C specific
gae_lambda:
values: [0.9, 0.95, 0.98]
clip_range:
values: [0.1, 0.2, 0.3]
ent_coef:
values: [0.0, 0.005, 0.01]
# DQN specific
buffer_size:
values: [20000, 50000, 100000]
batch_size:
values: [128, 256, 512]
learning_starts:
values: [500, 1000, 3000]
exploration_fraction:
values: [0.1, 0.2, 0.3]
exploration_final_eps:
values: [0.01, 0.03, 0.05]
# QTable specific
q_lr:
values: [0.03, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2]
eps_end:
values: [0.02, 0.05, 0.1]
eps_decay:
values: [0.999, 0.9995, 0.9999]
# action space
action_levels:
values: [7, 9, 11]
action_scale_low:
values: [0.75, 0.8, 0.85]
action_scale_high:
values: [1.15, 1.2, 1.25]

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
method: bayes
metric:
name: sweep/score
goal: maximize
command:
- ${env}
- python
- -m
- engine.train
parameters:
use_jax:
value: true
# pmap requires all workers to compile the same computation graph shape,
# so structural params are fixed -- only research/scalar params are swept
algo:
values: [ppo, a2c]
jax_num_envs:
value: 32
jax_num_steps:
value: 128
jax_num_minibatches:
value: 4
jax_update_epochs:
value: 4
total_timesteps:
value: 100000
checkpoint_interval:
value: 200000
n_products:
value: 10
action_levels:
value: 9
# research parameters -- primary sweep targets
alpha:
distribution: uniform
min: 0.1
max: 0.6
lambda_coi:
distribution: uniform
min: 0.05
max: 0.6
robust_radius:
distribution: uniform
min: 0.0
max: 0.3
info_value:
distribution: uniform
min: 0.5
max: 2.0
revenue_weight:
values: [0.005, 0.01, 0.02]
# training hyperparameters
learning_rate:
distribution: log_uniform_values
min: 1.0e-5
max: 1.0e-3
gamma:
values: [0.97, 0.99, 0.995]
gae_lambda:
values: [0.9, 0.95, 0.98]
clip_range:
values: [0.1, 0.2, 0.3]
ent_coef:
values: [0.0, 0.005, 0.01]

View File

@@ -1,45 +1,568 @@
from stable_baselines3 import SAC
from stable_baselines3.common.callbacks import EvalCallback, BaseCallback
from .wrapper import PHANTOM
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
import json
import os
from pathlib import Path
import numpy as np
from .wandb_checkpoint import checkpoint_artifact_name, download_latest_checkpoint
try:
import wandb as _wandb
if hasattr(_wandb, "init") and callable(_wandb.init):
wandb = _wandb
HAS_WANDB = True
else:
wandb = None
HAS_WANDB = False
except ImportError:
wandb = None
HAS_WANDB = False
try:
from stable_baselines3 import PPO, A2C, DQN
from stable_baselines3.common.callbacks import EvalCallback
from stable_baselines3.common.monitor import Monitor
HAS_SB3 = True
except ImportError:
HAS_SB3 = False
from .jax import JAX_AVAILABLE
class RenderCallback(BaseCallback):
"""Renders environment on every step for live visualization."""
def __init__(self, env: PHANTOM):
super().__init__()
self.env = env
def _on_step(self) -> bool:
self.env.render()
return True
DEFAULT_CFG = {
"project": "phantom-pricing",
"algo": "ppo",
"seed": 42,
"total_timesteps": 50_000,
"eval_episodes": 5,
"eval_freq": 1_000,
"log_freq": 100,
"revenue_weight": 0.01,
"n_products": 10,
"N": 100,
"alpha": 0.3,
"lambda_coi": 0.2,
"robust_radius": 0.15,
"robust_points": 5,
"info_value": 1.0,
"price_low": 10.0,
"price_high": 150.0,
"action_levels": 9,
"action_scale_low": 0.8,
"action_scale_high": 1.2,
"learning_rate": 3e-4,
"gamma": 0.99,
"buffer_size": 50_000,
"batch_size": 256,
"tau": 0.005,
"train_freq": 1,
"learning_starts": 1_000,
"target_update_interval": 1_000,
"exploration_fraction": 0.2,
"exploration_final_eps": 0.05,
"n_steps": 2_048,
"n_epochs": 10,
"gae_lambda": 0.95,
"clip_range": 0.2,
"ent_coef": 0.0,
"q_lr": 0.1,
"eps_start": 1.0,
"eps_end": 0.05,
"eps_decay": 0.9995,
"model_dir": "engine/models",
"arch": "small",
"activation": "relu",
"q_bins": 6,
"max_steps": 100,
"margin_floor": 0.05,
"margin_floor_patience": 5,
"use_jax": False,
"jax_num_envs": 16,
"jax_num_steps": 128,
"jax_num_minibatches": 4,
"jax_update_epochs": 4,
"jax_anneal_lr": True,
"checkpoint_interval": 200_000,
}
env = PHANTOM(n_products=10, alpha=0.3, render_mode="human")
eval_env = PHANTOM(n_products=10, alpha=0.3, render_mode=None)
def _truthy(value: str | bool | None) -> bool:
if isinstance(value, bool): return value
if value is None: return False
return str(value).strip().lower() in {"1", "true", "yes", "on"}
model = SAC(
"MultiInputPolicy",
env,
verbose=1,
learning_rate=3e-4,
buffer_size=50000,
batch_size=256,
tau=0.005,
gamma=0.99,
)
render_cb = RenderCallback(env)
eval_cb = EvalCallback(eval_env, eval_freq=1000, n_eval_episodes=5, verbose=1)
def _cfg(raw: dict | None = None) -> dict:
cfg = dict(DEFAULT_CFG)
if raw:
cfg.update({k: v for k, v in raw.items() if v is not None})
cfg["algo"] = str(cfg["algo"]).lower()
cfg["use_jax"] = _truthy(cfg.get("use_jax")) or _truthy(
os.environ.get("PHANTOM_USE_JAX")
)
return cfg
model.learn(total_timesteps=50000, callback=[render_cb, eval_cb])
model.save("phantom_sac")
# test trained policy
env = PHANTOM(n_products=10, alpha=0.3, render_mode="human")
obs, _ = env.reset()
for _ in range(100):
action, _ = model.predict(obs, deterministic=True)
obs, reward, term, trunc, _ = env.step(action)
env.render()
if term or trunc: break
env.close()
def _wandb_cfg_dict() -> dict:
return (
{k: wandb.config[k] for k in wandb.config.keys()}
if HAS_WANDB and wandb.run
else {}
)
def make_env(cfg: dict):
from gymnasium.wrappers import FlattenObservation
from .wrapper import PHANTOM
from .lib.wrappers import EconomicMetricsWrapper
env = PHANTOM(
n_products=int(cfg["n_products"]),
alpha=float(cfg["alpha"]),
N=int(cfg["N"]),
price_bounds=(float(cfg["price_low"]), float(cfg["price_high"])),
lambda_coi=float(cfg["lambda_coi"]),
robust_radius=float(cfg["robust_radius"]),
robust_points=int(cfg["robust_points"]),
info_value=float(cfg["info_value"]),
action_levels=int(cfg["action_levels"]),
action_scale_low=float(cfg["action_scale_low"]),
action_scale_high=float(cfg["action_scale_high"]),
max_steps=int(cfg.get("max_steps", 100)),
margin_floor=float(cfg.get("margin_floor", 0.05)),
margin_floor_patience=int(cfg.get("margin_floor_patience", 5)),
render_mode=None,
)
env = EconomicMetricsWrapper(env)
env = FlattenObservation(env)
return env
def _net_arch(name) -> list[int]:
presets = {
"tiny": [32, 32],
"small": [64, 64],
"medium": [128, 128],
"large": [256, 256],
}
if isinstance(name, (list, tuple)):
return [int(v) for v in name]
s = str(name).lower().strip()
if s in presets:
return presets[s]
if "x" in s:
try:
vals = [int(v) for v in s.split("x") if v]
return vals if vals else presets["small"]
except ValueError:
return presets["small"]
return presets["small"]
def _activation(name):
try:
import torch.nn as nn
except ImportError:
return None
return {
"relu": nn.ReLU,
"tanh": nn.Tanh,
"elu": nn.ELU,
"leaky_relu": nn.LeakyReLU,
}.get(str(name).lower().strip(), nn.ReLU)
def _policy_kwargs(cfg: dict) -> dict:
kw = {"net_arch": _net_arch(cfg.get("arch", "small"))}
act = _activation(cfg.get("activation", "relu"))
if act is not None:
kw["activation_fn"] = act
return kw
def _action(agent, obs, deterministic: bool = True):
out = agent.predict(obs, deterministic=deterministic)
a = out[0] if isinstance(out, tuple) else out
if isinstance(a, np.ndarray) and a.size == 1:
return int(a.reshape(-1)[0])
return a
def evaluate(agent, env, episodes: int) -> dict:
rewards, revenues = [], []
for _ in range(int(episodes)):
obs, _ = env.reset()
done, ep_r, ep_rev = False, 0.0, 0.0
while not done:
obs, reward, term, trunc, info = env.step(_action(agent, obs, True))
done = term or trunc
ep_r += float(reward)
ep_rev += float(
info.get("economics", {}).get("revenue", info.get("revenue", 0.0))
)
rewards.append(ep_r)
revenues.append(ep_rev)
return {
"eval/reward": float(np.mean(rewards)),
"eval/revenue": float(np.mean(revenues)),
"eval/reward_std": float(np.std(rewards)),
"eval/revenue_std": float(np.std(revenues)),
}
def build_model(cfg: dict, env):
algo = cfg["algo"]
policy_kwargs = _policy_kwargs(cfg)
if algo == "sac":
raise ValueError("sac is not supported with the discrete core env")
if algo == "ppo":
return PPO(
"MlpPolicy",
env,
verbose=1,
policy_kwargs=policy_kwargs,
seed=int(cfg["seed"]),
learning_rate=float(cfg["learning_rate"]),
n_steps=int(cfg["n_steps"]),
batch_size=int(cfg["batch_size"]),
n_epochs=int(cfg["n_epochs"]),
gamma=float(cfg["gamma"]),
gae_lambda=float(cfg["gae_lambda"]),
clip_range=float(cfg["clip_range"]),
ent_coef=float(cfg["ent_coef"]),
)
if algo == "a2c":
return A2C(
"MlpPolicy",
env,
verbose=1,
policy_kwargs=policy_kwargs,
seed=int(cfg["seed"]),
learning_rate=float(cfg["learning_rate"]),
n_steps=max(5, int(cfg["n_steps"]) // 32),
gamma=float(cfg["gamma"]),
gae_lambda=float(cfg["gae_lambda"]),
ent_coef=float(cfg["ent_coef"]),
)
if algo == "dqn":
return DQN(
"MlpPolicy",
env,
verbose=1,
policy_kwargs=policy_kwargs,
seed=int(cfg["seed"]),
learning_rate=float(cfg["learning_rate"]),
buffer_size=int(cfg["buffer_size"]),
batch_size=int(cfg["batch_size"]),
gamma=float(cfg["gamma"]),
train_freq=int(cfg["train_freq"]),
learning_starts=int(cfg["learning_starts"]),
target_update_interval=int(cfg["target_update_interval"]),
exploration_fraction=float(cfg["exploration_fraction"]),
exploration_final_eps=float(cfg["exploration_final_eps"]),
)
raise ValueError(f"unsupported algo '{algo}'")
def _sb3_model_cls(algo: str):
if algo == "ppo":
return PPO
if algo == "a2c":
return A2C
if algo == "dqn":
return DQN
raise ValueError(f"unsupported algo '{algo}'")
def train_qtable(cfg: dict) -> tuple[EventQTable, dict]:
from .lib.discrete import EventQTable
np.random.seed(int(cfg["seed"]))
env = make_env(cfg)
eval_env = make_env(cfg)
agent = EventQTable(
env.action_space.n,
int(cfg["n_products"]),
(float(cfg["price_low"]), float(cfg["price_high"])),
lr=float(cfg["q_lr"]),
gamma=float(cfg["gamma"]),
n_bins=int(cfg["q_bins"]),
)
eps = float(cfg["eps_start"])
obs, _ = env.reset(seed=int(cfg["seed"]))
for t in range(int(cfg["total_timesteps"])):
a, s = agent.act(obs, eps)
nxt, reward, term, trunc, info = env.step(a)
done = term or trunc
agent.update(s, a, float(reward), agent.encode(nxt), done)
eps = max(float(cfg["eps_end"]), eps * float(cfg["eps_decay"]))
if HAS_WANDB and wandb.run and (t + 1) % int(cfg["log_freq"]) == 0:
econ = info.get("economics", {})
wandb.log(
{
"train/reward": float(reward),
"train/revenue": float(econ.get("revenue", 0.0)),
"train/epsilon": float(eps),
},
step=t + 1,
)
obs = env.reset()[0] if done else nxt
metrics = evaluate(agent, eval_env, int(cfg["eval_episodes"]))
metrics["train/global_step"] = int(cfg["total_timesteps"])
env.close()
eval_env.close()
return agent, metrics
def train_sb3(cfg: dict) -> tuple[object, dict]:
if not HAS_SB3:
raise ImportError("stable-baselines3 is required for SB3 models")
from .lib.callbacks import CheckpointArtifactCallback, MetricsCallback
env = make_env(cfg)
eval_env = make_env(cfg)
env = Monitor(env)
eval_env = Monitor(eval_env)
model = build_model(cfg, env)
resume_step = 0
if HAS_WANDB and wandb.run is not None:
sweep_id = getattr(wandb.run, "sweep_id", None)
artifact_name = checkpoint_artifact_name(cfg, backend="sb3", sweep_id=sweep_id)
checkpoint_file = f"phantom_{cfg['algo']}_checkpoint.zip"
restored = download_latest_checkpoint(artifact_name, file_name=checkpoint_file)
if restored is not None:
checkpoint_path, metadata = restored
model = _sb3_model_cls(cfg["algo"]).load(
checkpoint_path.as_posix(), env=env
)
resume_step = int(metadata.get("step", getattr(model, "num_timesteps", 0)))
model.num_timesteps = max(
int(getattr(model, "num_timesteps", 0)), resume_step
)
cbs = [MetricsCallback(log_histograms=True, log_freq=int(cfg["log_freq"]))]
cbs.append(
CheckpointArtifactCallback(
cfg,
interval=int(cfg.get("checkpoint_interval", 10_000)),
)
)
cbs.append(
EvalCallback(
eval_env,
eval_freq=int(cfg["eval_freq"]),
n_eval_episodes=int(cfg["eval_episodes"]),
deterministic=True,
verbose=0,
)
)
target_steps = int(cfg["total_timesteps"])
remaining_steps = max(0, target_steps - int(getattr(model, "num_timesteps", 0)))
if remaining_steps > 0:
model.learn(
total_timesteps=remaining_steps,
callback=cbs,
reset_num_timesteps=False,
)
model_path = Path(cfg["model_dir"])
model_path.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
model.save(str(model_path / f"phantom_{cfg['algo']}"))
metrics = evaluate(model, eval_env, int(cfg["eval_episodes"]))
metrics["train/global_step"] = int(model.num_timesteps)
env.close()
eval_env.close()
return model, metrics
def train_once(cfg: dict) -> dict:
algo = cfg["algo"]
if cfg.get("use_jax"):
if not JAX_AVAILABLE:
raise ImportError(
"JAX backend requested but JAX is not installed. "
"Install engine/jax/requirements.txt and jax[tpu] for TPU runs."
)
try:
from .jax.train import train_jax
except Exception as exc: # pragma: no cover
raise ImportError(f"Failed to import JAX trainer: {exc}") from exc
_, metrics = train_jax(cfg)
elif algo == "qtable":
_, metrics = train_qtable(cfg)
else:
_, metrics = train_sb3(cfg)
metrics["sweep/score"] = float(
metrics["eval/reward"] + float(cfg["revenue_weight"]) * metrics["eval/revenue"]
)
return metrics
def run_wandb(
project: str, overrides: dict, mode: str = "online", sweep_mode: bool = False
) -> dict:
if not HAS_WANDB:
raise ImportError("wandb is required for sweep runs")
if not sweep_mode:
pre_cfg = _cfg(overrides)
if pre_cfg.get("use_jax"):
try:
import jax
if jax.process_count() > 1 and jax.process_index() != 0:
return train_once(pre_cfg)
except Exception:
pass
init_kwargs = {"mode": mode}
if sweep_mode:
run = wandb.init(**init_kwargs)
else:
run = wandb.init(project=project, config=overrides, **init_kwargs)
try:
cfg = _cfg(_wandb_cfg_dict())
if sweep_mode:
for k, v in overrides.items():
if k not in wandb.config:
cfg[k] = v
metrics = train_once(cfg)
step = int(metrics.get("train/global_step", cfg["total_timesteps"]))
wandb.log(metrics, step=step)
for k, v in metrics.items():
run.summary[k] = v
return metrics
finally:
if wandb.run is not None:
wandb.finish()
def run_local(overrides: dict) -> dict:
cfg = _cfg(overrides)
metrics = train_once(cfg)
should_print = True
if cfg.get("use_jax"):
try:
import jax
should_print = jax.process_index() == 0
except Exception:
should_print = True
if should_print:
print(json.dumps(metrics, indent=2))
# sentinel line for machine-readable extraction; must stay on one line
print("PHANTOM_METRICS:" + json.dumps(metrics))
return metrics
def main():
p = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="PHANTOM training and W&B sweeps")
p.add_argument("--project", default=DEFAULT_CFG["project"])
p.add_argument("--algo", choices=["ppo", "a2c", "dqn", "qtable"])
p.add_argument("--seed", type=int)
p.add_argument("--total-timesteps", type=int)
p.add_argument("--alpha", type=float)
p.add_argument("--N", type=int)
p.add_argument("--n-products", type=int)
p.add_argument("--lambda-coi", type=float)
p.add_argument("--info-value", type=float)
p.add_argument("--robust-radius", type=float)
p.add_argument("--robust-points", type=int)
p.add_argument("--learning-rate", type=float)
p.add_argument("--gamma", type=float)
p.add_argument("--gae-lambda", type=float)
p.add_argument("--clip-range", type=float)
p.add_argument("--ent-coef", type=float)
p.add_argument("--revenue-weight", type=float)
p.add_argument("--price-low", type=float)
p.add_argument("--price-high", type=float)
p.add_argument("--action-levels", type=int)
p.add_argument("--action-scale-low", type=float)
p.add_argument("--action-scale-high", type=float)
p.add_argument("--max-steps", type=int)
p.add_argument("--margin-floor", type=float)
p.add_argument("--margin-floor-patience", type=int)
p.add_argument("--arch", type=str)
p.add_argument("--activation", type=str)
p.add_argument("--jax", action="store_true")
p.add_argument("--jax-num-envs", type=int)
p.add_argument("--jax-num-steps", type=int)
p.add_argument("--jax-num-minibatches", type=int)
p.add_argument("--jax-update-epochs", type=int)
p.add_argument("--jax-anneal-lr", type=str)
p.add_argument("--checkpoint-interval", type=int)
p.add_argument("--sweep-agent", action="store_true")
p.add_argument("--sweep-id", type=str)
p.add_argument("--count", type=int, default=0)
p.add_argument("--offline", action="store_true")
p.add_argument("--no-wandb", action="store_true")
args = p.parse_args()
overrides = {
"algo": args.algo,
"seed": args.seed,
"total_timesteps": args.total_timesteps,
"alpha": args.alpha,
"N": args.N,
"n_products": args.n_products,
"lambda_coi": args.lambda_coi,
"info_value": args.info_value,
"robust_radius": args.robust_radius,
"robust_points": args.robust_points,
"learning_rate": args.learning_rate,
"gamma": args.gamma,
"gae_lambda": args.gae_lambda,
"clip_range": args.clip_range,
"ent_coef": args.ent_coef,
"revenue_weight": args.revenue_weight,
"price_low": args.price_low,
"price_high": args.price_high,
"action_levels": args.action_levels,
"action_scale_low": args.action_scale_low,
"action_scale_high": args.action_scale_high,
"max_steps": args.max_steps,
"margin_floor": args.margin_floor,
"margin_floor_patience": args.margin_floor_patience,
"arch": args.arch,
"activation": args.activation,
"use_jax": args.jax,
"jax_num_envs": args.jax_num_envs,
"jax_num_steps": args.jax_num_steps,
"jax_num_minibatches": args.jax_num_minibatches,
"jax_update_epochs": args.jax_update_epochs,
"checkpoint_interval": args.checkpoint_interval,
"jax_anneal_lr": _truthy(args.jax_anneal_lr)
if args.jax_anneal_lr is not None
else None,
}
overrides = {k: v for k, v in overrides.items() if v is not None}
if args.sweep_agent:
if args.no_wandb:
raise ValueError("sweep agent requires wandb")
if not args.sweep_id:
raise ValueError("--sweep-id is required with --sweep-agent")
mode = "offline" if args.offline else "online"
wandb.agent(
args.sweep_id,
function=lambda: run_wandb(
args.project, overrides, mode=mode, sweep_mode=True
),
count=args.count if args.count > 0 else None,
)
return
if args.no_wandb or not HAS_WANDB:
run_local(overrides)
return
run_wandb(args.project, overrides, mode="offline" if args.offline else "online")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()

130
engine/wandb_checkpoint.py Normal file
View File

@@ -0,0 +1,130 @@
from __future__ import annotations
import hashlib
import json
import re
from pathlib import Path
from tempfile import TemporaryDirectory
from typing import Any, Mapping
try:
import wandb
from wandb.errors import CommError
HAS_WANDB = True
except ImportError:
HAS_WANDB = False
wandb = None # type: ignore[assignment]
CommError = RuntimeError # type: ignore[assignment]
def _safe_value(value: Any) -> Any:
if isinstance(value, (str, int, float, bool)) or value is None:
return value
if isinstance(value, (list, tuple)):
return [_safe_value(v) for v in value]
if isinstance(value, dict):
return {str(k): _safe_value(value[k]) for k in sorted(value)}
return str(value)
def _safe_scope(scope: str | None) -> str:
raw = "manual" if scope in (None, "") else str(scope)
cleaned = re.sub(r"[^A-Za-z0-9_.-]+", "-", raw).strip("-")
return cleaned or "manual"
def checkpoint_artifact_name(
cfg: Mapping[str, Any], *, backend: str, sweep_id: str | None = None
) -> str:
payload = {k: _safe_value(cfg[k]) for k in sorted(cfg)}
scope = _safe_scope(sweep_id)
canonical = json.dumps(
{"backend": backend, "scope": scope, "cfg": payload},
sort_keys=True,
separators=(",", ":"),
)
digest = hashlib.sha1(canonical.encode("utf-8")).hexdigest()[:14]
return f"phantom-{backend}-ckpt-{scope}-{digest}"[:128]
def _is_missing_artifact_error(exc: Exception) -> bool:
if isinstance(exc, CommError):
msg = str(exc).lower()
return "not found" in msg or "does not exist" in msg
return False
def download_latest_checkpoint(
artifact_name: str, *, file_name: str
) -> tuple[Path, dict[str, Any]] | None:
if not HAS_WANDB or wandb.run is None:
return None
try:
artifact = wandb.run.use_artifact(f"{artifact_name}:latest")
except Exception as exc:
if _is_missing_artifact_error(exc):
return None
raise
directory = Path(artifact.download())
checkpoint_path = directory / file_name
if not checkpoint_path.exists():
return None
metadata = dict(getattr(artifact, "metadata", {}) or {})
return checkpoint_path, metadata
def _aliases_from_metadata(metadata: dict[str, Any] | None) -> list[str]:
aliases = ["latest"]
if metadata is None:
return aliases
if "step" in metadata:
try:
aliases.append(f"step-{int(metadata['step'])}")
except (TypeError, ValueError):
pass
return aliases
def log_checkpoint_bytes(
artifact_name: str,
*,
file_name: str,
payload: bytes,
metadata: dict[str, Any] | None = None,
) -> bool:
if not HAS_WANDB or wandb.run is None:
return False
with TemporaryDirectory(prefix="phantom-ckpt-") as tmpdir:
path = Path(tmpdir) / file_name
path.write_bytes(payload)
artifact = wandb.Artifact(
name=artifact_name,
type="checkpoint",
metadata=metadata or {},
)
artifact.add_file(path.as_posix(), name=file_name)
wandb.log_artifact(artifact, aliases=_aliases_from_metadata(metadata))
return True
def log_checkpoint_file(
artifact_name: str,
*,
file_path: str | Path,
artifact_file_name: str,
metadata: dict[str, Any] | None = None,
) -> bool:
if not HAS_WANDB or wandb.run is None:
return False
src = Path(file_path)
if not src.exists():
return False
artifact = wandb.Artifact(
name=artifact_name,
type="checkpoint",
metadata=metadata or {},
)
artifact.add_file(src.as_posix(), name=artifact_file_name)
wandb.log_artifact(artifact, aliases=_aliases_from_metadata(metadata))
return True

View File

@@ -3,39 +3,108 @@ from gymnasium import spaces
import numpy as np
from .engine import Limbo, MarketEngine, PricingEngine
from .lib.render import DashboardRenderer
from .lib.coi import (
compute_uplift_coi,
extract_purchases,
compute_agent_probability,
)
from .lib.behavior import get_transition_models, trajectory_to_events
from .lib.wrappers import EconomicMetricsWrapper
class _ActionPricingEngine(PricingEngine):
def __init__(self, n_products: int, price_bounds: tuple):
self._prices = np.full(n_products, price_bounds[0], dtype=float)
def set_prices(self, prices: np.ndarray):
self._prices = np.asarray(prices, dtype=float)
def act(self, _):
return self._prices
class PHANTOM(gym.Env):
"""Gymnasium wrapper for the Limbo pricing-market simulation. Platform sets prices, market responds with demand."""
"""Gymnasium wrapper for Limbo pricing-market simulation implementing thesis COI framework
reward = R(p,d) - λ·COI_leak(p,τ') per thesis Section on DR-RL
COI_leak uses behavioral divergence to estimate agent probability f(τ')
robust inner step: min over alpha in Wasserstein interval around nominal alpha
actions are discrete global price-scale moves
"""
metadata = {"render_modes": ["human", "ansi"]}
def __init__(self,
n_products: int = 10,
alpha: float = 0.3,
N: int = 100,
price_bounds: tuple = (10.0, 150.0),
lambda_coi: float = 0.1,
render_mode: str = None):
def __init__(
self,
n_products: int = 10,
alpha: float = 0.3,
N: int = 100,
human_params: tuple = (50.0, 10.0),
agent_params: tuple = (45.0, 15.0),
noise_std: float = 1.0,
price_bounds: tuple = (10.0, 150.0),
lambda_coi: float = 0.1,
coi_window: int = 10,
robust_radius: float = 0.0,
robust_points: int = 5,
info_value: float = 1.0,
action_levels: int = 9,
action_scale_low: float = 0.9,
action_scale_high: float = 1.1,
max_steps: int = 100,
margin_floor: float = 0.05,
margin_floor_patience: int = 5,
render_mode: str = None,
):
super().__init__()
self.n_products = n_products
self.price_bounds = price_bounds
self.lambda_coi = lambda_coi
self.coi_window = coi_window
self.max_steps = max(1, int(max_steps))
self.margin_floor = float(
margin_floor
) # terminate if avg margin stays below this for patience steps
self.margin_floor_patience = max(1, int(margin_floor_patience))
self.render_mode = render_mode
self.alpha = alpha
self.alpha = float(alpha)
self.nominal_alpha = float(alpha)
self.N = N
self.market = MarketEngine(alpha=alpha, N=N)
self._platform_stub = PricingEngine()
self._limbo = Limbo(self._platform_stub, self.market)
self.action_space = spaces.Box(
low=price_bounds[0], high=price_bounds[1],
shape=(n_products,), dtype=np.float32
self.human_params = human_params
self.agent_params = agent_params
self.robust_radius = max(0.0, float(robust_radius))
self.robust_points = max(1, int(robust_points))
self.info_value = float(info_value)
self.action_levels = max(2, int(action_levels))
self._action_scales = np.linspace(
float(action_scale_low), float(action_scale_high), self.action_levels
)
self.market = MarketEngine(
alpha=alpha,
N=N,
human_params=human_params,
agent_params=agent_params,
noise_std=noise_std,
)
self._platform_stub = _ActionPricingEngine(n_products, price_bounds)
self._limbo = Limbo(self._platform_stub, self.market)
self._set_market_mix(self.nominal_alpha)
self.action_space = spaces.Discrete(self.action_levels)
self.observation_space = spaces.Dict(
{
"demand": spaces.Box(
low=0.0, high=100.0, shape=(n_products,), dtype=np.float32
),
"prices": spaces.Box(
low=price_bounds[0],
high=price_bounds[1],
shape=(n_products,),
dtype=np.float32,
),
}
)
self.observation_space = spaces.Dict({
"demand": spaces.Box(low=0.0, high=100.0, shape=(n_products,), dtype=np.float32),
"prices": spaces.Box(low=price_bounds[0], high=price_bounds[1], shape=(n_products,), dtype=np.float32),
})
self._prices = None
self._demand = None
@@ -44,41 +113,179 @@ class PHANTOM(gym.Env):
self._price_history = []
self._revenue_history = []
self._renderer = None
self._initial_episode_prices = None
self._trajectories = [] # session trajectories for agent prob calculation
self.baseline_prices = np.full(self.n_products, self.price_bounds[0])
self._low_margin_streak = 0 # consecutive steps below margin_floor
# load behavioral models for agent probability estimation
try:
self._human_trans, self._agent_trans = get_transition_models()
except Exception:
# fallback if behavioral data unavailable
self._human_trans, self._agent_trans = None, None
def _get_obs(self) -> dict:
demand_arr = np.array([self._demand.get(i, 0.0) for i in range(self.n_products)], dtype=np.float32)
demand_arr = np.array(
[self._demand.get(i, 0.0) for i in range(self.n_products)], dtype=np.float32
)
return {"demand": demand_arr, "prices": self._prices.astype(np.float32)}
def _compute_reward(self, prices: np.ndarray, demand: dict) -> float:
revenue = np.sum(prices * np.array([demand.get(i, 0.0) for i in range(self.n_products)]))
# TODO: implement supra-competitive price punishment
return float(revenue)
def _set_market_mix(self, alpha: float):
alpha = float(np.clip(alpha, 0.0, 1.0))
n_agents = int(self.N * alpha)
self.alpha = alpha
self.market.alpha = alpha
self.market.Nagents = n_agents
self.market.Nhumans = self.N - n_agents
def _decode_action(self, action) -> np.ndarray:
base = (
self._prices
if self._prices is not None
else np.full(self.n_products, self.price_bounds[0], dtype=float)
)
if np.isscalar(action):
idx = int(np.clip(int(action), 0, self.action_levels - 1))
return np.clip(base * self._action_scales[idx], *self.price_bounds)
a = np.asarray(action)
if a.size == 1:
idx = int(np.clip(int(a.reshape(-1)[0]), 0, self.action_levels - 1))
return np.clip(base * self._action_scales[idx], *self.price_bounds)
return np.clip(a.astype(float), *self.price_bounds)
def _compute_agent_prob(self, trajectories=None) -> float:
trajectories = (
self.market.last_trajectories if trajectories is None else trajectories
)
if not trajectories or self._human_trans is None or self._agent_trans is None:
return float(self.market.alpha)
probs = []
for traj in trajectories:
events = trajectory_to_events(traj)
if len(events) < 2:
continue
probs.append(
compute_agent_probability(events, self._human_trans, self._agent_trans)
)
return float(np.mean(probs)) if probs else float(self.market.alpha)
def _compute_reward(
self, prices: np.ndarray, demand: dict, agent_prob: float, trajectories: list
) -> tuple[float, dict]:
demand_arr = np.array(
[demand.get(i, 0.0) for i in range(self.n_products)], dtype=float
)
revenue = float(np.dot(prices, demand_arr))
purchases = extract_purchases(trajectories)
coi_mix = compute_uplift_coi(prices, purchases, self.baseline_prices)
# multiplicative penalty so COI term scales with revenue magnitude
coi_leakage = float(agent_prob * self.info_value)
discount = float(np.clip(1.0 - self.lambda_coi * coi_leakage, 0.0, 1.0))
coi_penalty = revenue * (1.0 - discount) # absolute penalty in revenue units
reward = revenue * discount
return reward, {
"revenue": revenue,
"coi_mix": float(coi_mix),
"coi_base": 0.0,
"coi_leakage": coi_leakage,
"coi_penalty": coi_penalty,
"coi_discount": discount,
}
def _alpha_candidates(self) -> np.ndarray:
if self.robust_radius <= 0.0 or self.robust_points == 1:
return np.array([self.nominal_alpha], dtype=float)
lo = max(0.0, self.nominal_alpha - self.robust_radius)
hi = min(1.0, self.nominal_alpha + self.robust_radius)
return np.linspace(lo, hi, self.robust_points)
def _select_adversarial_alpha(
self, prices: np.ndarray
) -> tuple[float, dict, list, float]:
"""inner robust step: pick worst-case alpha and return its outcome directly to avoid double-sampling"""
candidates = self._alpha_candidates()
best_alpha, worst_reward = float(candidates[0]), np.inf
best_demand, best_trajectories, best_agent_prob = None, [], 0.0
for alpha in candidates:
self._set_market_mix(float(alpha))
demand = self.market.act(prices)
trajectories = list(self.market.last_trajectories)
agent_prob = self._compute_agent_prob(trajectories)
reward, _ = self._compute_reward(prices, demand, agent_prob, trajectories)
if reward < worst_reward:
worst_reward = reward
best_alpha, best_demand, best_trajectories, best_agent_prob = (
float(alpha),
demand,
trajectories,
agent_prob,
)
return best_alpha, best_demand, best_trajectories, best_agent_prob
def _record_history(self):
demand_arr = np.array([self._demand.get(i, 0.0) for i in range(self.n_products)])
demand_arr = np.array(
[self._demand.get(i, 0.0) for i in range(self.n_products)]
)
self._demand_history.append(demand_arr)
self._price_history.append(self._prices.copy())
self._revenue_history.append(np.sum(self._prices * demand_arr))
def reset(self, seed=None, options=None):
super().reset(seed=seed)
self._set_market_mix(self.nominal_alpha)
self._limbo.reset()
self._prices = np.random.uniform(*self.price_bounds, size=self.n_products)
self._demand = self.market.act(self._prices)
self._platform_stub.set_prices(self._prices)
self._limbo.step()
self._demand = self._limbo.step()
self._initial_episode_prices = self._prices.copy()
self._step_count = 0
self._low_margin_streak = 0
self._demand_history, self._price_history, self._revenue_history = [], [], []
self._trajectories = list(getattr(self.market, "last_trajectories", []))
self._record_history()
return self._get_obs(), {}
def step(self, action: np.ndarray):
self._prices = np.clip(action, *self.price_bounds)
self._demand = self.market.act(self._prices)
def step(self, action):
self._prices = self._decode_action(action)
# inner robust step returns worst-case outcome directly, no re-sampling
alpha_adv, self._demand, trajectories, agent_prob = (
self._select_adversarial_alpha(self._prices)
)
self._set_market_mix(alpha_adv)
self._platform_stub.set_prices(self._prices)
self._step_count += 1
self._trajectories.extend(trajectories)
reward, metrics = self._compute_reward(
self._prices, self._demand, agent_prob, trajectories
)
self._record_history()
reward = self._compute_reward(self._prices, self._demand)
terminated = self._step_count >= 100
# soft early termination when margin collapses for too long
avg_margin = float(np.mean(self._prices) - self.price_bounds[0]) / max(
float(np.mean(self._prices)), 1e-6
)
if avg_margin < self.margin_floor:
self._low_margin_streak += 1
else:
self._low_margin_streak = 0
margin_collapsed = self._low_margin_streak >= self.margin_floor_patience
terminated = self._step_count >= self.max_steps or margin_collapsed
return self._get_obs(), reward, terminated, False, {"step": self._step_count}
info = {
"step": self._step_count,
"agent_prob": agent_prob,
"alpha_adv": float(alpha_adv),
"wasserstein_radius": float(self.robust_radius),
**metrics,
"raw_revenue": np.sum(
self._prices
* np.array([self._demand.get(i, 0.0) for i in range(self.n_products)])
),
}
return self._get_obs(), reward, terminated, False, info
def _compute_elasticity(self) -> np.ndarray:
"""point elasticity: e = (dQ/dP) * (P/Q) via finite differences, clipped to [-5, 5]"""
@@ -87,10 +294,16 @@ class PHANTOM(gym.Env):
p, q = np.array(self._price_history), np.array(self._demand_history)
dp, dq = np.diff(p, axis=0), np.diff(q, axis=0)
valid = np.abs(dp) > 0.5
with np.errstate(divide='ignore', invalid='ignore'):
elasticity = np.where(valid, (dq / dp) * (p[:-1] / np.maximum(q[:-1], 1.0)), 0.0)
with np.errstate(divide="ignore", invalid="ignore"):
elasticity = np.where(
valid, (dq / dp) * (p[:-1] / np.maximum(q[:-1], 1.0)), 0.0
)
elasticity = np.nan_to_num(np.clip(elasticity, -5.0, 5.0), nan=0.0)
return np.mean(elasticity, axis=0) if len(elasticity) > 0 else np.zeros(self.n_products)
return (
np.mean(elasticity, axis=0)
if len(elasticity) > 0
else np.zeros(self.n_products)
)
def render(self):
if self.render_mode == "human":
@@ -98,7 +311,9 @@ class PHANTOM(gym.Env):
self._renderer = DashboardRenderer()
self._renderer.render(self)
elif self.render_mode == "ansi":
return f"step={self._step_count}, prices={self._prices}, demand={self._demand}"
return (
f"step={self._step_count}, prices={self._prices}, demand={self._demand}"
)
return None
def close(self):
@@ -108,11 +323,44 @@ class PHANTOM(gym.Env):
if __name__ == "__main__":
env = PHANTOM(n_products=15, alpha=0.3, N=100, render_mode="human")
obs, _ = env.reset()
for step in range(100):
action = env.action_space.sample()
obs, reward, term, trunc, info = env.step(action)
env.render()
if term: break
import wandb
from .lib import MetricsCallback
class RandomPolicy:
"""Minimal SB3-compatible random policy for baseline testing."""
def __init__(self, env):
self.env = env
self.num_timesteps = 0
def learn(self, total_timesteps, callback=None):
callback.model = self
callback.num_timesteps = 0
callback.locals = {}
callback.on_training_start({}, {})
obs, _ = self.env.reset()
for step in range(total_timesteps):
action = self.env.action_space.sample()
obs, reward, term, trunc, info = self.env.step(action)
self.num_timesteps = step + 1
callback.num_timesteps = self.num_timesteps
callback.locals = {"infos": [info]}
callback.on_step()
if term or trunc:
callback.on_rollout_end()
obs, _ = self.env.reset()
return self
def predict(self, obs, **kwargs):
return self.env.action_space.sample(), None
wandb.init(project="phantom-pricing", config={"policy": "random", "alpha": 0.3})
env = EconomicMetricsWrapper(PHANTOM(n_products=15, alpha=0.3, render_mode=None))
model = RandomPolicy(env)
model.learn(total_timesteps=1000, callback=MetricsCallback())
print(f"Episode revenue: {env.episode_revenue:.1f}")
wandb.finish()
env.close()

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,269 @@
"""
Session-Aware Pricing DAG
THIS implements the core pricing computation (policy layer).
Flow: τ → θ̂ → D → p*
1. Fetch recent sessions from Kafka (last 10 active)
2. Extract features per session (τ → θ̂)
3. Map features to demand proxy (θ̂ → D)
4. Compute optimal prices (D → p*)
5. Write to Redis session:{sessionId}:prices
Scheduled: every 1 minute when enabled
"""
from airflow import DAG
from airflow.operators.python import PythonOperator
from airflow.utils.dates import days_ago
from datetime import timedelta
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import logging
import sys
import pickle
sys.path.insert(0, '/opt/airflow')
from procesing.context import PipelineContext
from procesing.providers import SupabaseProvider, BackendAPIProvider
from procesing.steps.session import ExtractSessionFeaturesStep
from procesing.pricers.simple import SimpleSurgePricer, session_features_to_demand
from procesing.pricing import StateSpace
from lib.model_registry import ModelRegistry
DEFAULT_ARGS = {
'owner': 'phantom-research',
'depends_on_past': False,
'email_on_failure': False,
'email_on_retry': False,
'retries': 1,
'retry_delay': timedelta(seconds=30),
}
class CompositeProvider(SupabaseProvider, BackendAPIProvider):
def __init__(self):
SupabaseProvider.__init__(self)
BackendAPIProvider.__init__(self)
def _get_context(store_mode: str = 'hotel') -> PipelineContext:
return PipelineContext(provider=CompositeProvider(), store_mode=store_mode)
def fetch_recent_sessions(**kwargs):
"""
Task: Fetch last N active sessions from Kafka.
Returns: DataFrame of interaction events for recent sessions.
"""
dag_conf = kwargs.get('dag_run').conf if kwargs.get('dag_run') else {}
store_mode = dag_conf.get('store_mode', 'hotel')
session_limit = dag_conf.get('session_limit', 10)
ctx = _get_context(store_mode)
provider = ctx.provider
# fetch all recent interactions from Kafka
try:
interactions_df = provider.fetch_kafka_topic("user-interactions")
except Exception as e:
logging.error(f"Failed to fetch interactions: {e}")
kwargs['ti'].xcom_push(key='sessions_data', value=pickle.dumps(pd.DataFrame()))
return 0
if interactions_df.empty or 'sessionId' not in interactions_df.columns:
kwargs['ti'].xcom_push(key='sessions_data', value=pickle.dumps(pd.DataFrame()))
return 0
# identify last N active sessions (most recent by event count)
recent_sessions = interactions_df['sessionId'].value_counts().head(session_limit).index.tolist()
# filter to only those sessions
filtered_df = interactions_df[interactions_df['sessionId'].isin(recent_sessions)].copy()
kwargs['ti'].xcom_push(key='sessions_data', value=pickle.dumps(filtered_df))
kwargs['ti'].xcom_push(key='session_ids', value=recent_sessions)
logging.info(f"Fetched {len(filtered_df)} events for {len(recent_sessions)} sessions")
return len(recent_sessions)
def extract_session_features(**kwargs):
"""
Task: Extract behavioral features from session trajectories.
THIS implements τ → θ̂ transformation.
"""
ti = kwargs['ti']
sessions_df = pickle.loads(ti.xcom_pull(key='sessions_data'))
if sessions_df.empty:
ti.xcom_push(key='session_features', value=pickle.dumps(pd.DataFrame()))
return 0
dag_conf = kwargs.get('dag_run').conf if kwargs.get('dag_run') else {}
ctx = _get_context(dag_conf.get('store_mode', 'hotel'))
# extract features using vectorized pipeline
feature_extractor = ExtractSessionFeaturesStep(ctx)
features_df = feature_extractor.transform(sessions_df)
ti.xcom_push(key='session_features', value=pickle.dumps(features_df))
logging.info(f"Extracted {len(features_df.columns)} features for {len(features_df)} sessions")
logging.info(f"Feature columns: {list(features_df.columns)}")
logging.info(f"Sample features (first session):\n{features_df.iloc[0].to_dict()}")
return len(features_df)
def compute_session_prices(**kwargs):
"""
Task: Compute optimal prices for each session.
THIS implements θ̂ → D → p* transformation.
"""
ti = kwargs['ti']
features_df = pickle.loads(ti.xcom_pull(key='session_features'))
if features_df.empty:
ti.xcom_push(key='price_results', value=pickle.dumps({}))
return 0
dag_conf = kwargs.get('dag_run').conf if kwargs.get('dag_run') else {}
store_mode = dag_conf.get('store_mode', 'hotel')
ctx = _get_context(store_mode)
# fetch product catalog for base prices
products_df = ctx.provider.fetch_products(store_mode)
if products_df.empty:
logging.error("No products found in catalog")
ti.xcom_push(key='price_results', value=pickle.dumps({}))
return 0
products_df['base_price'] = products_df['metadata'].apply(
lambda m: m.get('base_price', 100.0) if isinstance(m, dict) else 100.0
)
# initialize pricing model
pricer = SimpleSurgePricer(
high_threshold=dag_conf.get('high_threshold', 10),
low_threshold=dag_conf.get('low_threshold', 2),
surge_multiplier=dag_conf.get('surge_multiplier', 1.15),
discount_multiplier=dag_conf.get('discount_multiplier', 0.95)
)
pricer.fit(products_df)
# compute prices per session
price_results = {}
n_products = len(products_df)
logging.info(f"Starting price computation for {len(features_df)} sessions, {n_products} products")
logging.info(f"Pricer config: high_thresh={pricer.high_threshold}, low_thresh={pricer.low_threshold}, surge_mult={pricer.surge_multiplier}")
for idx, session_row in features_df.iterrows():
session_id = session_row.get('sessionId')
if not session_id:
continue
# map features to demand proxy (θ̂ → D)
session_features_single = pd.DataFrame([session_row])
demand_proxy = session_features_to_demand(session_features_single)
logging.info(f"[Session {session_id}] Features → Demand: {demand_proxy:.2f}")
logging.info(f"[Session {session_id}] Key features: velocity={session_row.get('interaction_velocity', 0):.2f}, cart_ratio={session_row.get('cart_to_view_ratio', 0):.2f}, item_views={session_row.get('item_views', 0)}")
# build state space
state_space = StateSpace(
demand=np.full(n_products, demand_proxy), # broadcast session demand to all products
prices=products_df['base_price'].values,
session_features=session_features_single
)
# compute optimal prices (D → p*)
optimal_prices = pricer.predict(state_space)
base_avg = products_df['base_price'].mean()
optimal_avg = optimal_prices.mean()
price_change_pct = ((optimal_avg - base_avg) / base_avg) * 100
logging.info(f"[Session {session_id}] Price adjustment: base_avg={base_avg:.2f}, optimal_avg={optimal_avg:.2f}, change={price_change_pct:+.1f}%")
# store as dict {productId: price}
price_map = {
str(products_df.iloc[i]['id']): float(optimal_prices[i])
for i in range(n_products)
}
price_results[session_id] = price_map
ti.xcom_push(key='price_results', value=pickle.dumps(price_results))
logging.info(f"Computed prices for {len(price_results)} sessions, {n_products} products each")
return len(price_results)
def publish_to_registry(**kwargs):
"""
Task: Write session prices to Redis registry.
THIS is the write path: prices → session:{sessionId}:prices
"""
ti = kwargs['ti']
price_results = pickle.loads(ti.xcom_pull(key='price_results'))
if not price_results:
logging.warning("No prices to publish")
return 0
registry = ModelRegistry()
ttl = kwargs.get('dag_run').conf.get('ttl', 1800) if kwargs.get('dag_run') and kwargs.get('dag_run').conf else 1800
published_count = 0
for session_id, price_map in price_results.items():
registry.set_session_prices(session_id, price_map, ttl=ttl)
published_count += 1
logging.info(f"Published prices for {published_count} sessions to registry (TTL={ttl}s)")
return {
'sessions_published': published_count,
'products_per_session': len(next(iter(price_results.values()))) if price_results else 0,
'status': 'success'
}
# DAG definition
with DAG(
'session_pricing_pipeline',
default_args=DEFAULT_ARGS,
description='Session-aware pricing: extract features → compute prices → publish to registry',
schedule_interval='*/1 * * * *', # every 1 minute
start_date=days_ago(1),
catchup=False,
max_active_runs=1,
tags=['pricing', 'session-aware', 'research', 'real-time'],
) as dag:
t_fetch_sessions = PythonOperator(
task_id='fetch_recent_sessions',
python_callable=fetch_recent_sessions,
provide_context=True,
)
t_extract_features = PythonOperator(
task_id='extract_session_features',
python_callable=extract_session_features,
provide_context=True,
)
t_compute_prices = PythonOperator(
task_id='compute_session_prices',
python_callable=compute_session_prices,
provide_context=True,
)
t_publish = PythonOperator(
task_id='publish_to_registry',
python_callable=publish_to_registry,
provide_context=True,
)
# linear dependency: fetch → extract → compute → publish
t_fetch_sessions >> t_extract_features >> t_compute_prices >> t_publish

View File

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
from .encoder import Window, extract_windows, build_windows, WindowDataset, PrototypeClassifier, train, loocv

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,210 @@
"""Contrastive encoder via trajectory windowing. Classification by prototype distance."""
import sys
sys.path.insert(0, "/home/velocitatem/Documents/Projects/PHANTOM/sim/rl/behavior_loader")
sys.path.insert(0, "/home/velocitatem/Documents/Projects/PHANTOM/experiments/ml")
from sim.rl.behavior_loader.loader import JointLoader, PayloadModel
from arch import TrajectoryEncoder, featurize_trajectory, nt_xent_loss
from typing import List, Dict, Tuple
from dataclasses import dataclass
from datetime import datetime
import numpy as np, torch, torch.nn.functional as F, random, optuna
from torch.utils.data import Dataset, DataLoader
from torch.optim import Adam
from torch.utils.tensorboard import SummaryWriter
RUNS = "/home/velocitatem/Documents/Projects/PHANTOM/experiments/ml/runs"
AGENT_DIR = "/home/velocitatem/Documents/Projects/PHANTOM/experiments/agents/collected_data/"
HUMAN_DIR = "/home/velocitatem/Documents/Projects/PHANTOM/experiments/collected_data/"
@dataclass
class Window:
events: List[PayloadModel]
traj_id: str
label: int # 0=human, 1=agent
def extract_windows(events: List[PayloadModel], traj_id: str, label: int,
sizes: List[int] = [5, 10, 15], stride: int = 2) -> List[Window]:
"""Multi-scale overlapping windows from trajectory"""
n = len(events)
wins = [Window(events[i:i+s], traj_id, label) for s in sizes if n >= s for i in range(0, n-s+1, stride)]
if n >= 3: wins.append(Window(events, traj_id, label)) # full traj
return wins
def build_windows(data: Dict[str, List], sizes=[5,10,15], stride=2) -> List[Window]:
return [w for tid, evts in data.items()
for w in extract_windows(evts, tid, 0 if tid.startswith('human_') else 1, sizes, stride)]
class WindowDataset(Dataset):
"""Yields (anchor, positive) pairs from same class"""
def __init__(self, windows: List[Window], dim: int = 64):
self.wins, self.dim = windows, dim
self.by_label = {0: [i for i,w in enumerate(windows) if w.label==0],
1: [i for i,w in enumerate(windows) if w.label==1]}
self.by_traj = {}
for i, w in enumerate(windows): self.by_traj.setdefault(w.traj_id, []).append(i)
def __len__(self): return len(self.wins)
def _feat(self, evts): return featurize_trajectory(evts, None, self.dim)
def _aug(self, evts): # subsample 70-100%
if len(evts) < 4: return evts
k = max(3, int(len(evts) * random.uniform(0.7, 1.0)))
start = random.randint(0, len(evts) - k)
return evts[start:start+k]
def __getitem__(self, idx):
w = self.wins[idx]
pool = [i for i in self.by_label[w.label] if self.wins[i].traj_id != w.traj_id]
pos_idx = random.choice(pool) if pool else idx
a = torch.tensor(self._feat(self._aug(w.events)), dtype=torch.float32)
p = torch.tensor(self._feat(self._aug(self.wins[pos_idx].events)), dtype=torch.float32)
return a, p, w.label
class PrototypeClassifier:
"""Classify by distance to class centroids"""
def __init__(self, encoder: TrajectoryEncoder, device = 'cuda', dim=64):
self.enc, self.dev, self.dim = encoder, device, dim
self.centroids = {0: None, 1: None}
def fit(self, windows: List[Window]):
self.enc.eval()
embs = {0: [], 1: []}
with torch.no_grad():
for w in windows:
x = torch.tensor(featurize_trajectory(w.events, None, self.dim), dtype=torch.float32)
z = self.enc(x.unsqueeze(0).unsqueeze(1).to(self.dev))
embs[w.label].append(z)
self.centroids = {k: torch.cat(v).mean(0, keepdim=True) if v else None for k, v in embs.items()}
return self
def predict(self, events: List[PayloadModel]) -> Tuple[int, float, Dict]:
"""Returns (pred, confidence, debug). Confidence via softmax over -distances."""
self.enc.eval()
with torch.no_grad():
x = torch.tensor(featurize_trajectory(events, None, self.dim), dtype=torch.float32)
z = self.enc(x.unsqueeze(0).unsqueeze(1).to(self.dev))
dists = {k: torch.norm(z - c, dim=1).item() for k, c in self.centroids.items() if c is not None}
if not dists: return 0, 0.0, {'d': {}, 'p': [0.5, 0.5]}
pred = min(dists, key=dists.get)
d0, d1 = dists.get(0, 1e6), dists.get(1, 1e6) # softmax(-d) gives higher prob to closer centroid
probs = F.softmax(torch.tensor([[-d0, -d1]]), dim=1).squeeze()
return pred, probs[pred].item(), {'d': dists, 'p': probs.tolist()}
def train(epochs=200, lr=5e-4, batch=16, dim=64, emb=32, temp=0.5,
sizes=[5,10,15], stride=2, name=None, verbose=True):
data = JointLoader(HUMAN_DIR, AGENT_DIR).get_data()
wins = build_windows(data, sizes, stride)
if verbose: print(f"Windows: {len(wins)} ({sum(w.label==0 for w in wins)}h/{sum(w.label==1 for w in wins)}a)")
dev = torch.device('cuda' if torch.cuda.is_available() else 'cpu')
enc = TrajectoryEncoder(dim, emb).to(dev)
opt = Adam(enc.parameters(), lr=lr)
loader = DataLoader(WindowDataset(wins, dim), batch_size=batch, shuffle=True, drop_last=True)
name = name or f"enc_{dim}_{emb}_{datetime.now():%Y%m%d_%H%M%S}"
writer = SummaryWriter(f"{RUNS}/encoder/{name}")
for ep in range(epochs):
enc.train()
total, n = 0.0, 0
for a, p, _ in loader:
loss = nt_xent_loss(enc(a.unsqueeze(1).to(dev)), enc(p.unsqueeze(1).to(dev)), temp)
opt.zero_grad(); loss.backward(); opt.step()
total += loss.item(); n += 1
avg = total / max(n, 1)
writer.add_scalar('loss-ntxent', avg, ep)
if verbose and (ep+1) % 20 == 0: print(f"Epoch {ep+1}: {avg:.4f}")
writer.close()
return enc, wins, dev
def loocv(epochs=100, lr=5e-4, dim=64, emb=32, temp=0.5, sizes=[5,10,15], stride=2, verbose=True):
"""Leave-one-trajectory-out CV"""
data = JointLoader(HUMAN_DIR, AGENT_DIR).get_data()
dev = torch.device('cuda' if torch.cuda.is_available() else 'cpu')
results = []
for test_id in data:
train_data = {k: v for k, v in data.items() if k != test_id}
if not any(k.startswith('human_') for k in train_data) or not any(k.startswith('agent_') for k in train_data):
continue
wins = build_windows(train_data, sizes, stride)
enc = TrajectoryEncoder(dim, emb).to(dev)
opt = Adam(enc.parameters(), lr=lr)
loader = DataLoader(WindowDataset(wins, dim), batch_size=min(16, len(wins)//2 or 1),
shuffle=True, drop_last=len(wins)>2)
for _ in range(epochs):
enc.train()
for a, p, _ in loader:
loss = nt_xent_loss(enc(a.unsqueeze(1).to(dev)), enc(p.unsqueeze(1).to(dev)), temp)
opt.zero_grad(); loss.backward(); opt.step()
clf = PrototypeClassifier(enc, dev, dim).fit(wins)
pred, conf, dbg = clf.predict(data[test_id])
actual = 0 if test_id.startswith('human_') else 1
results.append((pred, actual, conf))
if verbose: print(f"{test_id[:18]}: pred={pred} conf={conf:.2f} actual={actual} {'OK' if pred==actual else 'MISS'}")
if results:
acc = sum(p==a for p,a,_ in results) / len(results)
if verbose: print(f"\nAccuracy: {acc:.1%} ({sum(p==a for p,a,_ in results)}/{len(results)})")
return acc, results
return 0.0, []
def hparam_tune(n_trials=50, epochs=60, n_jobs=2, verbose=True):
"""Optuna hyperparameter search maximizing LOOCV accuracy"""
def objective(trial):
lr = trial.suggest_float('lr', 1e-5, 1e-2, log=True)
dim = trial.suggest_categorical('dim', [32, 64, 128, 256])
emb = trial.suggest_categorical('emb', [16, 32, 64, 128])
temp = trial.suggest_float('temp', 0.05, 1.0)
stride = trial.suggest_int('stride', 1, 4)
sizes = [trial.suggest_int(f's{i}', 3, 20) for i in range(3)]
sizes = sorted(set(sizes)) # unique sorted
acc, _ = loocv(epochs, lr, dim, emb, temp, sizes, stride, verbose=False)
return acc
study = optuna.create_study(direction='maximize', study_name='encoder_hparam',
sampler=optuna.samplers.TPESampler(seed=42))
study.optimize(objective, n_trials=n_trials, n_jobs=n_jobs, show_progress_bar=verbose)
best = study.best_params
if verbose:
print(f"\nBest accuracy: {study.best_value:.1%}")
print(f"Best params: {best}")
return best, study
if __name__ == "__main__":
import argparse
p = argparse.ArgumentParser()
p.add_argument('--mode', choices=['train', 'eval', 'hparam'], default='train')
p.add_argument('--epochs', type=int, default=200)
p.add_argument('--lr', type=float, default=5e-4)
p.add_argument('--dim', type=int, default=128)
p.add_argument('--emb', type=int, default=64)
p.add_argument('--temp', type=float, default=0.1)
p.add_argument('--sizes', type=str, default='5,10,15')
p.add_argument('--stride', type=int, default=2)
p.add_argument('--n_trials', type=int, default=50)
args = p.parse_args()
sizes = [int(x) for x in args.sizes.split(',')]
if args.mode == 'train':
enc, wins, dev = train(args.epochs, args.lr, 16, args.dim, args.emb, args.temp, sizes, args.stride)
elif args.mode == 'hparam':
best, study = hparam_tune(args.n_trials, min(args.epochs, 60))
else:
loocv(args.epochs, args.lr, args.dim, args.emb, args.temp, sizes, args.stride)

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,957 @@
{
"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 10,
"id": "62eafcd9-5462-4063-8873-0e7fb9add907",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"True"
]
},
"execution_count": 10,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"from kafka import KafkaConsumer\n",
"import pandas as pd\n",
"import json\n",
"import numpy as np\n",
"import os\n",
"from dotenv import load_dotenv\n",
"import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
"from IPython.display import display, SVG, Image\n",
"load_dotenv()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 11,
"id": "4af65cb4-e8cf-4877-b2db-13ac19f3838f",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>\n",
"RangeIndex: 73 entries, 0 to 72\n",
"Data columns (total 13 columns):\n",
" # Column Non-Null Count Dtype \n",
"--- ------ -------------- ----- \n",
" 0 sessionId 73 non-null object \n",
" 1 eventName 73 non-null object \n",
" 2 page 73 non-null object \n",
" 3 productId 67 non-null object \n",
" 4 storeMode 73 non-null object \n",
" 5 userAgent 73 non-null object \n",
" 6 ts 73 non-null object \n",
" 7 metadata_referrer 6 non-null object \n",
" 8 metadata_roomType 45 non-null object \n",
" 9 metadata_price 45 non-null float64\n",
" 10 metadata_nights 45 non-null float64\n",
" 11 metadata_elementText 22 non-null object \n",
" 12 metadata_dwellTime 22 non-null float64\n",
"dtypes: float64(3), object(10)\n",
"memory usage: 7.5+ KB\n"
]
}
],
"source": [
"KAFKA_PORT=os.getenv(\"KAFKA_PORT\", 9092)\n",
"topic = \"user-interactions\"\n",
"consumer = KafkaConsumer(\n",
" topic, \n",
" enable_auto_commit=True,\n",
" value_deserializer=lambda x: json.loads(x.decode('utf-8')),\n",
" auto_offset_reset='earliest', \n",
" bootstrap_servers=['localhost:9092'])\n",
"messages=consumer.poll(timeout_ms=1000,max_records=10000)\n",
"df = []\n",
"for m in messages.values():\n",
" for i in m:\n",
" df.append(i.value)\n",
"df = pd.DataFrame(df)\n",
"# explode metadata col json\n",
"df = df.join(pd.json_normalize(df.pop(\"metadata\"), sep=\".\").add_prefix(\"metadata_\"))\n",
"df.info()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 12,
"id": "f6819a1c-32ab-49c7-845b-5df7bf60f561",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
" vertical-align: middle;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
" vertical-align: top;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe thead th {\n",
" text-align: right;\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>sessionId</th>\n",
" <th>eventName</th>\n",
" <th>page</th>\n",
" <th>productId</th>\n",
" <th>storeMode</th>\n",
" <th>userAgent</th>\n",
" <th>ts</th>\n",
" <th>metadata_referrer</th>\n",
" <th>metadata_roomType</th>\n",
" <th>metadata_price</th>\n",
" <th>metadata_nights</th>\n",
" <th>metadata_elementText</th>\n",
" <th>metadata_dwellTime</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>0</th>\n",
" <td>d176d7c9-4027-4702-9e31-2a71395cdda0</td>\n",
" <td>page_view</td>\n",
" <td>/products</td>\n",
" <td>None</td>\n",
" <td>hotel</td>\n",
" <td>Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64) AppleWebKit/53...</td>\n",
" <td>2025-11-14T13:23:46.270Z</td>\n",
" <td></td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1</th>\n",
" <td>f0317a5d-e424-44e9-b784-c8f7291ffe31</td>\n",
" <td>page_view</td>\n",
" <td>/</td>\n",
" <td>None</td>\n",
" <td>hotel</td>\n",
" <td>Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64; rv:143.0) Geck...</td>\n",
" <td>2025-11-14T13:26:00.291Z</td>\n",
" <td></td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2</th>\n",
" <td>f0317a5d-e424-44e9-b784-c8f7291ffe31</td>\n",
" <td>page_view</td>\n",
" <td>/products</td>\n",
" <td>None</td>\n",
" <td>hotel</td>\n",
" <td>Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64; rv:143.0) Geck...</td>\n",
" <td>2025-11-14T13:26:07.769Z</td>\n",
" <td></td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>3</th>\n",
" <td>f0317a5d-e424-44e9-b784-c8f7291ffe31</td>\n",
" <td>view_item_page</td>\n",
" <td>/products</td>\n",
" <td>htl-0</td>\n",
" <td>hotel</td>\n",
" <td>Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64; rv:143.0) Geck...</td>\n",
" <td>2025-11-14T13:26:15.010Z</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>Premium Room</td>\n",
" <td>269.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>4</th>\n",
" <td>238dc588-a7ab-4c0e-bccd-6abca5076c66</td>\n",
" <td>page_view</td>\n",
" <td>/products</td>\n",
" <td>None</td>\n",
" <td>hotel</td>\n",
" <td>Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_15_7...</td>\n",
" <td>2025-11-14T13:27:15.457Z</td>\n",
" <td></td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>5</th>\n",
" <td>238dc588-a7ab-4c0e-bccd-6abca5076c66</td>\n",
" <td>view_item_page</td>\n",
" <td>/products</td>\n",
" <td>htl-0</td>\n",
" <td>hotel</td>\n",
" <td>Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_15_7...</td>\n",
" <td>2025-11-14T13:27:15.591Z</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>Premium Room</td>\n",
" <td>264.0</td>\n",
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>432</th>\n",
" <td>214d9fad-9b00-40c3-bd0e-7739b6acd654</td>\n",
" <td>click</td>\n",
" <td>1762448192425</td>\n",
" <td>DIV</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>/</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>1623.0</td>\n",
" <td>493.0</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>6</th>\n",
" <td>238dc588-a7ab-4c0e-bccd-6abca5076c66</td>\n",
" <td>view_item_page</td>\n",
" <td>/products</td>\n",
" <td>htl-0</td>\n",
" <td>hotel</td>\n",
" <td>Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_15_7...</td>\n",
" <td>2025-11-14T13:27:21.483Z</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>Premium Room</td>\n",
" <td>264.0</td>\n",
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>7</th>\n",
" <td>238dc588-a7ab-4c0e-bccd-6abca5076c66</td>\n",
" <td>hover_over_title</td>\n",
" <td>/products</td>\n",
" <td>htl-0</td>\n",
" <td>hotel</td>\n",
" <td>Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_15_7...</td>\n",
" <td>2025-11-14T13:27:22.646Z</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>Grand Plaza Hotel</td>\n",
" <td>1200.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>8</th>\n",
" <td>238dc588-a7ab-4c0e-bccd-6abca5076c66</td>\n",
" <td>view_item_page</td>\n",
" <td>/products</td>\n",
" <td>htl-0</td>\n",
" <td>hotel</td>\n",
" <td>Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_15_7...</td>\n",
" <td>2025-11-14T13:27:25.889Z</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>Premium Room</td>\n",
" <td>264.0</td>\n",
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>35</th>\n",
" <td>013fc334-4045-4d5a-8739-dd0a8766a63b</td>\n",
" <td>page_view</td>\n",
" <td>/products</td>\n",
" <td>None</td>\n",
" <td>hotel</td>\n",
" <td>Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64) AppleWebKit/53...</td>\n",
" <td>2025-11-14T13:53:59.993Z</td>\n",
" <td></td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>36</th>\n",
" <td>013fc334-4045-4d5a-8739-dd0a8766a63b</td>\n",
" <td>view_item_page</td>\n",
" <td>/products</td>\n",
" <td>htl-0</td>\n",
" <td>hotel</td>\n",
" <td>Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64) AppleWebKit/53...</td>\n",
" <td>2025-11-14T13:54:10.705Z</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>Premium Room</td>\n",
" <td>223.0</td>\n",
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>37</th>\n",
" <td>013fc334-4045-4d5a-8739-dd0a8766a63b</td>\n",
" <td>hover_over_title</td>\n",
" <td>/products</td>\n",
" <td>htl-0</td>\n",
" <td>hotel</td>\n",
" <td>Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64) AppleWebKit/53...</td>\n",
" <td>2025-11-14T13:54:11.771Z</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>416.0</td>\n",
" <td>397.0</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>Grand Plaza Hotel</td>\n",
" <td>1200.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>38</th>\n",
" <td>013fc334-4045-4d5a-8739-dd0a8766a63b</td>\n",
" <td>view_item_page</td>\n",
" <td>/products</td>\n",
" <td>htl-1</td>\n",
" <td>hotel</td>\n",
" <td>Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64) AppleWebKit/53...</td>\n",
" <td>2025-11-14T13:54:29.772Z</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>Standard Room</td>\n",
" <td>267.0</td>\n",
" <td>5.0</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>39</th>\n",
" <td>013fc334-4045-4d5a-8739-dd0a8766a63b</td>\n",
" <td>hover_over_title</td>\n",
" <td>/products</td>\n",
" <td>htl-1</td>\n",
" <td>hotel</td>\n",
" <td>Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64) AppleWebKit/53...</td>\n",
" <td>2025-11-14T13:54:30.833Z</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>Seaside Resort</td>\n",
" <td>1200.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" sessionId eventName page \\\n",
"0 d176d7c9-4027-4702-9e31-2a71395cdda0 page_view /products \n",
"1 f0317a5d-e424-44e9-b784-c8f7291ffe31 page_view / \n",
"2 f0317a5d-e424-44e9-b784-c8f7291ffe31 page_view /products \n",
"3 f0317a5d-e424-44e9-b784-c8f7291ffe31 view_item_page /products \n",
"4 238dc588-a7ab-4c0e-bccd-6abca5076c66 page_view /products \n",
"5 238dc588-a7ab-4c0e-bccd-6abca5076c66 view_item_page /products \n",
"6 238dc588-a7ab-4c0e-bccd-6abca5076c66 view_item_page /products \n",
"7 238dc588-a7ab-4c0e-bccd-6abca5076c66 hover_over_title /products \n",
"8 238dc588-a7ab-4c0e-bccd-6abca5076c66 view_item_page /products \n",
"35 013fc334-4045-4d5a-8739-dd0a8766a63b page_view /products \n",
"36 013fc334-4045-4d5a-8739-dd0a8766a63b view_item_page /products \n",
"37 013fc334-4045-4d5a-8739-dd0a8766a63b hover_over_title /products \n",
"38 013fc334-4045-4d5a-8739-dd0a8766a63b view_item_page /products \n",
"39 013fc334-4045-4d5a-8739-dd0a8766a63b hover_over_title /products \n",
"\n",
" productId storeMode userAgent \\\n",
"0 None hotel Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64) AppleWebKit/53... \n",
"1 None hotel Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64; rv:143.0) Geck... \n",
"2 None hotel Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64; rv:143.0) Geck... \n",
"3 htl-0 hotel Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64; rv:143.0) Geck... \n",
"4 None hotel Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_15_7... \n",
"5 htl-0 hotel Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_15_7... \n",
"6 htl-0 hotel Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_15_7... \n",
"7 htl-0 hotel Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_15_7... \n",
"8 htl-0 hotel Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_15_7... \n",
"35 None hotel Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64) AppleWebKit/53... \n",
"36 htl-0 hotel Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64) AppleWebKit/53... \n",
"37 htl-0 hotel Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64) AppleWebKit/53... \n",
"38 htl-1 hotel Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64) AppleWebKit/53... \n",
"39 htl-1 hotel Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64) AppleWebKit/53... \n",
"\n",
" ts metadata_referrer metadata_roomType \\\n",
"0 2025-11-14T13:23:46.270Z NaN \n",
"1 2025-11-14T13:26:00.291Z NaN \n",
"2 2025-11-14T13:26:07.769Z NaN \n",
"3 2025-11-14T13:26:15.010Z NaN Premium Room \n",
"4 2025-11-14T13:27:15.457Z NaN \n",
"5 2025-11-14T13:27:15.591Z NaN Premium Room \n",
"6 2025-11-14T13:27:21.483Z NaN Premium Room \n",
"7 2025-11-14T13:27:22.646Z NaN NaN \n",
"8 2025-11-14T13:27:25.889Z NaN Premium Room \n",
"35 2025-11-14T13:53:59.993Z NaN \n",
"36 2025-11-14T13:54:10.705Z NaN Premium Room \n",
"37 2025-11-14T13:54:11.771Z NaN NaN \n",
"38 2025-11-14T13:54:29.772Z NaN Standard Room \n",
"39 2025-11-14T13:54:30.833Z NaN NaN \n",
"\n",
" metadata_price metadata_nights metadata_elementText metadata_dwellTime \n",
"0 NaN NaN NaN NaN \n",
"1 NaN NaN NaN NaN \n",
"2 NaN NaN NaN NaN \n",
"3 269.0 1.0 NaN NaN \n",
"4 NaN NaN NaN NaN \n",
"5 264.0 2.0 NaN NaN \n",
"6 264.0 2.0 NaN NaN \n",
"7 NaN NaN Grand Plaza Hotel 1200.0 \n",
"8 264.0 2.0 NaN NaN \n",
"35 NaN NaN NaN NaN \n",
"36 223.0 3.0 NaN NaN \n",
"37 NaN NaN Grand Plaza Hotel 1200.0 \n",
"38 267.0 5.0 NaN NaN \n",
"39 NaN NaN Seaside Resort 1200.0 "
]
},
"execution_count": 12,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"df.groupby('sessionId').head()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 13,
"id": "380eca5f-8304-4fb2-be32-e8bcfd312085",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"['013fc334-4045-4d5a-8739-dd0a8766a63b',\n",
" '238dc588-a7ab-4c0e-bccd-6abca5076c66',\n",
" 'd176d7c9-4027-4702-9e31-2a71395cdda0',\n",
" 'f0317a5d-e424-44e9-b784-c8f7291ffe31']"
]
},
"execution_count": 13,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"sessions = list(set(df['sessionId'])); sessions # 238dc588-a7ab-4c0e-bccd-6abca5076c66"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 14,
"id": "f4ae6f81-dcb8-44be-aee7-30dbc3a6bae1",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# map sessions to experiments"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 15,
"id": "050d90a4-20a9-47f5-b998-c31178a54cb3",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"def build_transition_prob_matrix(df: pd.DataFrame):\n",
" df = df.dropna(subset=['eventName'])\n",
" events = df['eventName'].tolist()\n",
" labels = pd.Index(events).unique().tolist()\n",
" idx = {e:i for i,e in enumerate(labels)}\n",
" M = np.zeros((len(labels), len(labels)), dtype=float)\n",
" for a, b in zip(events, events[1:]):\n",
" M[idx[a], idx[b]] += 1\n",
" row_sums = M.sum(axis=1, keepdims=True)\n",
" with np.errstate(divide='ignore', invalid='ignore'):\n",
" P = np.divide(M, row_sums, where=row_sums>0) # row-normalized\n",
" return P, labels"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 16,
"id": "e68f9004-82f5-4826-aece-e3dc6e15a18f",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# https://medium.com/data-science/time-series-data-markov-transition-matrices-7060771e362b\n",
"from graphviz import Digraph\n",
"import numpy as np\n",
"import pandas as pd\n",
"\n",
"def _as_prob_df(matrix, labels=None):\n",
" \"\"\"Return a square DataFrame with index=columns=labels.\"\"\"\n",
" if isinstance(matrix, pd.DataFrame):\n",
" # Ensure square and aligned\n",
" assert (matrix.index == matrix.columns).all(), \"Index/columns must match.\"\n",
" return matrix\n",
" matrix = np.asarray(matrix, dtype=float)\n",
" assert matrix.shape[0] == matrix.shape[1], \"Matrix must be square.\"\n",
" if labels is None:\n",
" raise ValueError(\"labels are required when matrix is not a DataFrame\")\n",
" assert len(labels) == matrix.shape[0], \"labels length must match matrix size.\"\n",
" return pd.DataFrame(matrix, index=list(labels), columns=list(labels))\n",
"\n",
"def _df_to_edgelist(P: pd.DataFrame, threshold=0.0, round_digits=2):\n",
" \"\"\"Build weighted edges > threshold.\"\"\"\n",
" edges = []\n",
" for src in P.index:\n",
" for dst in P.columns:\n",
" w = float(P.loc[src, dst])\n",
" if w > threshold:\n",
" edges.append((str(src), str(dst), f\"{w:.{round_digits}f}\"))\n",
" return edges\n",
"\n",
"def render_graph(fname, matrix, ls_index=None, threshold=0.0, fmt=\"svg\", view=False):\n",
" \"\"\"\n",
" fname: output file stem (no extension)\n",
" matrix: NumPy array or pandas DataFrame of transition PROBABILITIES\n",
" ls_index: ordered labels (required if matrix is not a DataFrame)\n",
" threshold: hide edges with weight <= threshold\n",
" fmt: 'svg'|'png'|'pdf' etc.\n",
" view: open after rendering\n",
" \"\"\"\n",
" P = _as_prob_df(matrix, labels=ls_index)\n",
" edges = _df_to_edgelist(P, threshold=threshold)\n",
"\n",
" g = Digraph(format=fmt)\n",
" g.attr(rankdir=\"LR\", size=\"30\")\n",
" g.attr(\"node\", shape=\"circle\")\n",
"\n",
" # ensure isolated nodes appear\n",
" for node in P.index:\n",
" g.node(str(node), width=\"1\", height=\"1\")\n",
"\n",
" for src, dst, label in edges:\n",
" g.edge(src, dst, label=label)\n",
"\n",
" g.render(fname, view=view, cleanup=True)\n",
" return g\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 17,
"id": "e255a2c1-6454-4e5e-89f6-ef8ac51ab6cc",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"013fc334-4045-4d5a-8739-dd0a8766a63b\n"
]
},
{
"data": {
"image/svg+xml": [
"<?xml version=\"1.0\" encoding=\"UTF-8\" standalone=\"no\"?>\n",
"<!DOCTYPE svg PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD SVG 1.1//EN\"\n",
" \"http://www.w3.org/Graphics/SVG/1.1/DTD/svg11.dtd\">\n",
"<!-- Generated by graphviz version 13.1.2 (0)\n",
" -->\n",
"<!-- Pages: 1 -->\n",
"<svg width=\"565pt\" height=\"354pt\"\n",
" viewBox=\"0.00 0.00 565.00 354.00\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\">\n",
"<g id=\"graph0\" class=\"graph\" transform=\"scale(1 1) rotate(0) translate(4 349.64)\">\n",
"<polygon fill=\"white\" stroke=\"none\" points=\"-4,4 -4,-349.64 561.05,-349.64 561.05,4 -4,4\"/>\n",
"<!-- page_view -->\n",
"<g id=\"node1\" class=\"node\">\n",
"<title>page_view</title>\n",
"<ellipse fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" cx=\"48.19\" cy=\"-235.83\" rx=\"48.19\" ry=\"48.19\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"48.19\" y=\"-231.16\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">page_view</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- view_item_page -->\n",
"<g id=\"node2\" class=\"node\">\n",
"<title>view_item_page</title>\n",
"<ellipse fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" cx=\"232.88\" cy=\"-235.83\" rx=\"69.01\" ry=\"69.01\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"232.88\" y=\"-231.16\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">view_item_page</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- page_view&#45;&gt;view_item_page -->\n",
"<g id=\"edge1\" class=\"edge\">\n",
"<title>page_view&#45;&gt;view_item_page</title>\n",
"<path fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" d=\"M96.71,-235.83C113.69,-235.83 133.31,-235.83 152.25,-235.83\"/>\n",
"<polygon fill=\"black\" stroke=\"black\" points=\"152.1,-239.33 162.1,-235.83 152.1,-232.33 152.1,-239.33\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"130.12\" y=\"-239.78\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">1.00</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- view_item_page&#45;&gt;view_item_page -->\n",
"<g id=\"edge2\" class=\"edge\">\n",
"<title>view_item_page&#45;&gt;view_item_page</title>\n",
"<path fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" d=\"M214.74,-302.59C217.1,-314.51 223.14,-322.84 232.88,-322.84 239.27,-322.84 244.07,-319.26 247.28,-313.42\"/>\n",
"<polygon fill=\"black\" stroke=\"black\" points=\"250.57,-314.62 250.52,-304.02 243.95,-312.33 250.57,-314.62\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"232.88\" y=\"-326.79\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">0.68</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- hover_over_title -->\n",
"<g id=\"node3\" class=\"node\">\n",
"<title>hover_over_title</title>\n",
"<ellipse fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" cx=\"463.22\" cy=\"-275.83\" rx=\"69.81\" ry=\"69.81\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"463.22\" y=\"-271.16\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">hover_over_title</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- view_item_page&#45;&gt;hover_over_title -->\n",
"<g id=\"edge3\" class=\"edge\">\n",
"<title>view_item_page&#45;&gt;hover_over_title</title>\n",
"<path fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" d=\"M300.48,-250.14C307.03,-251.43 313.58,-252.69 319.89,-253.83 340.12,-257.51 362.05,-261.1 382.5,-264.27\"/>\n",
"<polygon fill=\"black\" stroke=\"black\" points=\"381.77,-267.7 392.19,-265.76 382.83,-260.78 381.77,-267.7\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"335.64\" y=\"-263.17\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">0.29</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- hover_over_paragraph -->\n",
"<g id=\"node4\" class=\"node\">\n",
"<title>hover_over_paragraph</title>\n",
"<ellipse fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" cx=\"463.22\" cy=\"-93.83\" rx=\"93.83\" ry=\"93.83\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"463.22\" y=\"-89.16\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">hover_over_paragraph</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- view_item_page&#45;&gt;hover_over_paragraph -->\n",
"<g id=\"edge4\" class=\"edge\">\n",
"<title>view_item_page&#45;&gt;hover_over_paragraph</title>\n",
"<path fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" d=\"M292.09,-199.63C316.79,-184.27 346.14,-166.02 373.44,-149.04\"/>\n",
"<polygon fill=\"black\" stroke=\"black\" points=\"375.08,-152.15 381.72,-143.89 371.38,-146.2 375.08,-152.15\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"335.64\" y=\"-185.68\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">0.04</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- hover_over_title&#45;&gt;view_item_page -->\n",
"<g id=\"edge5\" class=\"edge\">\n",
"<title>hover_over_title&#45;&gt;view_item_page</title>\n",
"<path fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" d=\"M399.53,-246.73C384.12,-240.88 367.42,-235.6 351.39,-232.58 339.13,-230.28 326.03,-229.26 313.19,-229.04\"/>\n",
"<polygon fill=\"black\" stroke=\"black\" points=\"313.51,-225.54 303.51,-229.04 313.51,-232.54 313.51,-225.54\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"335.64\" y=\"-236.53\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">1.00</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"</svg>\n"
],
"text/plain": [
"<graphviz.graphs.Digraph at 0x7f0779e818b0>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"[]\n"
]
},
{
"data": {
"image/svg+xml": [
"<?xml version=\"1.0\" encoding=\"UTF-8\" standalone=\"no\"?>\n",
"<!DOCTYPE svg PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD SVG 1.1//EN\"\n",
" \"http://www.w3.org/Graphics/SVG/1.1/DTD/svg11.dtd\">\n",
"<!-- Generated by graphviz version 13.1.2 (0)\n",
" -->\n",
"<!-- Pages: 1 -->\n",
"<svg width=\"8pt\" height=\"8pt\"\n",
" viewBox=\"0.00 0.00 8.00 8.00\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\">\n",
"<g id=\"graph0\" class=\"graph\" transform=\"scale(1 1) rotate(0) translate(4 4)\">\n",
"<polygon fill=\"white\" stroke=\"none\" points=\"-4,4 -4,-4 4,-4 4,4 -4,4\"/>\n",
"</g>\n",
"</svg>\n"
],
"text/plain": [
"<graphviz.graphs.Digraph at 0x7f6800fac980>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"[[0.00000000e+000 1.00000000e+000 0.00000000e+000 0.00000000e+000]\n",
" [0.00000000e+000 6.78571429e-001 2.85714286e-001 3.57142857e-002]\n",
" [0.00000000e+000 1.00000000e+000 0.00000000e+000 0.00000000e+000]\n",
" [2.05833592e-312 2.29175545e-312 4.94065646e-324 6.92110218e-310]]\n",
"238dc588-a7ab-4c0e-bccd-6abca5076c66\n"
]
},
{
"data": {
"image/svg+xml": [
"<?xml version=\"1.0\" encoding=\"UTF-8\" standalone=\"no\"?>\n",
"<!DOCTYPE svg PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD SVG 1.1//EN\"\n",
" \"http://www.w3.org/Graphics/SVG/1.1/DTD/svg11.dtd\">\n",
"<!-- Generated by graphviz version 13.1.2 (0)\n",
" -->\n",
"<!-- Pages: 1 -->\n",
"<svg width=\"565pt\" height=\"354pt\"\n",
" viewBox=\"0.00 0.00 565.00 354.00\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\">\n",
"<g id=\"graph0\" class=\"graph\" transform=\"scale(1 1) rotate(0) translate(4 349.64)\">\n",
"<polygon fill=\"white\" stroke=\"none\" points=\"-4,4 -4,-349.64 561.05,-349.64 561.05,4 -4,4\"/>\n",
"<!-- page_view -->\n",
"<g id=\"node1\" class=\"node\">\n",
"<title>page_view</title>\n",
"<ellipse fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" cx=\"48.19\" cy=\"-109.83\" rx=\"48.19\" ry=\"48.19\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"48.19\" y=\"-105.16\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">page_view</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- view_item_page -->\n",
"<g id=\"node2\" class=\"node\">\n",
"<title>view_item_page</title>\n",
"<ellipse fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" cx=\"232.88\" cy=\"-197.83\" rx=\"69.01\" ry=\"69.01\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"232.88\" y=\"-193.16\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">view_item_page</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- page_view&#45;&gt;view_item_page -->\n",
"<g id=\"edge1\" class=\"edge\">\n",
"<title>page_view&#45;&gt;view_item_page</title>\n",
"<path fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" d=\"M92.02,-130.47C112.32,-140.25 137.13,-152.2 160.18,-163.3\"/>\n",
"<polygon fill=\"black\" stroke=\"black\" points=\"158.39,-166.32 168.92,-167.51 161.43,-160.02 158.39,-166.32\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"130.12\" y=\"-157.78\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">1.00</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- view_item_page&#45;&gt;view_item_page -->\n",
"<g id=\"edge2\" class=\"edge\">\n",
"<title>view_item_page&#45;&gt;view_item_page</title>\n",
"<path fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" d=\"M214.74,-264.59C217.1,-276.51 223.14,-284.84 232.88,-284.84 239.27,-284.84 244.07,-281.26 247.28,-275.42\"/>\n",
"<polygon fill=\"black\" stroke=\"black\" points=\"250.57,-276.62 250.52,-266.02 243.95,-274.33 250.57,-276.62\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"232.88\" y=\"-288.79\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">0.19</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- hover_over_title -->\n",
"<g id=\"node3\" class=\"node\">\n",
"<title>hover_over_title</title>\n",
"<ellipse fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" cx=\"463.22\" cy=\"-275.83\" rx=\"69.81\" ry=\"69.81\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"463.22\" y=\"-271.16\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">hover_over_title</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- view_item_page&#45;&gt;hover_over_title -->\n",
"<g id=\"edge3\" class=\"edge\">\n",
"<title>view_item_page&#45;&gt;hover_over_title</title>\n",
"<path fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" d=\"M289.6,-237.16C299.36,-242.77 309.67,-247.94 319.89,-251.83 339.45,-259.28 361.4,-264.43 382.1,-267.98\"/>\n",
"<polygon fill=\"black\" stroke=\"black\" points=\"381.52,-271.43 391.95,-269.55 382.62,-264.52 381.52,-271.43\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"335.64\" y=\"-265.16\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">0.38</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- hover_over_paragraph -->\n",
"<g id=\"node4\" class=\"node\">\n",
"<title>hover_over_paragraph</title>\n",
"<ellipse fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" cx=\"463.22\" cy=\"-93.83\" rx=\"93.83\" ry=\"93.83\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"463.22\" y=\"-89.16\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">hover_over_paragraph</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- view_item_page&#45;&gt;hover_over_paragraph -->\n",
"<g id=\"edge4\" class=\"edge\">\n",
"<title>view_item_page&#45;&gt;hover_over_paragraph</title>\n",
"<path fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" d=\"M300.22,-180.71C317.22,-175.46 335.24,-169.12 351.39,-161.83 358.97,-158.41 366.67,-154.57 374.29,-150.49\"/>\n",
"<polygon fill=\"black\" stroke=\"black\" points=\"375.84,-153.63 382.92,-145.75 372.47,-147.5 375.84,-153.63\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"335.64\" y=\"-178.15\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">0.44</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- hover_over_title&#45;&gt;view_item_page -->\n",
"<g id=\"edge5\" class=\"edge\">\n",
"<title>hover_over_title&#45;&gt;view_item_page</title>\n",
"<path fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" d=\"M398.52,-248.36C383.21,-242.16 366.82,-235.87 351.39,-230.58 338.42,-226.15 324.5,-221.86 310.94,-217.93\"/>\n",
"<polygon fill=\"black\" stroke=\"black\" points=\"312.2,-214.65 301.62,-215.28 310.28,-221.39 312.2,-214.65\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"335.64\" y=\"-234.53\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">1.00</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- hover_over_paragraph&#45;&gt;page_view -->\n",
"<g id=\"edge6\" class=\"edge\">\n",
"<title>hover_over_paragraph&#45;&gt;page_view</title>\n",
"<path fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" d=\"M369.13,-95.76C310.26,-97.17 232.59,-99.41 163.87,-102.58 145.72,-103.42 125.98,-104.58 108.06,-105.73\"/>\n",
"<polygon fill=\"black\" stroke=\"black\" points=\"107.86,-102.24 98.1,-106.38 108.31,-109.22 107.86,-102.24\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"232.88\" y=\"-106.53\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">0.14</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- hover_over_paragraph&#45;&gt;view_item_page -->\n",
"<g id=\"edge7\" class=\"edge\">\n",
"<title>hover_over_paragraph&#45;&gt;view_item_page</title>\n",
"<path fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" d=\"M372.68,-119.15C354.84,-125.32 336.5,-132.51 319.89,-140.58 312.9,-143.98 305.81,-147.87 298.86,-151.98\"/>\n",
"<polygon fill=\"black\" stroke=\"black\" points=\"297.49,-148.71 290.78,-156.91 301.14,-154.69 297.49,-148.71\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"335.64\" y=\"-144.53\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">0.86</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"</g>\n",
"</svg>\n"
],
"text/plain": [
"<graphviz.graphs.Digraph at 0x7f6800f97110>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"[[0. 1. 0. 0. ]\n",
" [0. 0.1875 0.375 0.4375 ]\n",
" [0. 1. 0. 0. ]\n",
" [0.14285714 0.85714286 0. 0. ]]\n",
"d176d7c9-4027-4702-9e31-2a71395cdda0\n"
]
},
{
"data": {
"image/svg+xml": [
"<?xml version=\"1.0\" encoding=\"UTF-8\" standalone=\"no\"?>\n",
"<!DOCTYPE svg PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD SVG 1.1//EN\"\n",
" \"http://www.w3.org/Graphics/SVG/1.1/DTD/svg11.dtd\">\n",
"<!-- Generated by graphviz version 13.1.2 (0)\n",
" -->\n",
"<!-- Pages: 1 -->\n",
"<svg width=\"104pt\" height=\"104pt\"\n",
" viewBox=\"0.00 0.00 104.00 104.00\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\">\n",
"<g id=\"graph0\" class=\"graph\" transform=\"scale(1 1) rotate(0) translate(4 100.37)\">\n",
"<polygon fill=\"white\" stroke=\"none\" points=\"-4,4 -4,-100.37 100.37,-100.37 100.37,4 -4,4\"/>\n",
"<!-- page_view -->\n",
"<g id=\"node1\" class=\"node\">\n",
"<title>page_view</title>\n",
"<ellipse fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" cx=\"48.19\" cy=\"-48.19\" rx=\"48.19\" ry=\"48.19\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"48.19\" y=\"-43.51\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">page_view</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"</g>\n",
"</svg>\n"
],
"text/plain": [
"<graphviz.graphs.Digraph at 0x7f6800f97110>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"[[0.]]\n",
"f0317a5d-e424-44e9-b784-c8f7291ffe31\n"
]
},
{
"data": {
"image/svg+xml": [
"<?xml version=\"1.0\" encoding=\"UTF-8\" standalone=\"no\"?>\n",
"<!DOCTYPE svg PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD SVG 1.1//EN\"\n",
" \"http://www.w3.org/Graphics/SVG/1.1/DTD/svg11.dtd\">\n",
"<!-- Generated by graphviz version 13.1.2 (0)\n",
" -->\n",
"<!-- Pages: 1 -->\n",
"<svg width=\"310pt\" height=\"160pt\"\n",
" viewBox=\"0.00 0.00 310.00 160.00\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\">\n",
"<g id=\"graph0\" class=\"graph\" transform=\"scale(1 1) rotate(0) translate(4 156.44)\">\n",
"<polygon fill=\"white\" stroke=\"none\" points=\"-4,4 -4,-156.44 305.89,-156.44 305.89,4 -4,4\"/>\n",
"<!-- page_view -->\n",
"<g id=\"node1\" class=\"node\">\n",
"<title>page_view</title>\n",
"<ellipse fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" cx=\"48.19\" cy=\"-69.01\" rx=\"48.19\" ry=\"48.19\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"48.19\" y=\"-64.33\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">page_view</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- page_view&#45;&gt;page_view -->\n",
"<g id=\"edge1\" class=\"edge\">\n",
"<title>page_view&#45;&gt;page_view</title>\n",
"<path fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" d=\"M33.03,-115.09C34.09,-126.6 39.14,-135.19 48.19,-135.19 53.98,-135.19 58.13,-131.66 60.65,-126.1\"/>\n",
"<polygon fill=\"black\" stroke=\"black\" points=\"64.01,-127.11 62.98,-116.56 57.21,-125.45 64.01,-127.11\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"48.19\" y=\"-139.14\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">0.50</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- view_item_page -->\n",
"<g id=\"node2\" class=\"node\">\n",
"<title>view_item_page</title>\n",
"<ellipse fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" cx=\"232.88\" cy=\"-69.01\" rx=\"69.01\" ry=\"69.01\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"232.88\" y=\"-64.33\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">view_item_page</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"<!-- page_view&#45;&gt;view_item_page -->\n",
"<g id=\"edge2\" class=\"edge\">\n",
"<title>page_view&#45;&gt;view_item_page</title>\n",
"<path fill=\"none\" stroke=\"black\" d=\"M96.71,-69.01C113.69,-69.01 133.31,-69.01 152.25,-69.01\"/>\n",
"<polygon fill=\"black\" stroke=\"black\" points=\"152.1,-72.51 162.1,-69.01 152.1,-65.51 152.1,-72.51\"/>\n",
"<text xml:space=\"preserve\" text-anchor=\"middle\" x=\"130.12\" y=\"-72.96\" font-family=\"Times,serif\" font-size=\"14.00\">0.50</text>\n",
"</g>\n",
"</g>\n",
"</svg>\n"
],
"text/plain": [
"<graphviz.graphs.Digraph at 0x7f6800bf50f0>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"[[5.0e-001 5.0e-001]\n",
" [9.9e-324 1.5e-323]]\n"
]
}
],
"source": [
"def explore_session(session_id: str):\n",
" subset = df[df['sessionId'] == session_id]\n",
" print(session_id)\n",
" P, labels = build_transition_prob_matrix(subset)\n",
" g = render_graph(f\"session_{session_id}\", P, ls_index=labels, threshold=0.01, fmt=\"svg\", view=False)\n",
" display(g)\n",
" return P\n",
"for session in sessions:\n",
" print(explore_session(session))"
]
}
],
"metadata": {
"kernelspec": {
"display_name": "Python (PHANTOM)",
"language": "python",
"name": "phantom"
},
"language_info": {
"codemirror_mode": {
"name": "ipython",
"version": 3
},
"file_extension": ".py",
"mimetype": "text/x-python",
"name": "python",
"nbconvert_exporter": "python",
"pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
"version": "3.13.7"
}
},
"nbformat": 4,
"nbformat_minor": 5
}

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

View File

@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ import pandas as pd
from lib.separability import estimate_alpha, load_artifacts, score_session
# use relative import when in package context, fallback for standalone
try:
from sim.rl.behavior_loader.models import AgentBehaviorModel
@@ -51,7 +52,6 @@ def _states_to_events(states: list[str]) -> list[SimpleNamespace]:
)
return events
def contaminate_dataset(df: pd.DataFrame, on: str = "event_type",
contamination_rate: float = 0.1,
agent_data_dir: Path = None) -> pd.DataFrame:
@@ -78,6 +78,7 @@ def contaminate_dataset(df: pd.DataFrame, on: str = "event_type",
# generate synthetic trajectories
new_rows = []
alpha_estimates = []
for start_event in start_events:
# sample trajectory from agent model, using a state that contains the event type
mdp_states = model.mdp.get('states', []) if model.mdp else []

View File

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ from procesing.steps import (
)
def test_compute_demand(pipeline_context):
random.seed(42) # deterministic test
step = ComputeDemandStep(context=pipeline_context)
# Test with normal interaction data
@@ -26,6 +27,7 @@ def test_compute_demand(pipeline_context):
def test_compute_demand_skewed(pipeline_context):
random.seed(42) # deterministic test
step = ComputeDemandStep(context=pipeline_context)
# Test with normal interaction data

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,165 @@
import pytest
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from procesing.steps.session import (
TemporalFeatureStep,
BehavioralFeatureStep,
ProductFeatureStep,
UserAgentFeatureStep,
ExtractSessionFeaturesStep,
JoinLabelsStep,
ValidateDataStep,
)
# TemporalFeatureStep tests
def test_temporal_empty(pipeline_context):
result = TemporalFeatureStep(pipeline_context).transform(pd.DataFrame())
assert 'sessionId' in result.columns
assert result.empty
def test_temporal_basic(pipeline_context, session_interactions):
result = TemporalFeatureStep(pipeline_context).transform(session_interactions)
assert 'session_duration_sec' in result.columns
assert 'interaction_velocity' in result.columns
assert 'max_velocity_5min' in result.columns
assert result['total_interactions'].sum() == len(session_interactions)
def test_temporal_timeout(pipeline_context):
df = pd.DataFrame({
'sessionId': ['s1', 's1'],
'ts': ['2025-01-01T10:00:00Z', '2025-01-01T11:00:00Z'], # 1 hour gap
})
result = TemporalFeatureStep(pipeline_context, timeout_sec=900).transform(df)
assert result.iloc[0]['session_duration_sec'] == 0 # gap exceeds timeout
# BehavioralFeatureStep tests
def test_behavioral_empty(pipeline_context):
result = BehavioralFeatureStep(pipeline_context).transform(pd.DataFrame())
assert 'sessionId' in result.columns
def test_behavioral_counts(pipeline_context, session_interactions):
result = BehavioralFeatureStep(pipeline_context).transform(session_interactions)
assert 'page_views' in result.columns
assert 'item_views' in result.columns
assert 'hover_events' in result.columns
assert result['total_events'].sum() == len(session_interactions)
def test_behavioral_hover_prefix(pipeline_context):
df = pd.DataFrame({
'sessionId': ['s1', 's1'],
'eventName': ['hover_over_custom', 'hover_over_button'],
'page': ['/products', '/products'],
})
result = BehavioralFeatureStep(pipeline_context).transform(df)
assert result.iloc[0]['hover_events'] == 2
# ProductFeatureStep tests
def test_product_empty(pipeline_context):
result = ProductFeatureStep(pipeline_context).transform(pd.DataFrame())
assert 'sessionId' in result.columns
def test_product_features(pipeline_context, session_interactions):
result = ProductFeatureStep(pipeline_context).transform(session_interactions)
assert 'unique_products_viewed' in result.columns
assert 'price_range' in result.columns
assert result['unique_products_viewed'].sum() > 0
# UserAgentFeatureStep tests
def test_ua_empty(pipeline_context):
result = UserAgentFeatureStep(pipeline_context).transform(pd.DataFrame())
assert 'sessionId' in result.columns
def test_ua_headless_detection(pipeline_context):
df = pd.DataFrame({
'sessionId': ['s1', 's2'],
'userAgent': ['Mozilla/5.0 Chrome/120', 'HeadlessChrome/120'],
})
result = UserAgentFeatureStep(pipeline_context).transform(df)
assert 'is_headless' in result.columns
headless = dict(zip(result['sessionId'], result['is_headless']))
assert headless['s1'] == False
assert headless['s2'] == True
def test_ua_browser_family(pipeline_context):
df = pd.DataFrame({
'sessionId': ['s1', 's2', 's3'],
'userAgent': ['Mozilla/5.0 Firefox/120', 'Safari/605.1.15', 'Unknown'],
})
result = UserAgentFeatureStep(pipeline_context).transform(df)
browsers = dict(zip(result['sessionId'], result['browser_family']))
assert browsers['s1'] == 'Firefox'
assert browsers['s2'] == 'Safari'
assert browsers['s3'] == 'Other'
def test_ua_automation_detection(pipeline_context):
df = pd.DataFrame({
'sessionId': ['s1', 's2'],
'userAgent': ['Selenium WebDriver', 'Normal Chrome/120'],
})
result = UserAgentFeatureStep(pipeline_context).transform(df)
auto = dict(zip(result['sessionId'], result['is_automation']))
assert auto['s1'] == True
assert auto['s2'] == False
# ExtractSessionFeaturesStep tests
def test_extract_empty(pipeline_context):
result = ExtractSessionFeaturesStep(pipeline_context).transform(pd.DataFrame())
assert result.empty
def test_extract_merges_all(pipeline_context, session_interactions):
result = ExtractSessionFeaturesStep(pipeline_context).transform(session_interactions)
expected = ['session_duration_sec', 'total_events', 'unique_products_viewed', 'is_headless']
for col in expected:
assert col in result.columns
assert 'experimentId' in result.columns
# JoinLabelsStep tests
def test_join_labels_tuple_input(pipeline_context):
features = pd.DataFrame({'sessionId': ['s1'], 'experimentId': ['exp1'], 'total_events': [5]})
experiments = pd.DataFrame({'id': ['exp1'], 'xp_human_only': [True]})
result = JoinLabelsStep(pipeline_context).transform((features, experiments))
assert 'is_agent' in result.columns
assert result.iloc[0]['is_agent'] == False
def test_join_labels_empty_experiments(pipeline_context):
features = pd.DataFrame({'sessionId': ['s1'], 'experimentId': ['exp1']})
result = JoinLabelsStep(pipeline_context).transform((features, pd.DataFrame()))
assert pd.isna(result.iloc[0]['is_agent'])
# ValidateDataStep tests
def test_validate_empty(pipeline_context):
ValidateDataStep(pipeline_context).transform(pd.DataFrame())
report = pipeline_context.get_cached('validation_report')
assert report['status'] == 'empty'
def test_validate_missing_cols(pipeline_context):
df = pd.DataFrame({'sessionId': ['s1'], 'ts': ['2025-01-01']})
ValidateDataStep(pipeline_context).transform(df)
report = pipeline_context.get_cached('validation_report')
assert report['status'] == 'invalid'
assert 'eventName' in report['missing_cols']
def test_validate_valid(pipeline_context, session_interactions):
ValidateDataStep(pipeline_context).transform(session_interactions)
report = pipeline_context.get_cached('validation_report')
assert report['status'] == 'valid'
assert report['sessions'] > 0

View File

@@ -1,75 +0,0 @@
# MOS (Money Operating System)
Research-grade quote-control simulator for studying dynamic pricing and market making policies.
The system models pricing as a closed loop of **Quote → Arrival → Execution → Position**, enabling
controlled experimentation with demand models, inventory constraints, and reward shaping.
## Core Loop
1. **Quote** the policy posts prices (one-sided or two-sided depending on the mechanism).
2. **Arrival** a population model generates purchase opportunities or market orders.
3. **Execution** an execution model decides whether an arrival converts at the quoted price.
4. **Position** inventory/position limits censor fills and generate holding/shortage costs.
5. **Observation & Reward** censored fills and aggregate metrics are exposed to the agent, while
objectives turn metrics into a scalar reward.
Each stage is pluggable via light-weight protocols so you can swap in alternative mechanisms,
demand models, or objectives without rewriting the rest of the simulator.
## Package Layout
| Module | Purpose |
|-------------------|---------|
| `lab.outlet` | Core simulation engine, domain types, pricing mechanisms, objectives. |
| `lab.population` | Demand arrival models, execution probability models, competitor/market dynamics. |
| `lab.experiments` | Rollout utilities, baseline policies, and off-policy evaluation helpers. |
| `lab.config` | Convenience factories for preconfigured retail and market-making environments. |
## Preconfigured Scenarios
### Retail Dynamic Pricing
- Mechanism: posted prices with margin and delta constraints.
- Arrivals: browsing sessions with contamination support (scrapers).
- Execution: elasticity model with competitor cross-effects.
- Position: inventory tracking with holding and shortage costs.
- Market: reactive competitor that can trigger price wars.
- Objective: PnL minus volatility, holding cost, and lost opportunity penalties.
```python
from lab.config import make_retail_platform
from lab.experiments import rollout, fixed_price_policy
platform = make_retail_platform()
policy = fixed_price_policy(platform.instruments.refs)
result = rollout(platform, policy, n_steps=100)
print(result.total_pnl)
```
### Market Making
- Mechanism: two-sided quoting with bid/ask spreads.
- Arrivals: Hawkes order flow for clustered demand.
- Execution: AvellanedaStoikov style intensity model.
- Position: inventory risk limits and quadratic penalty objective.
- Market: geometric Brownian motion mid-price process.
- Objective: PnL plus spread capture minus inventory risk.
```python
from lab.config import make_market_making_platform
from lab.experiments import rollout
platform = make_market_making_platform()
mm_policy = lambda obs, t: (platform.instruments.refs, 1.0)
result = rollout(platform, mm_policy, n_steps=200, seed=42)
print(result.total_pnl)
```
## Extending the Simulator
- Implement `lab.outlet.protocols.Mechanism` or `ArrivalModel` to introduce new pricing
domains or demand processes.
- Compose objectives with `lab.outlet.objectives.factory.make_composite` to study alternate
reward formulations.
- Use `lab.experiments.compare_policies` to benchmark candidate policies across multiple
random seeds.
Comprehensive API documentation lives in `lab/docs` (build with `make html`).

View File

@@ -1,27 +0,0 @@
"""
Quote-Control Simulator: Research-grade platform for dynamic pricing and market making
The platform abstracts pricing as: Quote -> Arrival -> Execution -> Position
Supports multiple mechanisms:
- PostedPrice: retail dynamic pricing
- TwoSided: market making with bid-ask spreads
- Auction: reserve/shading for auction settings
Example usage:
from lab.config import make_retail_platform
from lab.experiments import rollout, fixed_price_policy
platform = make_retail_platform()
policy = fixed_price_policy(platform.instruments.refs)
result = rollout(platform, policy, n_steps=100)
print(f"Total PnL: {result.total_pnl:.2f}")
"""
from .config import make_retail_platform, make_market_making_platform, RetailConfig, MarketMakingConfig
from .outlet import Platform, PlatformConfig, Quote, Observation, StepResult
__all__ = [
'make_retail_platform', 'make_market_making_platform',
'RetailConfig', 'MarketMakingConfig',
'Platform', 'PlatformConfig', 'Quote', 'Observation', 'StepResult',
]

View File

@@ -1,6 +0,0 @@
"""
Case studies implementing specific research scenarios.
Available cases:
- thesis: PHANTOM thesis implementation with contaminated demand and DR-RL
"""

View File

@@ -1,25 +0,0 @@
"""
Thesis-specific implementation of the PHANTOM pricing defense framework.
This module implements the mathematical models from the thesis:
- ContaminatedArrivalModel: Mixture demand Q(p) = (1-α)d_H + αd_A (Eq 3)
- HybridExecutionModel: Divergent H/A behavior with separability (Section 2.1)
- RobustStackelbergObjective: Maximin objective with COI penalty (Eq 23)
- COIMetrics: Cost of Information tracking (Definition 1)
The platform configuration creates a research environment that directly
maps to the thesis mathematical framework for DR-RL experiments.
"""
from .arrivals import ContaminatedArrivalModel, ContaminatedArrivalConfig
from .execution import HybridExecutionModel, HybridExecutionConfig
from .objectives import RobustStackelbergObjective, COIObjective
from .platform import make_thesis_platform, ThesisConfig
from .metrics import COIMetrics, compute_coi, compute_separability
__all__ = [
'ContaminatedArrivalModel', 'ContaminatedArrivalConfig',
'HybridExecutionModel', 'HybridExecutionConfig',
'RobustStackelbergObjective', 'COIObjective',
'make_thesis_platform', 'ThesisConfig',
'COIMetrics', 'compute_coi', 'compute_separability',
]

View File

@@ -1,327 +0,0 @@
"""Contaminated arrivals using learned MDP kernels from behavior_loader.
Implements thesis demand model (Section 3.1):
- Aggregate demand Q(p) = (1-α)E[d(p;θ_H)] + αE[d(p;θ_A)] + ε_t (Eq 3)
- Demand proxy q̂_{t,i} = Σ_s Σ_k ω(a_{s,k}) · 1[i_{s,k} = i] (Eq 2)
- Per-session separability via KL divergence Δ_H, Δ_A (Eq 20-21)
The arrival model samples sessions from a mixture of human/agent behavioral profiles,
each session produces a trajectory τ_s and associated demand computation q(τ').
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from types import SimpleNamespace
from typing import Dict, List, Tuple, Optional
import numpy as np
from ...outlet.types import Opportunity, InstrumentSet, MarketState, HiddenState
from ...outlet.constants import Side, OpportunityType
from ...outlet.math_util import poisson_arrivals
try:
import sys
from pathlib import Path
sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).parent.parent.parent.parent))
from sim.rl.behavior_loader.models import (
BehaviorModel, AgentBehaviorModel, aggregate_event_transitions, kl_divergence
)
REAL_MDP = True
except ImportError:
REAL_MDP = False
kl_divergence = None
EVENT_PAGE = {"session_start": "/", "view_item_page": "/products", "learn_more_about_item": "/products/details",
"add_item_to_cart": "/cart", "purchase_complete": "/checkout", "session_end": "/checkout/success"}
EVENT_CANON = {"page_view": "session_start", "hover_over_paragraph": "view_item_page", "hover_over_title": "view_item_page",
"view_item_page": "view_item_page", "learn_more_about_item": "learn_more_about_item",
"add_item_to_cart": "add_item_to_cart", "checkout_start": "purchase_complete", "remove_item": "view_item_page"}
# action space partition A = A_nav A_cart A_filter A_dwell with signal weights ω (Table 1)
ACTION_WEIGHTS: Dict[str, float] = {
"add_item_to_cart": 0.8, "remove_item": 0.6, "checkout_start": 0.9, "purchase_complete": 1.0, # A_cart
"hover_over_title": 0.3, "hover_over_paragraph": 0.35, "hover_over_link": 0.25, # A_dwell
"page_view": 0.1, "session_start": 0.05, "view_item_page": 0.15, "learn_more_about_item": 0.2, # A_nav
"search": 0.05, "filter_date": 0.05, "filter_price": 0.08, "sort": 0.03, "session_end": 0.0, # A_filter
}
@dataclass
class SessionDemand:
"""Per-session demand computation per thesis formulation (Section 3.1).
Each session s ∈ S produces trajectory τ_s and demand proxy q̂. The platform uses
divergence signals Δ_H, Δ_A to estimate per-session contamination α̂(τ').
"""
session_id: str
q: Dict[int, float] # q̂_i demand proxy per product (Eq 2)
trajectory: List[Dict] # τ_s = (e_{s,1}, ..., e_{s,L_s})
delta_h: float = 0.0 # D_KL(T̂' || T̄_H) (Eq 20)
delta_a: float = 0.0 # D_KL(T̂' || T̄_A) (Eq 21)
alpha_hat: float = 0.0 # per-session contamination estimate
actor_class: str = "H" # ground truth Y_s ∈ {H, A}
theta: Dict[str, float] = field(default_factory=dict)
def compute_demand_proxy(events: List[Dict], n_products: int) -> Dict[int, float]:
"""Compute q̂_{t,i} = Σ_k ω(a_{s,k}) · 1[i_{s,k} = i] per Eq 2."""
q = {i: 0.0 for i in range(n_products)}
for e in events:
action, pidx = e.get("eventName", ""), e.get("product_idx")
if pidx is not None and 0 <= pidx < n_products:
q[pidx] += ACTION_WEIGHTS.get(action, 0.1)
return q
def compute_session_divergence(events: List[Dict], ref_h: Dict, ref_a: Dict) -> Tuple[float, float]:
"""Compute Δ_H, Δ_A divergence signals from trajectory (Eq 20-21)."""
if not events or kl_divergence is None:
return 0.0, 0.0
# build empirical transition kernel from trajectory
trans: Dict[str, Dict[str, int]] = {}
prev = "session_start"
for e in events:
curr = e.get("eventName", "session_end")
trans.setdefault(prev, {})
trans[prev][curr] = trans[prev].get(curr, 0) + 1
prev = curr
# normalize to probabilities
kernel = {}
for s, dests in trans.items():
total = sum(dests.values())
kernel[s] = {d: c / total for d, c in dests.items()} if total > 0 else {}
# aggregate to event-level and compute KL divergence against reference kernels
delta_h = sum(kl_divergence(kernel.get(s, {}), ref_h.get(s, {})) for s in kernel) / max(len(kernel), 1)
delta_a = sum(kl_divergence(kernel.get(s, {}), ref_a.get(s, {})) for s in kernel) / max(len(kernel), 1)
return delta_h, delta_a
def _canonicalize(raw: Dict) -> Dict:
out = {}
for src, dsts in raw.items():
sc = EVENT_CANON.get(src, src)
out.setdefault(sc, {})
for dst, p in dsts.items():
dc = EVENT_CANON.get(dst, dst)
out[sc][dc] = out[sc].get(dc, 0.0) + p
return {s: {k: v/sum(d.values()) for k, v in d.items()} for s, d in out.items() if sum(d.values()) > 0}
class BehavioralProfile:
"""Markov profile from learned MDP kernels (Section 3.5.2).
Transition kernel T̂_Y estimated via MLE: P̂(s'|s) = N(s,s') / Σ_k N(s,k) (Eq 19)
"""
STATES = ["session_start", "view_item_page", "learn_more_about_item", "add_item_to_cart", "purchase_complete", "session_end"]
# fallback kernels T̄_H, T̄_A when real data unavailable
FALLBACK_H = {"session_start": {"view_item_page": 0.85, "session_end": 0.15},
"view_item_page": {"learn_more_about_item": 0.4, "add_item_to_cart": 0.3, "view_item_page": 0.2, "session_end": 0.1},
"learn_more_about_item": {"add_item_to_cart": 0.5, "view_item_page": 0.3, "session_end": 0.2},
"add_item_to_cart": {"purchase_complete": 0.6, "view_item_page": 0.25, "session_end": 0.15},
"purchase_complete": {"session_end": 1.0}}
FALLBACK_A = {"session_start": {"view_item_page": 0.95, "session_end": 0.05},
"view_item_page": {"learn_more_about_item": 0.6, "view_item_page": 0.25, "add_item_to_cart": 0.1, "session_end": 0.05},
"learn_more_about_item": {"view_item_page": 0.5, "add_item_to_cart": 0.15, "learn_more_about_item": 0.3, "session_end": 0.05},
"add_item_to_cart": {"view_item_page": 0.4, "purchase_complete": 0.2, "session_end": 0.4},
"purchase_complete": {"session_end": 1.0}}
def __init__(self, actor: str, pprobs: np.ndarray, data_dir: str = ""):
self.actor, self.pprobs = actor, np.clip(pprobs, 0.0, 0.95)
self.trans = self._load(data_dir) # T̂_Y transition kernel
self._ensure_terminal()
self.dwell = {s: (1.2, 0.5) if actor == "agents" else (2.0, 1.2) for s in self.STATES}
def _load(self, data_dir: str) -> Dict:
if not REAL_MDP or not data_dir:
print("using fallback")
return dict(self.FALLBACK_A if self.actor == "agents" else self.FALLBACK_H)
try:
mdp = (AgentBehaviorModel if self.actor == "agents" else BehaviorModel)(data_dir).build_MDP()
raw = aggregate_event_transitions(mdp) if mdp.get("transitions") else {}
return _canonicalize(raw) if raw else dict(self.FALLBACK_A if self.actor == "agents" else self.FALLBACK_H)
except Exception:
print("using fallback")
return dict(self.FALLBACK_A if self.actor == "agents" else self.FALLBACK_H)
def _ensure_terminal(self):
self.trans.setdefault("purchase_complete", {})["session_end"] = self.trans.get("purchase_complete", {}).get("session_end", 1.0)
self.trans.setdefault("session_start", {"view_item_page": 0.7, "learn_more_about_item": 0.2, "session_end": 0.1})
def _tprobs(self, state: str, pidx: int) -> Dict[str, float]:
probs = dict(self.trans.get(state, {"session_end": 1.0}))
if state == "add_item_to_cart":
base = probs.get("purchase_complete", 0.0)
df = float(self.pprobs[pidx]) * (0.3 if self.actor == "agents" else 1.0)
adj = np.clip(base * 0.5 + df * 0.5, 0.0, 0.95)
rem = max(1e-6, 1.0 - adj)
other = sum(v for k, v in probs.items() if k != "purchase_complete")
probs = {k: (adj if k == "purchase_complete" else v * rem / max(other, 1e-6)) for k, v in probs.items()}
total = sum(probs.values())
return {k: v/total for k, v in probs.items()} if total > 0 else {"session_end": 1.0}
def sample(self, rng: np.random.Generator, sid: str, prices: np.ndarray, costs: np.ndarray) -> Tuple[List[Dict], List[SimpleNamespace]]:
events, fevts = [], []
state, t, pidx = "session_start", 0.0, int(rng.integers(0, len(prices)))
cost, cprice = float(costs[pidx]), max(float(prices[pidx]), float(costs[pidx]) * 1.05)
while state != "session_end" and len(events) < 40:
if state != "session_start":
row = {"session_id": sid, "actor": "agent" if self.actor == "agents" else "human",
"eventName": state, "product_idx": pidx, "productId": f"product-{pidx:04d}",
"price_offered": cprice, "price_paid": 0.0, "page": EVENT_PAGE.get(state, "/"),
"ts": t, "unit_cost": cost, "base_price": float(prices[pidx])}
if state == "purchase_complete":
row["price_paid"] = max(cprice * (1.0 + rng.normal(0.0, 0.015)), cost)
events.append(row)
fevts.append(SimpleNamespace(eventName=state, page=row["page"], productId=row["productId"], ts=t))
probs = self._tprobs(state, pidx)
state = rng.choice(list(probs.keys()), p=list(probs.values()))
sh, sc = self.dwell.get(state, (2.0, 1.0))
t += max(0.3, rng.gamma(shape=sh, scale=sc))
return events, fevts
@dataclass
class ContaminatedArrivalConfig:
base_rate: float = 20.0
alpha_contamination: float = 0.2
alpha_drift: float = 0.0
alpha_bounds: tuple[float, float] = (0.0, 0.5)
human_views_range: tuple[int, int] = (1, 4)
agent_views_range: tuple[int, int] = (3, 10)
agent_systematic: bool = True
use_real_behavior: bool = True
human_data_dir: str = ""
agent_data_dir: str = ""
class ContaminatedArrivalModel:
"""Mixture model Q(p) = (1-α)E[d(p;θ_H)] + αE[d(p;θ_A)] + ε_t (Eq 3).
Samples sessions from human/agent behavioral profiles, computes per-session
demand proxy q̂ and divergence signals Δ_H, Δ_A for separability.
"""
def __init__(self, cfg: ContaminatedArrivalConfig | None = None):
self.cfg = cfg or ContaminatedArrivalConfig()
self._alpha = self.cfg.alpha_contamination
self._scount = 0
self._profiles: Dict[str, BehavioralProfile] = {}
self._ref_kernels: Dict[str, Dict] = {} # T̄_H, T̄_A reference kernels
self._session_demands: List[SessionDemand] = [] # collected session demands
@property
def alpha(self) -> float:
return self._alpha
def _profile(self, actor: str, pprobs: np.ndarray) -> BehavioralProfile:
key = actor
if key not in self._profiles:
ddir = self.cfg.agent_data_dir if actor == "agents" else self.cfg.human_data_dir
if not ddir and self.cfg.use_real_behavior:
base = Path(__file__).parent.parent.parent.parent / "experiments"
ddir = str(base / ("agents/collected_data" if actor == "agents" else "collected_data"))
profile = BehavioralProfile(actor, pprobs, ddir if self.cfg.use_real_behavior else "")
self._profiles[key] = profile
self._ref_kernels[key] = profile.trans # cache T̄_Y for divergence
return self._profiles[key]
def get_ref_kernels(self) -> Tuple[Dict, Dict]:
"""Return reference transition kernels T̄_H, T̄_A for divergence computation."""
return (self._ref_kernels.get("humans", BehavioralProfile.FALLBACK_H),
self._ref_kernels.get("agents", BehavioralProfile.FALLBACK_A))
def get_session_demands(self) -> List[SessionDemand]:
"""Return collected session demands for downstream analysis."""
return self._session_demands
def sample(self, t: float, dt: float, instruments: InstrumentSet,
market: MarketState | None, hidden: HiddenState, rng: np.random.Generator) -> list[Opportunity]:
"""Sample arrivals as per Eq 3: mixture of human/agent demand distributions.
For each session s, computes:
- Trajectory τ_s from behavioral profile sampling
- Demand proxy q̂ via weighted action aggregation (Eq 2)
- Divergence signals Δ_H, Δ_A for separability (Eq 20-21)
- Per-session contamination estimate α̂(τ')
"""
cfg = self.cfg
if cfg.alpha_drift != 0:
self._alpha = np.clip(self._alpha + cfg.alpha_drift * rng.normal(), *cfg.alpha_bounds)
hidden.contamination = self._alpha
n_sess = poisson_arrivals(cfg.base_rate * hidden.true_demand_intensity, dt, rng)
prices, costs = instruments.refs, instruments.costs
margin = np.clip((prices - costs) / np.maximum(costs, 1e-3), -0.9, 2.0)
hprob, aprob = 0.08 * np.exp(-1.2 * margin), 0.05 * np.exp(-0.6 * margin)
ref_h, ref_a = self.get_ref_kernels()
opps = []
for _ in range(n_sess):
self._scount += 1
sid = f"s{self._scount:06d}"
is_agent = rng.random() < self._alpha
actor, probs = ("agents", aprob) if is_agent else ("humans", hprob)
profile = self._profile(actor, probs)
events, fevts = profile.sample(rng, sid, prices, costs)
# compute demand proxy q̂ per Eq 2
q = compute_demand_proxy(events, instruments.n)
# compute divergence signals Δ_H, Δ_A per Eq 20-21
delta_h, delta_a = compute_session_divergence(events, ref_h, ref_a)
# per-session contamination estimate α̂(τ') = σ(β(Δ_H - Δ_A))
alpha_hat = 1.0 / (1.0 + np.exp(-2.0 * (delta_h - delta_a))) if (delta_h + delta_a) > 0 else 0.5
theta = ({'price_sensitivity': rng.uniform(0.05, 0.2), 'base_conversion': 0.01, 'info_value': 1.0} if is_agent
else {'price_sensitivity': rng.uniform(1.5, 4.0), 'base_conversion': rng.uniform(0.2, 0.5), 'info_value': 0.0})
# store session demand for downstream analysis
self._session_demands.append(SessionDemand(
session_id=sid, q=q, trajectory=events, delta_h=delta_h, delta_a=delta_a,
alpha_hat=alpha_hat, actor_class="A" if is_agent else "H", theta=theta))
viewed = list({e["product_idx"] for e in events if "product_idx" in e})
if not viewed:
vr = cfg.agent_views_range if is_agent else cfg.human_views_range
viewed = list(rng.choice(instruments.n, size=min(rng.integers(*vr), instruments.n), replace=False))
for vi, iid in enumerate(viewed):
opps.append(Opportunity(
id=f"{sid}-{iid}", type=OpportunityType.SESSION, side=Side.BUY,
instrument_id=int(iid), size=1.0, t=t + rng.uniform(0, dt),
context={'session_id': sid, 'actor_class': 'AGENT' if is_agent else 'HUMAN', 'is_agent': is_agent,
'reconnaissance_intent': is_agent, 'view_index': vi, 'total_views': len(viewed),
'theta': theta, 'trajectory_events': fevts, 'mdp_trajectory': events,
'demand_proxy': q, 'alpha_hat': alpha_hat, 'delta_h': delta_h, 'delta_a': delta_a}))
return opps
@dataclass
class AdversarialArrivalConfig:
base_rate: float = 5.0
n_parallel_agents: int = 3
query_all_products: bool = True
class AdversarialArrivalModel:
"""Adversarial coordination (Theorem 1): as N->inf, COI->0."""
def __init__(self, cfg: AdversarialArrivalConfig | None = None):
self.cfg = cfg or AdversarialArrivalConfig()
self._qcount = 0
def sample(self, t: float, dt: float, instruments: InstrumentSet,
market: MarketState | None, hidden: HiddenState, rng: np.random.Generator) -> list[Opportunity]:
cfg, opps = self.cfg, []
for _ in range(poisson_arrivals(cfg.base_rate, dt, rng)):
self._qcount += 1
for ai in range(cfg.n_parallel_agents):
sid = f"adv{self._qcount:06d}-{ai}"
prods = np.arange(instruments.n) if cfg.query_all_products else rng.choice(instruments.n, size=1)
for iid in prods:
opps.append(Opportunity(
id=f"{sid}-{iid}", type=OpportunityType.SESSION, side=Side.BUY,
instrument_id=int(iid), size=1.0, t=t,
context={'session_id': sid, 'actor_class': 'AGENT', 'is_agent': True, 'adversarial': True,
'agent_index': ai, 'query_group': self._qcount,
'theta': {'price_sensitivity': 0.0, 'base_conversion': 0.0, 'info_value': 1.0}}))
return opps

View File

@@ -1,91 +0,0 @@
"""Execution models with divergent H/A behavior using ground truth labels."""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass
from typing import Any, Dict
import numpy as np
from ...outlet.types import Opportunity, Quote, InstrumentSet, MarketState
from ...outlet.math_util import sigmoid, safe_log, EPS
@dataclass
class HybridExecutionConfig:
human_base_prob: float = 0.3
human_elasticity: float = 2.5
agent_conversion: float = 0.01
cross_elasticity: float = 0.4
quality_weight: float = 0.2
use_separability: bool = False
class HybridExecutionModel:
"""Execution with divergent H/A behavior using ground truth labels."""
def __init__(self, cfg: HybridExecutionConfig | None = None):
self.cfg = cfg or HybridExecutionConfig()
def prob(self, opp: Opportunity, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
market: MarketState | None, rng: np.random.Generator) -> float:
cfg, idx = self.cfg, int(opp.instrument_id)
price, ref, cost = float(quote.prices[idx]), float(instruments.refs[idx]), float(instruments.costs[idx])
ctx = opp.context
theta = ctx.get('theta', {})
is_agent = ctx.get('is_agent', False)
if is_agent:
return cfg.agent_conversion * theta.get('base_conversion', 1.0)
# human logit discrete choice
sens = theta.get('price_sensitivity', cfg.human_elasticity)
base = theta.get('base_conversion', cfg.human_base_prob)
u_price = -sens * safe_log(price / (ref + EPS))
quality = instruments.instruments[idx].attrs.get('quality', 0.5)
u_quality = cfg.quality_weight * quality
u_comp = 0.0
if market and market.competitor_quotes is not None:
cp = market.competitor_quotes[idx]
if cp < price:
u_comp = -cfg.cross_elasticity * (price - cp) / ref
utility = safe_log(base / (1 - base + EPS)) + u_price + u_quality + u_comp
return float(sigmoid(utility))
def uncensor(self, fills: np.ndarray, instruments: InstrumentSet, context: dict[str, Any] | None = None) -> np.ndarray:
if context is None:
return fills / (self.cfg.human_base_prob + EPS)
agent_frac = context.get('contamination', 0.0)
return fills / (self.cfg.human_base_prob * (1 - agent_frac) + EPS)
@dataclass
class SeparableExecutionConfig:
human_funnel: Dict[str, float] = None
agent_funnel: Dict[str, float] = None
def __post_init__(self):
self.human_funnel = self.human_funnel or {'view_to_detail': 0.4, 'detail_to_cart': 0.3, 'cart_to_purchase': 0.6}
self.agent_funnel = self.agent_funnel or {'view_to_detail': 0.8, 'detail_to_cart': 0.05, 'cart_to_purchase': 0.1}
class SeparableExecutionModel:
"""Execution with Markov funnel kernels using ground truth labels."""
def __init__(self, cfg: SeparableExecutionConfig | None = None):
self.cfg = cfg or SeparableExecutionConfig()
def prob(self, opp: Opportunity, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
market: MarketState | None, rng: np.random.Generator) -> float:
is_agent = opp.context.get('is_agent', False)
probs = self.cfg.agent_funnel if is_agent else self.cfg.human_funnel
p = probs['view_to_detail'] * probs['detail_to_cart'] * probs['cart_to_purchase']
if not is_agent:
idx = int(opp.instrument_id)
price_ratio = quote.prices[idx] / (instruments.refs[idx] + EPS)
p *= np.exp(-0.5 * (price_ratio - 1.0))
return float(np.clip(p, 0, 1))
def uncensor(self, fills: np.ndarray, instruments: InstrumentSet, context: dict[str, Any] | None = None) -> np.ndarray:
h = self.cfg.human_funnel
exp_conv = h['view_to_detail'] * h['detail_to_cart'] * h['cart_to_purchase']
return fills / (exp_conv + EPS)

View File

@@ -1,102 +0,0 @@
"""Thesis metrics for COI and behavioral analysis using ground truth labels."""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from typing import Dict
import numpy as np
from ...outlet.types import StepLogs, StepMetrics, Quote, InstrumentSet
from ...outlet.math_util import safe_log, EPS
@dataclass
class COIMetrics:
coi_level: float = 0.0
coi_leakage: float = 0.0
realized_premium: float = 0.0
theoretical_max: float = 0.0
erosion_rate: float = 0.0
def to_dict(self) -> dict[str, float]:
return {k: getattr(self, k) for k in ['coi_level', 'coi_leakage', 'realized_premium', 'theoretical_max', 'erosion_rate']}
def compute_coi(quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet, metrics: StepMetrics, contamination: float) -> COIMetrics:
prices, costs, refs = quote.prices, instruments.costs, instruments.refs
margins = prices - costs
coi_level = float(np.mean(margins))
theoretical_max = float(np.mean(costs))
realized_premium = (metrics.revenue - metrics.cost) / metrics.units_traded if metrics.units_traded > 0 else 0.0
price_var = float(np.var(prices / refs))
coi_leakage = contamination * (coi_level + price_var)
erosion_rate = contamination * coi_level / (theoretical_max + EPS)
return COIMetrics(coi_level=coi_level, coi_leakage=coi_leakage, realized_premium=realized_premium,
theoretical_max=theoretical_max, erosion_rate=erosion_rate)
@dataclass
class SeparabilityMetrics:
classification_accuracy: float = 0.0
estimated_alpha: float = 0.0
n_human_sessions: int = 0
n_agent_sessions: int = 0
def compute_separability(logs: StepLogs, true_alpha: float) -> SeparabilityMetrics:
"""Compute separability using ground truth labels only."""
if logs.events is None or len(logs.events) == 0:
return SeparabilityMetrics(estimated_alpha=true_alpha)
sessions: Dict[str, bool] = {}
for evt in logs.events:
sid = evt.metadata.get('session_id', evt.opportunity_id)
if sid not in sessions:
sessions[sid] = evt.metadata.get('is_agent', False)
n_agent = sum(1 for is_agent in sessions.values() if is_agent)
n_human = len(sessions) - n_agent
est_alpha = n_agent / len(sessions) if sessions else 0.0
return SeparabilityMetrics(
classification_accuracy=1.0, # ground truth is always correct
estimated_alpha=est_alpha,
n_human_sessions=n_human,
n_agent_sessions=n_agent)
@dataclass
class RevenueAttribution:
total_revenue: float = 0.0
human_revenue: float = 0.0
agent_revenue: float = 0.0
human_conversion: float = 0.0
agent_conversion: float = 0.0
def compute_attribution(logs: StepLogs, metrics: StepMetrics) -> RevenueAttribution:
if logs.executions is None:
return RevenueAttribution(total_revenue=metrics.revenue)
human_rev, agent_rev, human_cnt, agent_cnt = 0.0, 0.0, 0, 0
for exe in logs.executions:
if exe.propensity < 0.05:
agent_rev += exe.price * exe.size_filled
agent_cnt += 1
else:
human_rev += exe.price * exe.size_filled
human_cnt += 1
total_exp = logs.aggregates.get('n_arrivals', 1)
return RevenueAttribution(
total_revenue=metrics.revenue, human_revenue=human_rev, agent_revenue=agent_rev,
human_conversion=human_cnt / (total_exp * 0.8 + EPS),
agent_conversion=agent_cnt / (total_exp * 0.2 + EPS))
def order_statistic_erosion(n_agents: int, price_variance: float) -> float:
"""COI erosion from Theorem 1: as N->inf, min(p_1..p_N)->p_min."""
if n_agents <= 1:
return 0.0
sigma, log_n = np.sqrt(price_variance), safe_log(n_agents)
if log_n < 1:
return 0.0
shift = sigma * (np.sqrt(2 * log_n) - (safe_log(log_n) + safe_log(4 * np.pi)) / (2 * np.sqrt(2 * log_n) + EPS))
return float(min(shift / (sigma * 2 + EPS), 1.0))

View File

@@ -1,228 +0,0 @@
"""
Thesis-specific objectives implementing robust pricing under contamination.
Implements the Maximin objective from Eq 23:
π* = argmax_π min_{Q ∈ U_ε} E_d~Q[R(p,d) - λ·COI(p)]
Key components:
- COIObjective: Cost of Information penalty (Definition 1)
- RobustStackelbergObjective: Full maximin objective with Wasserstein robustness
- UXPenalty: User experience degradation from volatility
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass
import numpy as np
from ...outlet.objectives.base import BaseObjective, CompositeObjective
from ...outlet.types import Quote, InstrumentSet, StepMetrics, HiddenState, Observation
from ...outlet.math_util import safe_log, EPS
class COIObjective(BaseObjective):
"""Cost of Information penalty from Definition 1.
COI(π) = E[P] - p_min
The expected price premium over marginal cost represents the platform's
pricing power. Agent reconnaissance erodes this by revealing price
distribution to buyers.
We implement COI_leakage = f(τ') · InfoValue(p, τ')
where f(τ') is the estimated agent probability.
"""
def __init__(self, lambda_coi: float = 1.0, use_revelation: bool = False):
"""
Args:
lambda_coi: Weight on COI penalty
use_revelation: If True, use -log(π(p)) as info value (penalizes rare prices)
"""
self.lambda_coi = lambda_coi
self.use_revelation = use_revelation
def reward(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> float:
# COI_leakage = α · InfoValue
alpha = hidden.contamination
if self.use_revelation:
# revelation surrogate: rare prices reveal more about policy
# InfoValue = -log(π(p|τ')) ≈ surprise of the price
price_surprise = np.mean(np.abs(quote.prices - instruments.refs) / (instruments.refs + EPS))
info_value = price_surprise
else:
# query-tax surrogate: each agent query incurs constant leakage
info_value = 1.0
leakage = alpha * info_value
return -self.lambda_coi * leakage
def breakdown(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> dict[str, float]:
alpha = hidden.contamination
margins = (quote.prices - instruments.costs) / (instruments.costs + EPS)
return {
'coi_penalty': self.reward(quote, instruments, metrics, hidden, obs),
'contamination': alpha,
'avg_margin': float(np.mean(margins)),
}
@dataclass
class RobustObjectiveConfig:
"""Configuration for robust Stackelberg objective.
Attributes:
lambda_coi: Weight on COI penalty (λ in Eq 23)
lambda_ux: Weight on UX penalty
lambda_volatility: Weight on price volatility penalty
gamma_inventory: Inventory risk aversion
wasserstein_epsilon: Ambiguity set radius (ε in Eq 21)
"""
lambda_coi: float = 0.5
lambda_ux: float = 0.1
lambda_volatility: float = 0.2
gamma_inventory: float = 0.1
wasserstein_epsilon: float = 0.1
class RobustStackelbergObjective(BaseObjective):
"""Implements the Maximin Objective from thesis Eq 23.
π* = argmax_π min_{Q ∈ U_ε(P̂_N)} E_d~Q[R(p,d) - λ·COI(p)]
The objective balances:
1. Revenue R(p,d) from human purchases
2. COI penalty for information leakage to agents
3. UX penalty for price volatility
4. Inventory/holding costs
The min over ambiguity set U_ε is approximated by penalizing
high contamination scenarios more heavily.
"""
def __init__(self, cfg: RobustObjectiveConfig | None = None):
self.cfg = cfg or RobustObjectiveConfig()
def reward(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> float:
cfg = self.cfg
# 1. base revenue (R(p,d))
revenue = metrics.revenue
cost = metrics.cost
profit = revenue - cost
# 2. COI penalty: scales with contamination and margin extraction
# high margins + high contamination = high leakage
alpha = hidden.contamination
margins = quote.prices - instruments.costs
avg_margin = float(np.mean(margins))
coi_penalty = cfg.lambda_coi * avg_margin * alpha
# 3. UX penalty: price volatility harms legitimate users
volatility_penalty = cfg.lambda_volatility * metrics.volatility
# 4. inventory/position cost
position_penalty = cfg.gamma_inventory * metrics.position_cost
# 5. lost opportunity cost (stockouts)
lost_penalty = 0.1 * metrics.lost_opportunity
# robust adjustment: under adversarial distribution Q,
# expect lower revenue and higher costs
# approximate via worst-case contamination within ε-ball
worst_case_alpha = min(alpha + cfg.wasserstein_epsilon, 1.0)
robustness_penalty = cfg.wasserstein_epsilon * avg_margin * worst_case_alpha
total = profit - coi_penalty - volatility_penalty - position_penalty - lost_penalty - robustness_penalty
return total
def breakdown(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> dict[str, float]:
cfg = self.cfg
alpha = hidden.contamination
margins = quote.prices - instruments.costs
avg_margin = float(np.mean(margins))
return {
'revenue': metrics.revenue,
'cost': metrics.cost,
'profit': metrics.revenue - metrics.cost,
'coi_penalty': -cfg.lambda_coi * avg_margin * alpha,
'volatility_penalty': -cfg.lambda_volatility * metrics.volatility,
'position_penalty': -cfg.gamma_inventory * metrics.position_cost,
'lost_penalty': -0.1 * metrics.lost_opportunity,
'robustness_penalty': -cfg.wasserstein_epsilon * avg_margin * min(alpha + cfg.wasserstein_epsilon, 1.0),
'contamination': alpha,
'avg_margin_pct': avg_margin / (float(np.mean(instruments.costs)) + EPS),
}
class UXPenalty(BaseObjective):
"""User experience penalty from price volatility.
High price volatility degrades UX for legitimate human users.
This term ensures the defense doesn't harm real customers while
protecting against agent reconnaissance.
"""
def __init__(self, scale: float = 1.0, max_acceptable_volatility: float = 0.1):
self.scale = scale
self.max_vol = max_acceptable_volatility
def reward(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> float:
# penalty increases quadratically beyond threshold
excess_vol = max(0, metrics.volatility - self.max_vol)
return -self.scale * (excess_vol ** 2)
def breakdown(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> dict[str, float]:
return {
'ux_penalty': self.reward(quote, instruments, metrics, hidden, obs),
'volatility': metrics.volatility,
}
class AdaptiveObjective(BaseObjective):
"""Objective that adapts weights based on estimated contamination.
When contamination is low, focus on revenue maximization.
When contamination is high, increase COI defense weight.
"""
def __init__(self, base_lambda_coi: float = 0.3, max_lambda_coi: float = 2.0,
adaptation_rate: float = 2.0):
self.base_lambda = base_lambda_coi
self.max_lambda = max_lambda_coi
self.rate = adaptation_rate
def _adaptive_lambda(self, alpha: float) -> float:
# sigmoid scaling: λ(α) = base + (max-base) * sigmoid(rate*(α-0.5))
from ...outlet.math_util import sigmoid
scale = sigmoid(self.rate * (alpha - 0.3))
return self.base_lambda + (self.max_lambda - self.base_lambda) * scale
def reward(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> float:
alpha = hidden.contamination
lambda_coi = self._adaptive_lambda(alpha)
profit = metrics.revenue - metrics.cost
margins = quote.prices - instruments.costs
coi_penalty = lambda_coi * float(np.mean(margins)) * alpha
return profit - coi_penalty
def breakdown(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> dict[str, float]:
alpha = hidden.contamination
return {
'profit': metrics.revenue - metrics.cost,
'adaptive_lambda': self._adaptive_lambda(alpha),
'contamination': alpha,
}
def make_thesis_objective(lambda_coi: float = 0.5, lambda_ux: float = 0.1,
lambda_vol: float = 0.2) -> CompositeObjective:
"""Create the standard thesis objective composition."""
return CompositeObjective([
(RobustStackelbergObjective(RobustObjectiveConfig(
lambda_coi=lambda_coi, lambda_ux=lambda_ux, lambda_volatility=lambda_vol)), 1.0),
])

View File

@@ -1,176 +0,0 @@
"""Thesis platform with real MDP behavioral models and separability scoring."""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass
from pathlib import Path
import numpy as np
from ...outlet import (Platform, PlatformConfig, PositionModel, PositionConfig,
PostedPriceMechanism, make_instruments, InstrumentType, LogLevel)
from ...outlet.mechanisms.posted_price import PostedPriceConfig
from ...outlet.observation import DefaultObservationBuilder, ObservationConfig
from .arrivals import ContaminatedArrivalModel, ContaminatedArrivalConfig
from .execution import HybridExecutionModel, HybridExecutionConfig
from .objectives import RobustStackelbergObjective, RobustObjectiveConfig
@dataclass
class ThesisConfig:
# instruments
n_instruments: int = 10
cost_range: tuple[float, float] = (5.0, 50.0)
margin_range: tuple[float, float] = (0.2, 0.5)
# contamination (Section 3.1)
alpha_contamination: float = 0.2
alpha_drift: float = 0.0
alpha_bounds: tuple[float, float] = (0.0, 0.5)
# objectives (Eq 23)
lambda_coi: float = 0.5
lambda_ux: float = 0.1
lambda_volatility: float = 0.2
wasserstein_epsilon: float = 0.1
# arrivals
sessions_per_step: int = 30
human_views_range: tuple[int, int] = (1, 4)
agent_views_range: tuple[int, int] = (3, 10)
# inventory
initial_inventory: float = 100.0
holding_cost_rate: float = 0.002
# real behavioral models (from sim.rl)
use_real_behavior: bool = True
use_separability: bool = False # disabled until classifier trained
human_data_dir: str = "/home/velocitatem/Documents/Projects/PHANTOM/experiments/collected_data"
agent_data_dir: str = "/home/velocitatem/Documents/Projects/PHANTOM/experiments/agents/collected_data"
# simulation
max_steps: int = 500
seed: int | None = 24
log_level: LogLevel = LogLevel.AGG_ONLY
def _resolve_data_dirs(cfg: ThesisConfig) -> tuple[str, str]:
"""Resolve data directories for behavioral models."""
base = Path(__file__).parent.parent.parent.parent / "experiments"
human = cfg.human_data_dir or str(base / "collected_data")
agent = cfg.agent_data_dir or str(base / "agents/collected_data")
return human, agent
def make_thesis_platform(cfg: ThesisConfig | None = None) -> Platform:
"""Create platform with real MDP behavioral models.
Implements:
- Contaminated arrivals using learned MDP kernels from behavior_loader
- Hybrid execution with real separability scoring from lib.separability
- Robust Stackelberg objective (Eq 23)
"""
cfg = cfg or ThesisConfig()
rng = np.random.default_rng(cfg.seed)
human_dir, agent_dir = _resolve_data_dirs(cfg)
instruments = make_instruments(
n=cfg.n_instruments, cost_range=cfg.cost_range, margin_range=cfg.margin_range,
inst_type=InstrumentType.SKU, rng=rng)
instruments.position = np.full(cfg.n_instruments, cfg.initial_inventory)
arrival = ContaminatedArrivalModel(ContaminatedArrivalConfig(
base_rate=cfg.sessions_per_step,
alpha_contamination=cfg.alpha_contamination,
alpha_drift=cfg.alpha_drift,
alpha_bounds=cfg.alpha_bounds,
human_views_range=cfg.human_views_range,
agent_views_range=cfg.agent_views_range,
use_real_behavior=cfg.use_real_behavior,
human_data_dir=human_dir,
agent_data_dir=agent_dir,
))
execution = HybridExecutionModel(HybridExecutionConfig(
use_separability=cfg.use_separability,
))
mechanism = PostedPriceMechanism(PostedPriceConfig(max_delta_pct=0.15, min_margin_pct=0.05))
position = PositionModel(PositionConfig(initial_position=cfg.initial_inventory, holding_cost_rate=cfg.holding_cost_rate))
market = None
objective = RobustStackelbergObjective(RobustObjectiveConfig(
lambda_coi=cfg.lambda_coi, lambda_ux=cfg.lambda_ux,
lambda_volatility=cfg.lambda_volatility, wasserstein_epsilon=cfg.wasserstein_epsilon))
obs_builder = DefaultObservationBuilder(ObservationConfig(mask_true_demand=True))
platform_cfg = PlatformConfig(n_instruments=cfg.n_instruments, max_steps=cfg.max_steps,
seed=cfg.seed, log_level=cfg.log_level, mask_demand=True)
return Platform(instruments=instruments, mechanism=mechanism, arrival=arrival, execution=execution,
position=position, market=market, obs_builder=obs_builder, objective=objective, cfg=platform_cfg)
@dataclass
class AblationConfig(ThesisConfig):
disable_coi_penalty: bool = False
disable_ux_penalty: bool = False
disable_contamination: bool = False
disable_real_behavior: bool = False
def make_ablation_platform(cfg: AblationConfig) -> Platform:
if cfg.disable_coi_penalty:
cfg.lambda_coi = 0.0
if cfg.disable_ux_penalty:
cfg.lambda_ux = 0.0
if cfg.disable_contamination:
cfg.alpha_contamination = 0.0
if cfg.disable_real_behavior:
cfg.use_real_behavior = False
cfg.use_separability = False
return make_thesis_platform(cfg)
def sweep_contamination(alpha_values: list[float], base_cfg: ThesisConfig | None = None,
n_steps: int = 100, seed: int = 42) -> dict[float, dict]:
"""Test performance across contamination levels (Theorem 1 validation)."""
from ...experiments.eval import rollout, fixed_price_policy
results = {}
base_cfg = base_cfg or ThesisConfig()
for alpha in alpha_values:
cfg = ThesisConfig(**{k: v for k, v in base_cfg.__dict__.items() if k != 'alpha_contamination'},
alpha_contamination=alpha)
platform = make_thesis_platform(cfg)
policy = fixed_price_policy(platform.instruments.refs)
result = rollout(platform, policy, n_steps, seed=seed)
results[alpha] = {
'total_reward': result.total_reward,
'total_pnl': result.total_pnl,
'avg_conversion': result.avg_conversion,
'final_contamination': platform._hidden.contamination,
}
return results
def sweep_behavior_modes(base_cfg: ThesisConfig | None = None, n_steps: int = 100, seed: int = 42) -> dict[str, dict]:
"""Compare real vs synthetic behavioral models."""
from ...experiments.eval import rollout, fixed_price_policy
base_cfg = base_cfg or ThesisConfig()
modes = {
'real_mdp': ThesisConfig(**{**base_cfg.__dict__, 'use_real_behavior': True, 'use_separability': True}),
'synthetic': ThesisConfig(**{**base_cfg.__dict__, 'use_real_behavior': False, 'use_separability': False}),
'real_mdp_no_sep': ThesisConfig(**{**base_cfg.__dict__, 'use_real_behavior': True, 'use_separability': False}),
}
results = {}
for name, cfg in modes.items():
platform = make_thesis_platform(cfg)
policy = fixed_price_policy(platform.instruments.refs)
result = rollout(platform, policy, n_steps, seed=seed)
results[name] = {
'total_reward': result.total_reward,
'total_pnl': result.total_pnl,
'avg_conversion': result.avg_conversion,
}
return results

View File

@@ -1,136 +0,0 @@
#!/usr/bin/env python
"""Thesis simulation experiments with real MDP behavioral models."""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
from pathlib import Path
if __name__ == '__main__':
sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).parent.parent.parent.parent))
from lab.case.thesis.platform import make_thesis_platform, ThesisConfig
from lab.case.thesis.metrics import compute_coi, compute_separability
from lab.experiments.eval import compare_policies
import numpy as np
def demo_basic_simulation():
print("=" * 70)
print("THESIS SIMULATION: Contaminated Dynamic Pricing (Real MDP Kernels)")
print("=" * 70)
cfg = ThesisConfig(n_instruments=5, alpha_contamination=0.3, lambda_coi=0.5,
max_steps=100, seed=42, use_real_behavior=True)
platform = make_thesis_platform(cfg)
print(f"\nInstruments: {platform.instruments.n}")
print(f"Reference prices: {platform.instruments.refs.round(2)}")
print(f"Costs: {platform.instruments.costs.round(2)}")
print(f"Initial contamination alpha={cfg.alpha_contamination}")
print(f"Using real behavior: {cfg.use_real_behavior}")
result = platform.reset(seed=42)
total_reward, coi_history = 0, []
print(f"\n{'Step':>5} {'Reward':>10} {'PnL':>10} {'COI':>8} {'alpha':>6} {'Conv':>8}")
print("-" * 55)
for t in range(cfg.max_steps):
action = platform.instruments.refs * np.random.uniform(0.95, 1.15, size=platform.instruments.n)
result = platform.step(action)
total_reward += result.reward
coi = compute_coi(platform._quote, platform.instruments, result.metrics, result.hidden.contamination)
coi_history.append(coi.coi_level)
if t % 20 == 0:
print(f"{t:5d} {result.reward:10.2f} {result.metrics.pnl:10.2f} "
f"{coi.coi_level:8.2f} {result.hidden.contamination:6.2f} {result.metrics.conversion:8.3f}")
print("-" * 55)
print(f"Total Reward: {total_reward:.2f}")
print(f"Average COI: {np.mean(coi_history):.2f}")
print(f"COI Trend: {coi_history[-1] - coi_history[0]:+.2f}")
def demo_contamination_sweep():
print("\n" + "=" * 70)
print("EXPERIMENT: COI Erosion vs Contamination (Theorem 1)")
print("=" * 70)
from lab.case.thesis.platform import sweep_contamination
trials = 20
alpha_values = [i/trials for i in range(trials)]
results = sweep_contamination(alpha_values, n_steps=100, seed=42)
print(f"\n{'alpha':>6} {'Reward':>12} {'PnL':>12} {'Conv':>10}")
print("-" * 45)
for alpha, m in sorted(results.items()):
print(f"{alpha:6.2f} {m['total_reward']:12.2f} {m['total_pnl']:12.2f} {m['avg_conversion']:10.3f}")
rewards = [results[a]['total_reward'] for a in sorted(results.keys())]
dataset = np.array([[a, r] for a, r in zip(alpha_values, rewards)])
trend = np.corrcoef(dataset[:, 0], dataset[:, 1])[0, 1]
print(f"Trend (alpha~reward correlation): {trend:.3f}")
def demo_policy_comparison():
print("\n" + "=" * 70)
print("EXPERIMENT: Policy Comparison under Contamination")
print("=" * 70)
cfg = ThesisConfig(n_instruments=5, alpha_contamination=0.25, max_steps=100, seed=42)
platform = make_thesis_platform(cfg)
def fixed_policy(obs, t): return platform.instruments.refs.copy(), 1.0
def aggressive_policy(obs, t): return platform.instruments.refs * 1.3, 1.0
def conservative_policy(obs, t): return platform.instruments.refs * 1.05, 1.0
def adaptive_policy(obs, t):
fills = obs[platform.instruments.n:2*platform.instruments.n]
exp = obs[2*platform.instruments.n:3*platform.instruments.n]
conv = np.sum(fills) / (np.sum(exp) + 1e-8)
return platform.instruments.refs * (1.0 + 0.2 * conv), 1.0
policies = {'fixed': fixed_policy, 'aggressive': aggressive_policy,
'conservative': conservative_policy, 'adaptive': adaptive_policy}
results = compare_policies(platform, policies, n_steps=100, n_runs=3, seed=42)
print(f"\n{'Policy':>15} {'Reward':>12} {'Std':>10} {'PnL':>12} {'Conv':>10}")
print("-" * 65)
for name, r in sorted(results.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1]['mean_reward']):
print(f"{name:>15} {r['mean_reward']:12.2f} {r['std_reward']:10.2f} "
f"{r['mean_pnl']:12.2f} {r['mean_conversion']:10.3f}")
def demo_session_analysis():
"""Analyze session-level behavior from MDP trajectories."""
print("\n" + "=" * 70)
print("EXPERIMENT: Session Analysis (Ground Truth)")
print("=" * 70)
from lab.outlet.constants import LogLevel
cfg = ThesisConfig(n_instruments=5, alpha_contamination=0.3, max_steps=50,
log_level=LogLevel.FULL, seed=42, use_real_behavior=True)
platform = make_thesis_platform(cfg)
result = platform.reset(seed=42)
human_sessions, agent_sessions = 0, 0
for t in range(cfg.max_steps):
action = platform.instruments.refs * 1.1
result = platform.step(action)
sep = compute_separability(result.logs, result.hidden.contamination)
human_sessions += sep.n_human_sessions
agent_sessions += sep.n_agent_sessions
total = human_sessions + agent_sessions
print(f"\nTotal sessions: {total}")
print(f"Human sessions: {human_sessions} ({100*human_sessions/total:.1f}%)")
print(f"Agent sessions: {agent_sessions} ({100*agent_sessions/total:.1f}%)")
print(f"True contamination: {cfg.alpha_contamination:.1%}")
print(f"Observed contamination: {agent_sessions/total:.1%}")
if __name__ == '__main__':
demo_basic_simulation()
demo_contamination_sweep()
# demo_policy_comparison()
# demo_session_analysis()

View File

@@ -1,156 +0,0 @@
"""
Configuration and factory functions for creating pre-configured platforms.
This module provides:
- RetailConfig, MarketMakingConfig: Configuration dataclasses
- make_retail_platform: Factory for retail dynamic pricing scenarios
- make_market_making_platform: Factory for market making scenarios
Example:
>>> from lab.config import make_retail_platform
>>> platform = make_retail_platform(RetailConfig(n_instruments=5))
>>> result = platform.reset(seed=42)
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass
import numpy as np
from .outlet import (Platform, PlatformConfig, PositionModel, PositionConfig,
PostedPriceMechanism, TwoSidedMechanism, make_instruments,
InstrumentType, LogLevel)
from .outlet.mechanisms.posted_price import PostedPriceConfig
from .outlet.mechanisms.two_sided import TwoSidedConfig
from .population import (SessionArrivalModel, PoissonArrivalModel, HawkesArrivalModel,
ElasticityExecutionModel, IntensityExecutionModel,
ReactiveCompetitorModel, GBMMarketModel)
from .population.arrivals import SessionArrivalConfig, PoissonArrivalConfig, HawkesArrivalConfig
from .population.execution import ElasticityConfig, IntensityConfig
from .population.competitors import ReactiveCompetitorConfig, GBMMarketConfig
from .outlet.objectives.factory import retail_objective, market_making_objective
@dataclass
class RetailConfig:
"""Configuration for retail dynamic pricing scenario.
Attributes:
n_instruments: Number of products to price
cost_range: (min, max) for random product costs
margin_range: (min, max) for random initial margins
initial_inventory: Starting inventory per product
holding_cost_rate: Cost per unit per step for holding
sessions_per_step: Number of browsing sessions per step
contamination: Fraction of sessions that are scrapers
max_steps: Maximum episode length
seed: Random seed for reproducibility
"""
n_instruments: int = 10
cost_range: tuple[float, float] = (5.0, 50.0)
margin_range: tuple[float, float] = (0.2, 0.5)
initial_inventory: float = 100.0
holding_cost_rate: float = 0.002
sessions_per_step: int = 30
contamination: float = 0.1
max_steps: int = 500
seed: int | None = None
def make_retail_platform(cfg: RetailConfig | None = None) -> Platform:
"""Create a pre-configured retail dynamic pricing platform.
Components:
- Mechanism: PostedPriceMechanism (single price per product)
- Arrivals: SessionArrivalModel (browsing sessions with views)
- Execution: ElasticityExecutionModel (price sensitivity)
- Market: ReactiveCompetitorModel (can trigger price wars)
- Objective: PnL - holding_cost - volatility - lost_opportunity
Args:
cfg: Configuration (uses defaults if None)
Returns:
Configured Platform instance
"""
cfg = cfg or RetailConfig()
rng = np.random.default_rng(cfg.seed)
instruments = make_instruments(cfg.n_instruments, cfg.cost_range, cfg.margin_range,
InstrumentType.SKU, rng)
instruments.position = np.full(cfg.n_instruments, cfg.initial_inventory)
mechanism = PostedPriceMechanism(PostedPriceConfig())
arrival = SessionArrivalModel(SessionArrivalConfig(
sessions_per_step=cfg.sessions_per_step, contamination=cfg.contamination))
execution = ElasticityExecutionModel(ElasticityConfig())
position = PositionModel(PositionConfig(
initial_position=cfg.initial_inventory,
holding_cost_rate=cfg.holding_cost_rate))
market = ReactiveCompetitorModel(ReactiveCompetitorConfig(), refs=instruments.refs)
objective = retail_objective()
return Platform(
instruments=instruments, mechanism=mechanism, arrival=arrival,
execution=execution, position=position, market=market, objective=objective,
cfg=PlatformConfig(n_instruments=cfg.n_instruments, max_steps=cfg.max_steps,
seed=cfg.seed, log_level=LogLevel.AGG_ONLY)
)
@dataclass
class MarketMakingConfig:
"""Configuration for market making scenario.
Attributes:
n_instruments: Number of assets to quote
initial_mid: Initial mid-price for assets
mu: Price drift (expected return)
sigma: Price volatility
gamma: Inventory risk aversion parameter
base_arrival_rate: Order arrival rate (Hawkes baseline)
max_steps: Maximum episode length
seed: Random seed for reproducibility
"""
n_instruments: int = 5
initial_mid: float = 100.0
mu: float = 0.0
sigma: float = 0.02
gamma: float = 0.1
base_arrival_rate: float = 20.0
max_steps: int = 1000
seed: int | None = None
def make_market_making_platform(cfg: MarketMakingConfig | None = None) -> Platform:
"""Create a pre-configured market making platform.
Components:
- Mechanism: TwoSidedMechanism (bid-ask spread quoting)
- Arrivals: HawkesArrivalModel (clustered order flow)
- Execution: IntensityExecutionModel (distance-based fills)
- Market: GBMMarketModel (geometric Brownian motion mid-prices)
- Objective: PnL + spread_capture - inventory_risk
Args:
cfg: Configuration (uses defaults if None)
Returns:
Configured Platform instance
"""
cfg = cfg or MarketMakingConfig()
rng = np.random.default_rng(cfg.seed)
instruments = make_instruments(cfg.n_instruments, (cfg.initial_mid*0.9, cfg.initial_mid*1.1),
(0.0, 0.0), InstrumentType.ASSET, rng)
instruments.position = np.zeros(cfg.n_instruments)
mechanism = TwoSidedMechanism(TwoSidedConfig())
arrival = HawkesArrivalModel(HawkesArrivalConfig(base_rate=cfg.base_arrival_rate))
execution = IntensityExecutionModel(IntensityConfig())
position = PositionModel(PositionConfig(
initial_position=0.0, min_position=-500, max_position=500,
holding_cost_rate=0.0)) # use inventory risk penalty instead
market = GBMMarketModel(GBMMarketConfig(mu=cfg.mu, sigma=cfg.sigma),
initial=instruments.refs)
objective = market_making_objective(gamma=cfg.gamma, sigma=cfg.sigma)
return Platform(
instruments=instruments, mechanism=mechanism, arrival=arrival,
execution=execution, position=position, market=market, objective=objective,
cfg=PlatformConfig(n_instruments=cfg.n_instruments, max_steps=cfg.max_steps,
seed=cfg.seed, log_level=LogLevel.AGG_ONLY)
)

View File

@@ -1,12 +0,0 @@
SPHINXOPTS ?=
SPHINXBUILD ?= sphinx-build
SOURCEDIR = .
BUILDDIR = _build
help:
@$(SPHINXBUILD) -M help "$(SOURCEDIR)" "$(BUILDDIR)" $(SPHINXOPTS) $(O)
.PHONY: help Makefile
%: Makefile
@$(SPHINXBUILD) -M $@ "$(SOURCEDIR)" "$(BUILDDIR)" $(SPHINXOPTS) $(O)

View File

@@ -1,39 +0,0 @@
import os
import sys
sys.path.insert(0, os.path.abspath('../..'))
project = 'Quote-Control Simulator'
copyright = '2025, PHANTOM Research'
author = 'PHANTOM Research'
release = '0.1.0'
extensions = [
'sphinx.ext.autodoc',
'sphinx.ext.napoleon',
'sphinx.ext.viewcode',
'sphinx.ext.intersphinx',
'sphinx.ext.autosummary',
]
templates_path = ['_templates']
exclude_patterns = ['_build', 'Thumbs.db', '.DS_Store']
html_theme = 'alabaster'
html_static_path = ['_static']
autodoc_default_options = {
'members': True,
'undoc-members': True,
'show-inheritance': True,
}
napoleon_google_docstring = True
napoleon_numpy_docstring = True
napoleon_include_init_with_doc = True
intersphinx_mapping = {
'python': ('https://docs.python.org/3', None),
'numpy': ('https://numpy.org/doc/stable/', None),
}
autosummary_generate = True

View File

@@ -1,40 +0,0 @@
Quote-Control Simulator
=======================
Research-grade platform for dynamic pricing and market making experiments.
The platform abstracts pricing as: **Quote → Arrival → Execution → Position**
Supports multiple mechanisms:
* **PostedPrice**: retail dynamic pricing
* **TwoSided**: market making with bid-ask spreads
* **Auction**: reserve/shading for auction settings
Quick Start
-----------
.. code-block:: python
from lab.config import make_retail_platform
from lab.experiments import rollout, fixed_price_policy
platform = make_retail_platform()
policy = fixed_price_policy(platform.instruments.refs)
result = rollout(platform, policy, n_steps=100)
print(f"Total PnL: {result.total_pnl:.2f}")
.. toctree::
:maxdepth: 2
:caption: Contents:
system_overview
modules/outlet
modules/population
modules/experiments
Indices
-------
* :ref:`genindex`
* :ref:`modindex`

View File

@@ -1,14 +0,0 @@
Experiments
===========
Evaluation & OPE
----------------
.. automodule:: lab.experiments.eval
:members:
Configuration
-------------
.. automodule:: lab.config
:members:

View File

@@ -1,77 +0,0 @@
Outlet (Core Simulator)
=======================
Types
-----
.. automodule:: lab.outlet.types
:members:
Constants
---------
.. automodule:: lab.outlet.constants
:members:
Protocols
---------
.. automodule:: lab.outlet.protocols
:members:
Platform
--------
.. automodule:: lab.outlet.platform
:members:
Stock & Position
----------------
.. automodule:: lab.outlet.stock
:members:
Observation
-----------
.. automodule:: lab.outlet.observation
:members:
Mechanisms
----------
Posted Price
~~~~~~~~~~~~
.. automodule:: lab.outlet.mechanisms.posted_price
:members:
Two-Sided (Market Making)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
.. automodule:: lab.outlet.mechanisms.two_sided
:members:
Auction
~~~~~~~
.. automodule:: lab.outlet.mechanisms.auction
:members:
Objectives
----------
.. automodule:: lab.outlet.objectives.base
:members:
.. automodule:: lab.outlet.objectives.penalties
:members:
.. automodule:: lab.outlet.objectives.factory
:members:
Math Utilities
--------------
.. automodule:: lab.outlet.math_util
:members:

View File

@@ -1,20 +0,0 @@
Population Models
=================
Arrival Models
--------------
.. automodule:: lab.population.arrivals
:members:
Execution Models
----------------
.. automodule:: lab.population.execution
:members:
Competitor / Market Models
--------------------------
.. automodule:: lab.population.competitors
:members:

View File

@@ -1,97 +0,0 @@
System Overview
===============
The simulator organises dynamic pricing and market-making experiments as a
closed loop with the following stages:
* **Quote** a policy or agent emits a :class:`lab.outlet.types.Quote`. The
quote is normalised and validated by a concrete
:class:`lab.outlet.protocols.Mechanism` implementation
(posted-price, two-sided, auction).
* **Arrival** a :class:`lab.outlet.protocols.ArrivalModel` samples a stream of
:class:`lab.outlet.types.Opportunity` objects given the current time,
instrument catalogue, and market state.
* **Execution** the :class:`lab.outlet.protocols.ExecutionModel` converts an
opportunity into a probabilistic fill using the active quote, optional
competitor prices, and demand-side context.
* **Position** a :class:`lab.outlet.protocols.PositionModel` enforces
inventory or position constraints, censors oversized fills, and accrues
holding and shortage costs.
* **Observation & Reward** the
:class:`lab.outlet.protocols.ObservationBuilder` constructs the censored view
exposed to the agent, while a :class:`lab.outlet.protocols.Objective`
transforms :class:`lab.outlet.types.StepMetrics` into a scalar reward with an
optional breakdown per term.
These components are orchestrated by :class:`lab.outlet.platform.Platform`,
which manages internal hidden state, deterministic seeding, and logging.
Component Matrix
----------------
=============================== ==============================================
Layer Responsibilities / Examples
=============================== ==============================================
Mechanisms Quote normalisation, execution semantics
(`posted_price`, `two_sided`, `auction`).
Population models Arrivals (:mod:`lab.population.arrivals`),
execution probability models
(:mod:`lab.population.execution`), and
competitor or market dynamics
(:mod:`lab.population.competitors`).
Position management Inventory limits, replenishment, holding and
shortage costs (:mod:`lab.outlet.stock`).
Observation & logging Censored observations and optional event logs
(:mod:`lab.outlet.observation`).
Objectives Reward composition utilities
(:mod:`lab.outlet.objectives`).
Experiments Rollout helpers, baseline policies, off-policy
evaluation (:mod:`lab.experiments.eval`).
=============================== ==============================================
Preconfigured Platforms
-----------------------
Two high-level factories in :mod:`lab.config` wire common combinations of the
building blocks:
* **Retail dynamic pricing** posted-price mechanism, session arrivals with
contamination, elasticity-based executions, reactive competitor model, and a
composite objective that penalises volatility, holding costs, and lost
opportunities.
* **Market making** two-sided quoting, Hawkes order flow, intensity-based
executions, geometric Brownian motion mid-prices, and an objective combining
PnL, spread capture, and quadratic inventory risk.
State & Reset Behaviour
-----------------------
When you call :meth:`lab.outlet.platform.Platform.reset`, the platform resets
instrument positions, quotes, and hidden state, but component implementations
may maintain their own internal buffers. For reproducible experiments:
* Reuse freshly instantiated arrival/market models per episode, or add explicit
``reset`` methods if the model keeps history (for example,
:class:`lab.population.arrivals.HawkesArrivalModel` maintains an event
history, while :class:`lab.population.competitors.ReactiveCompetitorModel`
tracks prior competitor quotes).
* Seed randomness through the factory configuration (``RetailConfig.seed`` or
``MarketMakingConfig.seed``) or pass a seed to ``Platform.reset`` for
deterministic rollouts.
Extending the Platform
----------------------
To support a new domain:
1. Create custom Mechanism/Arrival/Execution/Market/Observation components by
implementing the respective protocol in :mod:`lab.outlet.protocols`.
2. Compose a new objective with
:func:`lab.outlet.objectives.factory.make_composite` or write a bespoke
:class:`lab.outlet.objectives.base.BaseObjective`.
3. Wire everything together via :class:`lab.outlet.platform.Platform` directly
or expose a helper factory in :mod:`lab.config`.
Use :func:`lab.experiments.rollout` and
:func:`lab.experiments.compare_policies` to benchmark candidate policies under
multiple random seeds, collecting per-step logs for analysis or OPE.

View File

@@ -1,7 +0,0 @@
from .eval import (rollout, RolloutResult, compare_policies, compute_ips, OPEResult,
fixed_price_policy, cost_plus_margin_policy, random_walk_policy, epsilon_greedy_policy)
__all__ = [
'rollout', 'RolloutResult', 'compare_policies', 'compute_ips', 'OPEResult',
'fixed_price_policy', 'cost_plus_margin_policy', 'random_walk_policy', 'epsilon_greedy_policy',
]

View File

@@ -1,213 +0,0 @@
"""
Evaluation utilities for policy testing and off-policy evaluation.
This module provides:
- rollout: Run a policy on the platform for multiple steps
- compare_policies: Compare multiple policies with statistics
- Baseline policies: fixed_price, cost_plus_margin, random_walk, epsilon_greedy
- OPE estimators: IPS and SNIPS for off-policy evaluation
Example:
>>> from lab.config import make_retail_platform
>>> from lab.experiments.eval import rollout, fixed_price_policy
>>> platform = make_retail_platform()
>>> policy = fixed_price_policy(platform.instruments.refs)
>>> result = rollout(platform, policy, n_steps=100)
>>> print(f"Total PnL: {result.total_pnl:.2f}")
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass
from typing import Callable, Any
import numpy as np
from ..outlet.platform import Platform
from ..outlet.types import StepResult, StepLogs, Quote
# Policy signature: takes (observation_flat, timestep) -> (action_prices, propensity)
Policy = Callable[[np.ndarray, int], tuple[np.ndarray, float]]
@dataclass
class RolloutResult:
"""Results from a policy rollout.
Attributes:
rewards: Per-step rewards
metrics: Per-step StepMetrics objects
logs: Per-step StepLogs objects
total_reward: Sum of rewards
total_pnl: Sum of PnL from metrics
avg_conversion: Average conversion rate
"""
rewards: list[float]
metrics: list[Any]
logs: list[StepLogs]
total_reward: float
total_pnl: float
avg_conversion: float
def rollout(platform: Platform, policy: Policy, n_steps: int, seed: int | None = None) -> RolloutResult:
"""Execute a policy on the platform for n_steps.
Args:
platform: The simulation platform
policy: Function (obs, t) -> (action, propensity)
n_steps: Number of steps to run
seed: Random seed for reproducibility
Returns:
RolloutResult with rewards, metrics, and summary statistics
"""
result = platform.reset(seed)
rewards, metrics, logs = [], [], []
for t in range(n_steps):
obs_flat = result.obs.to_flat()
action, propensity = policy(obs_flat, t)
result = platform.step(action, propensity)
rewards.append(result.reward)
metrics.append(result.metrics)
logs.append(result.logs)
if result.terminated or result.truncated:
break
return RolloutResult(
rewards=rewards, metrics=metrics, logs=logs,
total_reward=sum(rewards),
total_pnl=sum(m.pnl for m in metrics),
avg_conversion=np.mean([m.conversion for m in metrics])
)
# Baseline policies for comparison
def fixed_price_policy(refs: np.ndarray) -> Policy:
"""Policy that always quotes at reference prices."""
def policy(obs: np.ndarray, t: int) -> tuple[np.ndarray, float]:
return refs.copy(), 1.0
return policy
def cost_plus_margin_policy(costs: np.ndarray, margin: float = 0.3) -> Policy:
"""Policy that quotes at cost * (1 + margin)."""
prices = costs * (1 + margin)
def policy(obs: np.ndarray, t: int) -> tuple[np.ndarray, float]:
return prices.copy(), 1.0
return policy
def random_walk_policy(refs: np.ndarray, volatility: float = 0.05,
rng: np.random.Generator | None = None) -> Policy:
"""Policy that performs a random walk around reference prices."""
rng = rng or np.random.default_rng()
prices = refs.copy()
def policy(obs: np.ndarray, t: int) -> tuple[np.ndarray, float]:
nonlocal prices
delta = rng.normal(0, volatility, len(prices))
prices = prices * (1 + delta)
prices = np.clip(prices, refs * 0.5, refs * 2.0)
return prices.copy(), 1.0
return policy
def epsilon_greedy_policy(base_policy: Policy, refs: np.ndarray,
epsilon: float = 0.1, rng: np.random.Generator | None = None) -> Policy:
"""Wrap a policy with epsilon-greedy exploration."""
rng = rng or np.random.default_rng()
def policy(obs: np.ndarray, t: int) -> tuple[np.ndarray, float]:
if rng.random() < epsilon:
action = refs * rng.uniform(0.8, 1.2, len(refs))
return action, epsilon / len(refs)
else:
action, _ = base_policy(obs, t)
return action, 1 - epsilon
return policy
# Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE)
@dataclass
class OPEResult:
"""Results from off-policy evaluation.
Attributes:
ips_estimate: Inverse Propensity Scoring estimate
snips_estimate: Self-normalized IPS estimate (more stable)
n_samples: Number of samples used
effective_samples: Effective sample size (accounts for variance)
"""
ips_estimate: float
snips_estimate: float
n_samples: int
effective_samples: float
def compute_ips(logs: list[StepLogs], rewards: list[float],
target_policy: Policy, behavior_propensities: list[float] | None = None) -> OPEResult:
"""Compute IPS and SNIPS estimators for off-policy evaluation.
Uses logged propensities to estimate expected reward under a target
policy from data collected under a behavior policy.
Args:
logs: Step logs containing propensities
rewards: Observed rewards from behavior policy
target_policy: Policy to evaluate (not currently used, assumes deterministic)
behavior_propensities: Override propensities if not in logs
Returns:
OPEResult with IPS, SNIPS estimates and sample statistics
"""
if behavior_propensities is None:
# extract from logs
behavior_propensities = []
for log in logs:
if log.executions:
avg_prop = np.mean([e.propensity for e in log.executions])
else:
avg_prop = 1.0
behavior_propensities.append(avg_prop)
# compute importance weights
weights = []
for i, (log, bp) in enumerate(zip(logs, behavior_propensities)):
# target propensity would need obs reconstruction - simplified here
tp = 1.0 # assume deterministic target
w = tp / (bp + 1e-8)
weights.append(w)
weights = np.array(weights)
rewards = np.array(rewards)
# IPS estimate
ips = np.sum(weights * rewards) / len(rewards)
# SNIPS (self-normalized)
snips = np.sum(weights * rewards) / (np.sum(weights) + 1e-8)
# effective sample size
ess = (np.sum(weights) ** 2) / (np.sum(weights ** 2) + 1e-8)
return OPEResult(ips_estimate=ips, snips_estimate=snips,
n_samples=len(rewards), effective_samples=ess)
def compare_policies(platform: Platform, policies: dict[str, Policy],
n_steps: int = 100, n_runs: int = 5, seed: int = 42) -> dict[str, dict]:
"""Compare multiple policies with statistical summary.
Args:
platform: Simulation platform
policies: Dict mapping policy names to policy functions
n_steps: Steps per rollout
n_runs: Number of rollouts per policy (different seeds)
seed: Base random seed
Returns:
Dict mapping policy names to result dicts with mean/std statistics
"""
results = {}
for name, policy in policies.items():
run_results = []
for i in range(n_runs):
r = rollout(platform, policy, n_steps, seed=seed + i)
run_results.append(r)
results[name] = {
'mean_reward': np.mean([r.total_reward for r in run_results]),
'std_reward': np.std([r.total_reward for r in run_results]),
'mean_pnl': np.mean([r.total_pnl for r in run_results]),
'mean_conversion': np.mean([r.avg_conversion for r in run_results]),
}
return results

View File

@@ -1,17 +0,0 @@
from .constants import Side, MechanismType, InstrumentType, OpportunityType, EventType, LogLevel
from .types import (Instrument, InstrumentSet, Quote, Opportunity, Execution,
StepEvent, StepLogs, StepMetrics, MarketState, HiddenState, Observation, StepResult)
from .stock import PositionModel, PositionConfig, make_instruments
from .platform import Platform, PlatformConfig
from .observation import DefaultObservationBuilder, ObservationConfig
from .mechanisms import PostedPriceMechanism, TwoSidedMechanism, AuctionMechanism
__all__ = [
'Side', 'MechanismType', 'InstrumentType', 'OpportunityType', 'EventType', 'LogLevel',
'Instrument', 'InstrumentSet', 'Quote', 'Opportunity', 'Execution',
'StepEvent', 'StepLogs', 'StepMetrics', 'MarketState', 'HiddenState', 'Observation', 'StepResult',
'PositionModel', 'PositionConfig', 'make_instruments',
'Platform', 'PlatformConfig',
'DefaultObservationBuilder', 'ObservationConfig',
'PostedPriceMechanism', 'TwoSidedMechanism', 'AuctionMechanism',
]

View File

@@ -1,83 +0,0 @@
"""
Constants and enumerations for the Quote-Control simulator.
This module defines the core enums used throughout the platform to ensure
type safety and consistent semantics across different pricing mechanisms.
"""
from enum import Enum, auto
class Side(Enum):
"""Transaction side indicator.
Attributes:
BUY: Buyer-initiated transaction (customer purchases, market buy order)
SELL: Seller-initiated transaction (market sell order, short sale)
"""
BUY = auto()
SELL = auto()
class MechanismType(Enum):
"""Pricing mechanism type defining how quotes translate to executions.
Attributes:
POSTED_PRICE: Single posted price per instrument (retail dynamic pricing)
TWO_SIDED_QUOTE: Bid-ask spread quoting (market making, liquidity provision)
AUCTION: Reserve price or bid shading (ad auctions, marketplaces)
"""
POSTED_PRICE = auto()
TWO_SIDED_QUOTE = auto()
AUCTION = auto()
class InstrumentType(Enum):
"""Type of instrument being priced.
Attributes:
SKU: Retail product with inventory constraints
ASSET: Financial instrument with position limits
LOAN: Credit product with interest rate pricing
SUBSCRIPTION: Recurring service with periodic fees
"""
SKU = auto()
ASSET = auto()
LOAN = auto()
SUBSCRIPTION = auto()
class OpportunityType(Enum):
"""Type of arrival opportunity.
Attributes:
SESSION: Retail browsing session with potential purchase intent
MARKET_ORDER: Financial market order arrival (buy or sell)
REQUEST: Service or credit request requiring quote response
"""
SESSION = auto()
MARKET_ORDER = auto()
REQUEST = auto()
class EventType(Enum):
"""Type of logged event during simulation.
Attributes:
ARRIVAL: New opportunity arrived in the system
EXPOSURE: Quote was shown to an arrival
EXECUTION: Transaction was executed
ABANDON: Opportunity abandoned without execution
CANCEL: Pending order was cancelled
"""
ARRIVAL = auto()
EXPOSURE = auto()
EXECUTION = auto()
ABANDON = auto()
CANCEL = auto()
class LogLevel(Enum):
"""Verbosity level for step logging.
Attributes:
NONE: No logging, fastest execution
AGG_ONLY: Only aggregate statistics per step
FULL: Full event-level logging with propensities for OPE
"""
NONE = auto()
AGG_ONLY = auto()
FULL = auto()

View File

@@ -1,86 +0,0 @@
"""
Gymnasium-compatible wrapper for the Quote-Control platform.
Provides a standard Gym interface for RL training:
- observation_space: Box space with flattened observation
- action_space: Box space with price multipliers [0.5, 2.0]
- reset(), step(), render(), close() methods
Example:
>>> from lab.config import make_retail_platform
>>> from lab.outlet.gym_wrapper import QuoteGymEnv
>>> env = QuoteGymEnv(make_retail_platform())
>>> obs, info = env.reset()
>>> obs, reward, done, truncated, info = env.step(env.action_space.sample())
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from typing import Any
import numpy as np
try:
import gymnasium as gym
from gymnasium import spaces
HAS_GYM = True
except ImportError:
HAS_GYM = False
from .platform import Platform, PlatformConfig
from .types import Quote, InstrumentSet, StepResult
class QuoteGymEnv:
"""Gymnasium-compatible environment wrapper.
Wraps a Platform instance with standard Gym interface.
Actions are price multipliers in [0.5, 2.0] applied to reference prices.
Observations are flattened numpy arrays containing quotes, fills, exposures.
"""
def __init__(self, platform: Platform):
if not HAS_GYM:
raise ImportError("gymnasium required for QuoteGymEnv")
self.platform = platform
self.n = platform.instruments.n
self._last_result: StepResult | None = None
# action space: price adjustments as multipliers [0.5, 2.0]
self.action_space = spaces.Box(low=0.5, high=2.0, shape=(self.n,), dtype=np.float32)
# observation space
obs_dim = self.n * 4 # quotes + fills + exposures + position
if platform.market:
obs_dim += self.n # competitor quotes
self.observation_space = spaces.Box(low=-np.inf, high=np.inf,
shape=(obs_dim,), dtype=np.float32)
def reset(self, seed: int | None = None, options: dict | None = None) -> tuple[np.ndarray, dict]:
result = self.platform.reset(seed)
self._last_result = result
return result.obs.to_flat().astype(np.float32), result.info
def step(self, action: np.ndarray) -> tuple[np.ndarray, float, bool, bool, dict]:
# convert action (multipliers) to absolute prices
refs = self.platform.instruments.refs
prices = refs * action
result = self.platform.step(prices)
self._last_result = result
return (result.obs.to_flat().astype(np.float32), result.reward,
result.terminated, result.truncated, result.info)
def render(self) -> None:
if self._last_result:
m = self._last_result.metrics
print(f"t={self.platform._t} pnl={m.pnl:.2f} units={m.units_traded:.0f} "
f"conv={m.conversion:.3f} vol={m.volatility:.3f}")
def close(self) -> None:
pass
def make_env(platform: Platform) -> QuoteGymEnv:
return QuoteGymEnv(platform)
if HAS_GYM:
# register if gymnasium available
try:
gym.register(id='QuoteControl-v0', entry_point='outlet.gym_wrapper:QuoteGymEnv')
except:
pass # already registered or other issue

View File

@@ -1,57 +0,0 @@
"""
Numerical utilities for stable computation.
This module provides numerically stable implementations of common operations:
- safe_exp, safe_log: Avoid overflow/underflow
- softmax: Numerically stable softmax
- sigmoid, clamp: Standard transformations
- intensity_decay: Avellaneda-Stoikov fill intensity
- inventory_penalty: Quadratic inventory risk
- poisson_arrivals, hawkes_intensity: Arrival process helpers
All functions accept both scalars and numpy arrays.
"""
import numpy as np
EPS = 1e-8 # small constant to avoid division by zero
MAX_EXP = 700.0 # maximum safe exponent to avoid overflow
def safe_exp(x: np.ndarray | float) -> np.ndarray | float:
return np.exp(np.clip(x, -MAX_EXP, MAX_EXP))
def safe_log(x: np.ndarray | float) -> np.ndarray | float:
return np.log(np.maximum(x, EPS))
def clamp(x: np.ndarray | float, lo: float, hi: float) -> np.ndarray | float:
return np.clip(x, lo, hi)
def sigmoid(x: np.ndarray | float) -> np.ndarray | float:
return 1.0 / (1.0 + safe_exp(-x))
def softmax(x: np.ndarray, axis: int = -1) -> np.ndarray:
x_max = np.max(x, axis=axis, keepdims=True)
exp_x = safe_exp(x - x_max)
return exp_x / (np.sum(exp_x, axis=axis, keepdims=True) + EPS)
def geometric_series(base: float, ratio: float, n: int) -> np.ndarray:
return base * (ratio ** np.arange(n))
def ema(old: float, new: float, alpha: float = 0.1) -> float:
return alpha * new + (1 - alpha) * old
def intensity_decay(distance: float, kappa: float = 1.0) -> float:
"""Avellaneda-Stoikov style fill intensity decay with quote distance"""
return safe_exp(-kappa * distance)
def inventory_penalty(q: float, gamma: float = 0.1, sigma: float = 1.0) -> float:
"""Quadratic inventory risk penalty"""
return gamma * sigma**2 * q**2 / 2
def poisson_arrivals(rate: float, dt: float, rng: np.random.Generator) -> int:
return rng.poisson(rate * dt)
def hawkes_intensity(base: float, history: np.ndarray, alpha: float, beta: float, t: float) -> float:
"""Self-exciting Hawkes process intensity"""
if len(history) == 0: return base
decays = safe_exp(-beta * (t - history[history < t]))
return base + alpha * np.sum(decays)

View File

@@ -1,5 +0,0 @@
from .posted_price import PostedPriceMechanism
from .two_sided import TwoSidedMechanism
from .auction import AuctionMechanism
__all__ = ['PostedPriceMechanism', 'TwoSidedMechanism', 'AuctionMechanism']

View File

@@ -1,73 +0,0 @@
"""
Auction mechanism for reserve pricing and bid shading.
In this mechanism, the agent sets reserve prices that affect
win probability and clearing prices. Used for ad auctions,
marketplace auctions, and similar settings.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass
import numpy as np
from ..types import Quote, Opportunity, Execution, InstrumentSet, MarketState
from ..constants import Side
from ..math_util import clamp, sigmoid
@dataclass
class AuctionConfig:
"""Configuration for auction mechanism.
Attributes:
min_reserve: Minimum reserve price
max_reserve: Maximum reserve price
base_win_prob: Baseline win probability at reference reserve
sensitivity: How much higher reserves reduce win probability
"""
min_reserve: float = 0.0
max_reserve: float = 100.0
base_win_prob: float = 0.3
sensitivity: float = 2.0
class AuctionMechanism:
"""Auction mechanism for reserve pricing.
The agent sets reserve prices that affect:
- Win probability: higher reserves reduce chance of winning
- Clearing price: bounded between reserve and simulated max bid
Win probability: base_prob * sigmoid(-sensitivity * (reserve - ref) / ref)
Clearing price: max(reserve, min(max_bid, reserve + random_increment))
Only BUY-side opportunities are processed (auction wins).
"""
def __init__(self, cfg: AuctionConfig | None = None):
self.cfg = cfg or AuctionConfig()
def apply_quote(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
rng: np.random.Generator) -> Quote:
reserves = clamp(quote.prices, self.cfg.min_reserve, self.cfg.max_reserve)
return Quote(prices=reserves, propensity=quote.propensity, metadata=quote.metadata)
def process_opportunity(self, opp: Opportunity, quote: Quote,
instruments: InstrumentSet, market: MarketState | None,
rng: np.random.Generator) -> Execution | None:
if opp.side != Side.BUY: return None
idx = int(opp.instrument_id)
reserve = float(quote.prices[idx])
ref = instruments.refs[idx]
# win probability decreases with higher reserve
relative_reserve = (reserve - ref) / (ref + 1e-8)
win_prob = self.cfg.base_win_prob * sigmoid(-self.cfg.sensitivity * relative_reserve)
if rng.random() > win_prob: return None
# clearing price is between reserve and some max bid (simulated)
max_bid = ref * (1 + rng.exponential(0.2))
clearing = max(reserve, min(max_bid, reserve + rng.exponential(0.1) * ref))
return Execution(
opportunity_id=opp.id, instrument_id=opp.instrument_id,
side=opp.side, size_requested=opp.size, size_filled=opp.size,
price=clearing, propensity=quote.propensity * win_prob, t=opp.t
)

View File

@@ -1,84 +0,0 @@
"""
Posted price mechanism for retail dynamic pricing.
In this mechanism, the agent posts a single price per instrument.
Buyers decide whether to purchase based on the posted price.
This is the standard e-commerce dynamic pricing model.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass
import numpy as np
from ..types import Quote, Opportunity, Execution, InstrumentSet, MarketState
from ..constants import Side
from ..math_util import clamp
@dataclass
class PostedPriceConfig:
"""Configuration for posted price mechanism.
Attributes:
min_price: Absolute minimum price
max_price: Absolute maximum price
max_delta_pct: Maximum price change per step as fraction of previous
min_margin_pct: Minimum margin over cost basis
round_to: Price rounding granularity (None = no rounding)
"""
min_price: float = 0.01
max_price: float = 1000.0
max_delta_pct: float = 0.2
min_margin_pct: float = 0.05
round_to: float | None = 0.01
class PostedPriceMechanism:
"""Posted price mechanism for retail dynamic pricing.
The agent posts a single price per product. Constraints enforced:
- Prices within [min_price, max_price]
- Margin at least min_margin_pct above cost
- Price changes limited to max_delta_pct per step
- Prices rounded to round_to granularity
Only BUY-side opportunities are processed (customers purchasing).
"""
def __init__(self, cfg: PostedPriceConfig | None = None):
self.cfg = cfg or PostedPriceConfig()
def apply_quote(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
rng: np.random.Generator) -> Quote:
prices = quote.prices.copy()
costs = instruments.costs
refs = instruments.refs
c = self.cfg
# enforce min margin
min_prices = costs * (1 + c.min_margin_pct)
prices = np.maximum(prices, min_prices)
# enforce absolute bounds
prices = clamp(prices, c.min_price, c.max_price)
# enforce max delta if we have history
if 'prev_prices' in quote.metadata:
prev = quote.metadata['prev_prices']
max_change = prev * c.max_delta_pct
prices = clamp(prices, prev - max_change, prev + max_change)
# round prices
if c.round_to:
prices = np.round(prices / c.round_to) * c.round_to
return Quote(prices=prices, propensity=quote.propensity,
metadata={**quote.metadata, 'prev_prices': prices})
def process_opportunity(self, opp: Opportunity, quote: Quote,
instruments: InstrumentSet, market: MarketState | None,
rng: np.random.Generator) -> Execution | None:
if opp.side != Side.BUY: return None # posted price is buy-only
idx = int(opp.instrument_id)
price = float(quote.prices[idx])
return Execution(
opportunity_id=opp.id, instrument_id=opp.instrument_id,
side=opp.side, size_requested=opp.size, size_filled=opp.size,
price=price, propensity=quote.propensity, t=opp.t
)

View File

@@ -1,89 +0,0 @@
"""
Two-sided quoting mechanism for market making.
In this mechanism, the agent posts both bid and ask prices.
Execution depends on the distance from the market mid-price.
This models liquidity provision in financial markets.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass
import numpy as np
from ..types import Quote, Opportunity, Execution, InstrumentSet, MarketState
from ..constants import Side
from ..math_util import clamp, intensity_decay
@dataclass
class TwoSidedConfig:
"""Configuration for two-sided quoting mechanism.
Attributes:
min_spread: Minimum bid-ask spread
max_spread: Maximum bid-ask spread
min_price: Absolute minimum price
max_price: Absolute maximum price
fill_kappa: Intensity decay parameter (higher = faster decay with distance)
"""
min_spread: float = 0.01
max_spread: float = 0.5
min_price: float = 0.01
max_price: float = 10000.0
fill_kappa: float = 1.5
class TwoSidedMechanism:
"""Two-sided quoting mechanism for market making.
The agent posts bid (buy) and ask (sell) prices around a mid-point.
Fill probability decays exponentially with distance from mid-price,
following the Avellaneda-Stoikov intensity model.
Both BUY and SELL opportunities are processed:
- BUY: customer buys at agent's ask price
- SELL: customer sells at agent's bid price
"""
def __init__(self, cfg: TwoSidedConfig | None = None):
self.cfg = cfg or TwoSidedConfig()
def apply_quote(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
rng: np.random.Generator) -> Quote:
prices = quote.prices.copy()
spreads = quote.spreads.copy() if quote.spreads is not None else np.full_like(prices, 0.02)
c = self.cfg
prices = clamp(prices, c.min_price, c.max_price)
spreads = clamp(spreads, c.min_spread, c.max_spread)
# ensure bids < asks
half_spread = spreads / 2
bids = prices - half_spread
asks = prices + half_spread
bids = np.maximum(bids, c.min_price)
asks = np.minimum(asks, c.max_price)
spreads = asks - bids
prices = (bids + asks) / 2
return Quote(prices=prices, spreads=spreads, propensity=quote.propensity,
metadata=quote.metadata)
def process_opportunity(self, opp: Opportunity, quote: Quote,
instruments: InstrumentSet, market: MarketState | None,
rng: np.random.Generator) -> Execution | None:
idx = int(opp.instrument_id)
mid = market.mid_prices[idx] if market and market.mid_prices is not None else quote.prices[idx]
if opp.side == Side.BUY:
price = float(quote.asks[idx]) if quote.asks is not None else float(quote.prices[idx])
distance = price - mid
else:
price = float(quote.bids[idx]) if quote.bids is not None else float(quote.prices[idx])
distance = mid - price
# probabilistic fill based on distance from mid
fill_prob = intensity_decay(abs(distance), self.cfg.fill_kappa)
if rng.random() > fill_prob: return None
return Execution(
opportunity_id=opp.id, instrument_id=opp.instrument_id,
side=opp.side, size_requested=opp.size, size_filled=opp.size,
price=price, propensity=quote.propensity * fill_prob, t=opp.t
)

View File

@@ -1,11 +0,0 @@
from .base import BaseObjective, CompositeObjective
from .penalties import (PnLObjective, VolatilityPenalty, HoldingCostPenalty,
LostOpportunityCostPenalty, InventoryRiskPenalty, SpreadCaptureReward)
from .factory import make_objective, make_composite, retail_objective, market_making_objective
__all__ = [
'BaseObjective', 'CompositeObjective',
'PnLObjective', 'VolatilityPenalty', 'HoldingCostPenalty',
'LostOpportunityCostPenalty', 'InventoryRiskPenalty', 'SpreadCaptureReward',
'make_objective', 'make_composite', 'retail_objective', 'market_making_objective',
]

View File

@@ -1,48 +0,0 @@
"""
Base classes for reward objectives.
Objectives compute scalar rewards from step metrics. The CompositeObjective
allows combining multiple objectives with weights for multi-objective optimization.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from abc import ABC, abstractmethod
from ..types import Quote, InstrumentSet, StepMetrics, HiddenState, Observation
class BaseObjective(ABC):
"""Abstract base class for reward objectives.
Subclasses must implement reward() and breakdown() methods.
"""
@abstractmethod
def reward(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> float: ...
@abstractmethod
def breakdown(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> dict[str, float]: ...
class CompositeObjective(BaseObjective):
"""Weighted sum of multiple objectives.
Allows combining multiple reward terms (e.g., PnL - holding_cost - volatility).
Args:
objectives: List of (objective, weight) tuples
"""
def __init__(self, objectives: list[tuple[BaseObjective, float]]):
self.objectives = objectives
def reward(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> float:
return sum(w * obj.reward(quote, instruments, metrics, hidden, obs)
for obj, w in self.objectives)
def breakdown(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> dict[str, float]:
bd = {}
for obj, w in self.objectives:
for k, v in obj.breakdown(quote, instruments, metrics, hidden, obs).items():
bd[k] = w * v
return bd

View File

@@ -1,82 +0,0 @@
"""
Factory functions for creating objectives.
Provides:
- make_objective: Create single objective by name
- make_composite: Create weighted combination of objectives
- retail_objective: Default objective for retail pricing
- market_making_objective: Default objective for market making
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from .base import BaseObjective, CompositeObjective
from .penalties import (PnLObjective, VolatilityPenalty, HoldingCostPenalty,
LostOpportunityCostPenalty, InventoryRiskPenalty, SpreadCaptureReward)
REGISTRY: dict[str, type[BaseObjective]] = {
'pnl': PnLObjective,
'volatility': VolatilityPenalty,
'holding_cost': HoldingCostPenalty,
'lost_opportunity': LostOpportunityCostPenalty,
'inventory_risk': InventoryRiskPenalty,
'spread_capture': SpreadCaptureReward,
}
def make_objective(name: str, **kwargs) -> BaseObjective:
"""Create an objective by name.
Args:
name: Objective name (pnl, volatility, holding_cost, lost_opportunity,
inventory_risk, spread_capture)
**kwargs: Passed to objective constructor
Returns:
Instantiated objective
"""
if name not in REGISTRY:
raise ValueError(f"Unknown objective: {name}. Available: {list(REGISTRY.keys())}")
return REGISTRY[name](**kwargs)
def make_composite(spec: list[tuple[str, float, dict]] | dict[str, float]) -> CompositeObjective:
"""Create composite objective from specification.
Args:
spec: Either:
- list of (name, weight, kwargs) tuples for full control
- dict of {name: weight} for simple cases
Returns:
CompositeObjective with specified components
"""
objectives = []
if isinstance(spec, dict):
for name, weight in spec.items():
objectives.append((make_objective(name), weight))
else:
for name, weight, kwargs in spec:
objectives.append((make_objective(name, **kwargs), weight))
return CompositeObjective(objectives)
def retail_objective(volatility_weight: float = 0.1, holding_weight: float = 0.5,
stockout_weight: float = 0.3) -> CompositeObjective:
"""Default objective for retail dynamic pricing.
Reward = PnL - volatility_weight*volatility - holding_weight*holding_cost
- stockout_weight*lost_opportunity
"""
return make_composite({
'pnl': 1.0,
'volatility': volatility_weight,
'holding_cost': holding_weight,
'lost_opportunity': stockout_weight,
})
def market_making_objective(gamma: float = 0.1, sigma: float = 1.0) -> CompositeObjective:
"""Default objective for market making.
Reward = PnL + 0.5*spread_capture - inventory_risk(gamma, sigma)
"""
return CompositeObjective([
(PnLObjective(), 1.0),
(SpreadCaptureReward(), 0.5),
(InventoryRiskPenalty(gamma=gamma, sigma=sigma), 1.0),
])

View File

@@ -1,101 +0,0 @@
"""
Standard objective components and penalties.
This module provides common reward terms:
- PnLObjective: Basic profit and loss
- VolatilityPenalty: Penalize price volatility for UX
- HoldingCostPenalty: Inventory holding cost
- LostOpportunityCostPenalty: Stockout/missed fill cost
- InventoryRiskPenalty: Quadratic inventory risk (market making)
- SpreadCaptureReward: Bid-ask spread capture (market making)
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import numpy as np
from .base import BaseObjective
from ..types import Quote, InstrumentSet, StepMetrics, HiddenState, Observation
from ..math_util import inventory_penalty
class PnLObjective(BaseObjective):
"""Profit and loss reward (revenue - cost)."""
def reward(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> float:
return metrics.pnl
def breakdown(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> dict[str, float]:
return {'pnl': metrics.pnl, 'revenue': metrics.revenue, 'cost': metrics.cost}
class VolatilityPenalty(BaseObjective):
"""Penalize price volatility for user experience."""
def __init__(self, scale: float = 1.0):
self.scale = scale
def reward(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> float:
return -self.scale * metrics.volatility
def breakdown(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> dict[str, float]:
return {'volatility_penalty': -self.scale * metrics.volatility}
class HoldingCostPenalty(BaseObjective):
"""Penalty for inventory holding costs."""
def __init__(self, scale: float = 1.0):
self.scale = scale
def reward(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> float:
return -self.scale * metrics.position_cost
def breakdown(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> dict[str, float]:
return {'holding_cost_penalty': -self.scale * metrics.position_cost}
class LostOpportunityCostPenalty(BaseObjective):
"""Penalty for lost sales due to stockouts or missed fills."""
def __init__(self, scale: float = 1.0):
self.scale = scale
def reward(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> float:
return -self.scale * metrics.lost_opportunity
def breakdown(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> dict[str, float]:
return {'lost_opportunity_penalty': -self.scale * metrics.lost_opportunity}
class InventoryRiskPenalty(BaseObjective):
"""Quadratic inventory risk penalty (Avellaneda-Stoikov style).
Penalty = gamma * sigma^2 * q^2 / 2, where q is total position.
Encourages market makers to keep inventory near zero.
"""
def __init__(self, gamma: float = 0.1, sigma: float = 1.0):
self.gamma = gamma
self.sigma = sigma
def reward(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> float:
if obs.position is None: return 0.0
q = np.sum(obs.position)
return -inventory_penalty(q, self.gamma, self.sigma)
def breakdown(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> dict[str, float]:
return {'inventory_risk_penalty': self.reward(quote, instruments, metrics, hidden, obs)}
class SpreadCaptureReward(BaseObjective):
"""Reward for capturing bid-ask spread in market making."""
def reward(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> float:
return metrics.spread_capture
def breakdown(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState, obs: Observation) -> dict[str, float]:
return {'spread_capture': metrics.spread_capture}

View File

@@ -1,92 +0,0 @@
"""
Observation construction with demand censoring.
This module provides the ObservationBuilder that constructs agent observations
from step data. The key invariant is that observations only contain censored
data (fills) and never true demand, ensuring proper research conditions.
The ObservationConfig controls what is included in observations:
- Position visibility
- Market/competitor visibility
- Demand proxy method
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass
import numpy as np
from .types import Quote, InstrumentSet, StepLogs, StepMetrics, MarketState, HiddenState, Observation
@dataclass
class ObservationConfig:
"""Configuration for observation construction.
Attributes:
include_position: Include current position in observation
include_market: Include market/competitor state in observation
mask_true_demand: If True, observation excludes true demand (research mode)
demand_proxy: Method for demand proxy ('fills', 'exposures', 'weighted')
exposure_weights: Weights for weighted demand proxy
"""
include_position: bool = True
include_market: bool = True
mask_true_demand: bool = True
demand_proxy: str = 'fills'
exposure_weights: dict[str, float] | None = None
class DefaultObservationBuilder:
"""Constructs censored observations for the agent.
Ensures the key research invariant: observations contain only
censored fills (realized sales), never true demand. True demand
is placed in the info dict for research analysis only.
"""
def __init__(self, cfg: ObservationConfig | None = None):
self.cfg = cfg or ObservationConfig()
def build(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet, logs: StepLogs,
metrics: StepMetrics, market: MarketState | None,
hidden: HiddenState, mask_demand: bool, t: int) -> Observation:
n = instruments.n
cfg = self.cfg
# always show censored fills
fills = logs.censored_fills if logs.censored_fills is not None else np.zeros(n)
# compute exposures from logs
if logs.events:
exposures = np.zeros(n)
for e in logs.events:
if e.instrument_id is not None:
exposures[e.instrument_id] += 1
else:
exposures = logs.aggregates.get('exposures', np.zeros(n))
# position - only if configured and available
position = None
if cfg.include_position and instruments.position is not None:
position = instruments.position.copy()
# market state - only if configured
obs_market = market if cfg.include_market else None
return Observation(
quotes=quote.prices.copy(),
position=position,
fills=fills,
exposures=exposures,
market=obs_market,
t=t
)
def make_space(self, n_instruments: int, include_market: bool = True) -> dict:
"""Returns dict describing observation space for gym"""
space = {
'quotes': {'shape': (n_instruments,), 'low': 0, 'high': np.inf},
'fills': {'shape': (n_instruments,), 'low': 0, 'high': np.inf},
'exposures': {'shape': (n_instruments,), 'low': 0, 'high': np.inf},
}
if self.cfg.include_position:
space['position'] = {'shape': (n_instruments,), 'low': -np.inf, 'high': np.inf}
if include_market:
space['competitor_quotes'] = {'shape': (n_instruments,), 'low': 0, 'high': np.inf}
return space

View File

@@ -1,285 +0,0 @@
"""
Main simulation platform orchestrating the Quote-Control loop.
The Platform class is the central coordinator that:
1. Receives pricing actions (quotes) from the agent
2. Generates arrivals via the ArrivalModel
3. Processes executions via Mechanism and ExecutionModel
4. Applies position censorship via PositionModel
5. Computes metrics and reward via Objective
6. Returns censored observations
Example:
>>> from lab.config import make_retail_platform
>>> platform = make_retail_platform()
>>> result = platform.reset(seed=42)
>>> result = platform.step(platform.instruments.refs * 1.1)
>>> print(f"PnL: {result.metrics.pnl:.2f}")
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from typing import Any
import numpy as np
from .types import (Quote, Opportunity, Execution, InstrumentSet, StepLogs, StepMetrics,
StepEvent, MarketState, HiddenState, Observation, StepResult)
from .constants import LogLevel, EventType, Side
from .protocols import Mechanism, ArrivalModel, ExecutionModel, PositionModel, MarketModel, ObservationBuilder, Objective
from .stock import PositionModel as DefaultPositionModel, PositionConfig
from .observation import DefaultObservationBuilder, ObservationConfig
from .objectives.factory import retail_objective
@dataclass
class PlatformConfig:
"""Configuration for the simulation platform.
Attributes:
n_instruments: Number of instruments in the simulation
max_steps: Maximum steps before episode terminates
dt: Time duration per step (affects arrival rates)
log_level: Verbosity of logging (NONE, AGG_ONLY, FULL)
mask_demand: If True, observations exclude true demand (research mode)
seed: Random seed for reproducibility
"""
n_instruments: int = 10
max_steps: int = 1000
dt: float = 1.0
log_level: LogLevel = LogLevel.AGG_ONLY
mask_demand: bool = True
seed: int | None = None
class Platform:
"""Main simulation orchestrator implementing Quote -> Arrival -> Execution -> Position.
The Platform coordinates all components to simulate a pricing environment:
- Mechanism: validates quotes and determines execution logic
- ArrivalModel: generates demand opportunities
- ExecutionModel: computes acceptance probabilities
- PositionModel: manages inventory/position and censorship
- MarketModel: updates competitor/market state
- ObservationBuilder: constructs censored observations
- Objective: computes reward from metrics
Attributes:
instruments: The instrument set being priced
mechanism: Quote validation and execution mechanism
arrival: Demand arrival generator
execution: Acceptance probability model
position: Inventory/position manager
market: Competitor/market dynamics (optional)
obs_builder: Observation constructor
objective: Reward function
cfg: Platform configuration
"""
def __init__(self, instruments: InstrumentSet, mechanism: Mechanism,
arrival: ArrivalModel, execution: ExecutionModel,
position: PositionModel | None = None,
market: MarketModel | None = None,
obs_builder: ObservationBuilder | None = None,
objective: Objective | None = None,
cfg: PlatformConfig | None = None):
self.instruments = instruments
self.mechanism = mechanism
self.arrival = arrival
self.execution = execution
self.position = position or DefaultPositionModel(PositionConfig())
self.market = market
self.obs_builder = obs_builder or DefaultObservationBuilder()
self.objective = objective or retail_objective()
self.cfg = cfg or PlatformConfig(n_instruments=instruments.n)
self._t: int = 0
self._rng: np.random.Generator = np.random.default_rng(self.cfg.seed)
self._quote: Quote | None = None
self._market_state: MarketState | None = None
self._hidden: HiddenState = HiddenState()
self._prev_prices: np.ndarray | None = None
def reset(self, seed: int | None = None) -> StepResult:
"""Reset the platform to initial state.
Args:
seed: Random seed (overrides config seed if provided)
Returns:
Initial StepResult with zeroed metrics and initial observation
"""
self._t = 0
self._rng = np.random.default_rng(seed or self.cfg.seed)
self._hidden = HiddenState()
self._prev_prices = self.instruments.refs.copy()
# reset position
self.position.reset(self.instruments, self._rng)
self.instruments.position = self.position.position
# initial quote at reference prices
self._quote = Quote(prices=self.instruments.refs.copy(), propensity=1.0,
metadata={'prev_prices': self._prev_prices})
self._quote = self.mechanism.apply_quote(self._quote, self.instruments, self._rng)
# initial market state
if self.market:
self._market_state = self.market.step(0, self._quote, self._hidden, self._rng)
# build initial observation
logs = StepLogs(aggregates={'reset': True},
true_demand=np.zeros(self.instruments.n),
censored_fills=np.zeros(self.instruments.n))
metrics = StepMetrics()
obs = self.obs_builder.build(self._quote, self.instruments, logs, metrics,
self._market_state, self._hidden, self.cfg.mask_demand, 0)
return StepResult(obs=obs, reward=0.0, terminated=False, truncated=False,
info={'true_demand': logs.true_demand}, metrics=metrics,
logs=logs, hidden=self._hidden)
def step(self, action: np.ndarray, propensity: float = 1.0) -> StepResult:
"""Execute one simulation step with the given pricing action.
The step proceeds as follows:
1. Apply quote constraints via mechanism
2. Update market/competitor state
3. Generate arrivals
4. Process arrivals -> executions with acceptance check
5. Apply position censorship to executions
6. Update position state
7. Compute metrics (PnL, costs, etc.)
8. Build logs with propensities
9. Construct censored observation
10. Compute reward
Args:
action: Price vector for all instruments
propensity: P(action | behavior policy) for OPE logging
Returns:
StepResult containing observation, reward, metrics, logs, and hidden state
"""
self._t += 1
cfg = self.cfg
# 1. apply quote from action
self._quote = Quote(prices=action, propensity=propensity,
metadata={'prev_prices': self._prev_prices})
self._quote = self.mechanism.apply_quote(self._quote, self.instruments, self._rng)
self._prev_prices = self._quote.prices.copy()
self._hidden.quote_history.append(self._quote.prices.copy())
# 2. update market/competitors
if self.market:
self._market_state = self.market.step(self._t, self._quote, self._hidden, self._rng)
self._hidden.market_history.append(self._market_state)
# 3. generate arrivals
opps = self.arrival.sample(self._t, cfg.dt, self.instruments,
self._market_state, self._hidden, self._rng)
# 4. process opportunities -> executions
executions: list[Execution] = []
events: list[StepEvent] = []
true_demand = np.zeros(self.instruments.n)
for opp in opps:
# log exposure
if cfg.log_level == LogLevel.FULL:
events.append(StepEvent(t=opp.t, type=EventType.EXPOSURE,
instrument_id=opp.instrument_id,
opportunity_id=opp.id,
price=float(self._quote.prices[opp.instrument_id]),
propensity=self._quote.propensity))
# check acceptance
prob = self.execution.prob(opp, self._quote, self.instruments,
self._market_state, self._rng)
if self._rng.random() < prob:
# create execution
exe = self.mechanism.process_opportunity(opp, self._quote, self.instruments,
self._market_state, self._rng)
if exe:
true_demand[exe.instrument_id] += exe.size_requested
# apply position censorship
exe = self.position.apply_execution(exe)
executions.append(exe)
if cfg.log_level == LogLevel.FULL:
events.append(StepEvent(t=exe.t, type=EventType.EXECUTION,
instrument_id=exe.instrument_id,
opportunity_id=exe.opportunity_id,
price=exe.price, size=exe.size_filled,
propensity=exe.propensity))
# 5. update position state
self.position.step(self._t)
self.instruments.position = self.position.position
# 6. compute metrics
censored_fills = np.zeros(self.instruments.n)
revenue = 0.0
cost = 0.0
spread_capture = 0.0
for exe in executions:
censored_fills[exe.instrument_id] += exe.size_filled
if exe.side == Side.BUY:
revenue += exe.price * exe.size_filled
cost += self.instruments.costs[exe.instrument_id] * exe.size_filled
else:
revenue -= exe.price * exe.size_filled
cost -= self.instruments.costs[exe.instrument_id] * exe.size_filled
# spread capture for market making
if self._quote.spreads is not None and self._market_state and self._market_state.mid_prices is not None:
mid = self._market_state.mid_prices[exe.instrument_id]
if exe.side == Side.BUY:
spread_capture += (exe.price - mid) * exe.size_filled
else:
spread_capture += (mid - exe.price) * exe.size_filled
pnl = revenue - cost
units = float(np.sum(censored_fills))
lost = float(np.sum(true_demand - censored_fills))
# volatility
volatility = 0.0
if len(self._hidden.quote_history) > 1:
prev = self._hidden.quote_history[-2]
volatility = float(np.mean(np.abs(self._quote.prices - prev) / (prev + 1e-8)))
metrics = StepMetrics(
pnl=pnl, revenue=revenue, cost=cost, units_traded=units,
position_cost=self.position.holding_cost,
lost_opportunity=self.position.shortage_cost + lost * np.mean(self._quote.prices) * 0.1,
spread_capture=spread_capture, volatility=volatility,
conversion=units / (len(opps) + 1e-8),
per_instrument={'fills': censored_fills, 'demand': true_demand}
)
# 7. build logs
logs = StepLogs(
events=events if cfg.log_level == LogLevel.FULL else None,
executions=executions if cfg.log_level == LogLevel.FULL else None,
aggregates={'n_arrivals': len(opps), 'n_executions': len(executions),
'exposures': np.bincount([o.instrument_id for o in opps],
minlength=self.instruments.n).astype(float)},
true_demand=true_demand,
censored_fills=censored_fills
)
# 8. build observation
obs = self.obs_builder.build(self._quote, self.instruments, logs, metrics,
self._market_state, self._hidden, cfg.mask_demand, self._t)
# 9. compute reward
reward = self.objective.reward(self._quote, self.instruments, metrics, self._hidden, obs)
breakdown = self.objective.breakdown(self._quote, self.instruments, metrics, self._hidden, obs)
# print(f"Step {self._t}: Reward={reward:.2f}, Breakdown={breakdown}")
# 10. check termination
terminated = self._t >= cfg.max_steps
truncated = False
info = {'true_demand': true_demand, 'breakdown': self.objective.breakdown(
self._quote, self.instruments, metrics, self._hidden, obs)}
return StepResult(obs=obs, reward=reward, terminated=terminated, truncated=truncated,
info=info, metrics=metrics, logs=logs, hidden=self._hidden)

View File

@@ -1,297 +0,0 @@
"""
Protocol definitions for pluggable simulator components.
This module defines the interfaces (Protocols) that allow swapping different
implementations for each stage of the Quote -> Arrival -> Execution -> Position
pipeline. All protocols use structural subtyping (duck typing).
Protocols:
Mechanism: How quotes translate to executions (posted price, two-sided, auction)
ArrivalModel: How opportunities arrive (Poisson, Hawkes, sessions)
ExecutionModel: Acceptance probability given quote (elasticity, intensity)
PositionModel: Inventory/position management and censorship
MarketModel: Competitor/market dynamics
ObservationBuilder: Constructs agent observations with censoring
Objective: Computes reward from metrics
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from typing import Protocol, Any, TYPE_CHECKING
import numpy as np
if TYPE_CHECKING:
from .types import (Quote, Opportunity, Execution, InstrumentSet, StepLogs,
StepMetrics, HiddenState, Observation, MarketState)
from .constants import LogLevel
class Mechanism(Protocol):
"""Defines how quotes translate to executions.
The Mechanism is the core abstraction that differentiates pricing domains:
- PostedPrice: single price, buyer decides to purchase or not
- TwoSided: bid/ask spread, execution depends on distance from mid
- Auction: reserve price affects win probability and clearing price
Methods:
apply_quote: Enforce constraints and return valid quote
process_opportunity: Determine execution given opportunity and quote
"""
def apply_quote(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
rng: np.random.Generator) -> Quote:
"""Apply mechanism-specific constraints to a quote.
Args:
quote: Raw quote from policy
instruments: Current instrument set with costs/refs
rng: Random generator for stochastic constraints
Returns:
Constrained quote satisfying mechanism rules (min margin, max delta, etc.)
"""
...
def process_opportunity(self, opp: Opportunity, quote: Quote,
instruments: InstrumentSet, market: MarketState | None,
rng: np.random.Generator) -> Execution | None:
"""Process an opportunity against the current quote.
Args:
opp: Incoming opportunity (session, order, request)
quote: Current posted quote
instruments: Instrument set
market: Current market state (competitor prices, mid-prices)
rng: Random generator
Returns:
Execution if opportunity converts, None otherwise
"""
...
class ArrivalModel(Protocol):
"""Generates opportunities (demand arrivals) for each step.
Different arrival models capture different demand dynamics:
- Poisson: constant rate, memoryless
- Hawkes: self-exciting, clustered arrivals
- Session: retail browsing with multi-product views
Methods:
sample: Generate opportunities for a time interval
"""
def sample(self, t: float, dt: float, instruments: InstrumentSet,
market: MarketState | None, hidden: HiddenState,
rng: np.random.Generator) -> list[Opportunity]:
"""Sample opportunities for time interval [t, t+dt).
Args:
t: Current time
dt: Time interval length
instruments: Available instruments
market: Current market state
hidden: Hidden state (contains demand intensity, contamination)
rng: Random generator
Returns:
List of opportunities arriving in this interval
"""
...
class ExecutionModel(Protocol):
"""Computes acceptance/execution probability given quote and context.
Different models capture different demand responses:
- Elasticity: price sensitivity with competitor cross-effects
- Intensity: distance-based fill probability (market making)
- Logit: discrete choice model
Methods:
prob: Compute acceptance probability
uncensor: Estimate true demand from censored fills
"""
def prob(self, opp: Opportunity, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
market: MarketState | None, rng: np.random.Generator) -> float:
"""Compute probability that opportunity accepts the quote.
Args:
opp: Opportunity to evaluate
quote: Current quote
instruments: Instrument set
market: Market state (competitor prices affect cross-elasticity)
rng: Random generator
Returns:
Probability in [0, 1] that opportunity executes
"""
...
def uncensor(self, fills: np.ndarray, instruments: InstrumentSet,
context: dict[str, Any] | None = None) -> np.ndarray:
"""Estimate true demand from censored fills.
Used for demand estimation research under inventory censorship.
Args:
fills: Observed (censored) fill counts
instruments: Instrument set
context: Additional context (exposures, prices shown)
Returns:
Estimated true demand counts
"""
...
class PositionModel(Protocol):
"""Manages inventory (retail) or position (finance).
Handles:
- Position constraints and censorship
- Holding costs (retail) or inventory risk (finance)
- Replenishment and order receipt
Methods:
reset: Initialize position state
available: Query available capacity for a trade
apply_execution: Censor execution by available position
step: Process time-based updates (replenishment, holding cost)
Properties:
position: Current position vector
holding_cost: Cost incurred this step from holding position
"""
def reset(self, instruments: InstrumentSet, rng: np.random.Generator) -> None:
"""Initialize position state for new episode."""
...
def available(self, instrument_id: int, side: Any) -> float:
"""Query available capacity for a trade.
Args:
instrument_id: Which instrument
side: BUY or SELL
Returns:
Maximum tradeable size given current position
"""
...
def apply_execution(self, exe: Execution) -> Execution:
"""Apply position constraints to an execution.
Args:
exe: Proposed execution with size_requested
Returns:
Censored execution with size_filled <= available capacity
"""
...
def step(self, t: float) -> None:
"""Process time-based position updates.
Handles replenishment receipt, holding cost calculation, etc.
"""
...
@property
def position(self) -> np.ndarray:
"""Current position vector (positive=long/inventory, negative=short)."""
...
@property
def holding_cost(self) -> float:
"""Holding cost incurred this step."""
...
class MarketModel(Protocol):
"""Models external market dynamics and competitor behavior.
For retail: competitor price dynamics (static, reactive, stochastic)
For finance: mid-price process (GBM, mean-reverting)
Methods:
step: Update market state given agent's quotes
"""
def step(self, t: float, self_quotes: Quote, hidden: HiddenState,
rng: np.random.Generator) -> MarketState:
"""Update market state for this timestep.
Args:
t: Current time
self_quotes: Agent's current quotes (competitors may react)
hidden: Hidden state (regime info)
rng: Random generator
Returns:
Updated market state with competitor prices, mid-prices, volatility
"""
...
class ObservationBuilder(Protocol):
"""Constructs agent observations with appropriate censoring.
Critical for research: ensures agent only sees censored fills,
never true demand (which goes in info dict).
Methods:
build: Construct observation from step data
"""
def build(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet, logs: StepLogs,
metrics: StepMetrics, market: MarketState | None,
hidden: HiddenState, mask_demand: bool, t: int) -> Observation:
"""Build observation for agent.
Args:
quote: Current quote
instruments: Instrument set with positions
logs: Step logs with true_demand and censored_fills
metrics: Computed metrics
market: Market state
hidden: Hidden state (not included in obs)
mask_demand: If True, exclude true demand from observation
t: Current timestep
Returns:
Observation containing only observable quantities
"""
...
class Objective(Protocol):
"""Computes reward from step metrics.
Supports composite objectives with weighted terms:
- PnL (profit)
- Position costs (holding, inventory risk)
- Lost opportunity (stockouts)
- Volatility penalty (UX)
- Spread capture (market making)
Methods:
reward: Compute scalar reward
breakdown: Get per-term contribution for analysis
"""
def reward(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState,
obs: Observation) -> float:
"""Compute scalar reward for this step.
Args:
quote: Current quote
instruments: Instrument set
metrics: Step metrics (pnl, costs, etc.)
hidden: Hidden state
obs: Agent observation
Returns:
Scalar reward value
"""
...
def breakdown(self, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
metrics: StepMetrics, hidden: HiddenState,
obs: Observation) -> dict[str, float]:
"""Get reward breakdown by component.
Useful for analyzing which terms dominate the reward.
Returns:
Dict mapping term names to their contributions
"""
...

View File

@@ -1,151 +0,0 @@
"""
Inventory/position management and instrument factories.
This module provides:
- PositionConfig: Configuration for position constraints and costs
- PositionModel: Manages inventory (retail) or position (finance)
- make_instruments: Factory for creating instrument sets
The PositionModel handles demand censorship by limiting executions
to available inventory, computing holding costs, and managing replenishment.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
import numpy as np
from .types import Instrument, InstrumentSet, Execution
from .constants import Side, InstrumentType
@dataclass
class PositionConfig:
"""Configuration for position/inventory management.
Attributes:
initial_position: Starting inventory (None = unlimited, float = same for all)
max_position: Maximum long position per instrument
min_position: Maximum short position (negative, for finance)
holding_cost_rate: Cost per unit per step for holding inventory
shortage_cost_rate: Opportunity cost rate for stockouts
lead_time: Steps until replenishment orders arrive
"""
initial_position: np.ndarray | float | None = None
max_position: float = 1000.0
min_position: float = -1000.0
holding_cost_rate: float = 0.001
shortage_cost_rate: float = 0.05
lead_time: int = 0
@dataclass
class PositionModel:
"""Manages inventory (retail) or position (finance) with censorship.
Key responsibilities:
- Track current position per instrument
- Censor executions when position is insufficient
- Compute holding costs per step
- Track shortage/stockout costs
- Handle replenishment orders with lead time
For retail: position is inventory (positive), selling reduces it
For finance: position can be positive (long) or negative (short)
"""
cfg: PositionConfig
n: int = 0
_position: np.ndarray = field(default_factory=lambda: np.array([]))
_pending_orders: list[tuple[int, np.ndarray]] = field(default_factory=list)
_step_holding_cost: float = 0.0
_step_shortage_cost: float = 0.0
def reset(self, instruments: InstrumentSet, rng: np.random.Generator) -> None:
self.n = instruments.n
if self.cfg.initial_position is None:
self._position = np.full(self.n, np.inf) # unlimited
elif isinstance(self.cfg.initial_position, (int, float)):
self._position = np.full(self.n, float(self.cfg.initial_position))
else:
self._position = self.cfg.initial_position.copy().astype(np.float64)
self._pending_orders = []
self._step_holding_cost = 0.0
self._step_shortage_cost = 0.0
def available(self, instrument_id: int, side: Side) -> float:
pos = self._position[instrument_id]
if np.isinf(pos): return np.inf
if side == Side.BUY:
return max(0, pos) # can sell up to current inventory
else:
return max(0, self.cfg.max_position - pos) # can buy up to max
def apply_execution(self, exe: Execution) -> Execution:
idx = int(exe.instrument_id)
avail = self.available(idx, exe.side)
filled = min(exe.size_requested, avail)
shortage = exe.size_requested - filled
if exe.side == Side.BUY:
self._position[idx] -= filled # sold from inventory
else:
self._position[idx] += filled # bought into inventory
if shortage > 0:
self._step_shortage_cost += shortage * exe.price * self.cfg.shortage_cost_rate
return Execution(
opportunity_id=exe.opportunity_id, instrument_id=exe.instrument_id,
side=exe.side, size_requested=exe.size_requested,
size_filled=filled, price=exe.price, propensity=exe.propensity, t=exe.t
)
def order(self, quantity: np.ndarray) -> None:
if self.cfg.lead_time > 0:
self._pending_orders.append((self.cfg.lead_time, quantity.copy()))
else:
self._position += quantity
def step(self, t: float) -> None:
# compute holding cost
pos = np.where(np.isinf(self._position), 0, self._position)
self._step_holding_cost = float(np.sum(np.abs(pos)) * self.cfg.holding_cost_rate)
# receive pending orders
new_pending = []
for (remaining, qty) in self._pending_orders:
if remaining <= 1:
self._position += qty
else:
new_pending.append((remaining - 1, qty))
self._pending_orders = new_pending
@property
def position(self) -> np.ndarray:
return np.where(np.isinf(self._position), -1, self._position)
@property
def holding_cost(self) -> float:
return self._step_holding_cost
@property
def shortage_cost(self) -> float:
return self._step_shortage_cost
def make_instruments(n: int, cost_range: tuple[float, float] = (1.0, 10.0),
margin_range: tuple[float, float] = (0.2, 0.5),
inst_type: InstrumentType = InstrumentType.SKU,
rng: np.random.Generator | None = None) -> InstrumentSet:
"""Factory function to create a random instrument set.
Args:
n: Number of instruments to create
cost_range: (min, max) for uniform cost sampling
margin_range: (min, max) for uniform margin sampling
inst_type: Type of instruments (SKU, ASSET, etc.)
rng: Random generator (uses default if None)
Returns:
InstrumentSet with n instruments having random costs and margins
"""
rng = rng or np.random.default_rng()
costs = rng.uniform(*cost_range, n)
margins = rng.uniform(*margin_range, n)
items = [Instrument(id=i, type=inst_type, cost_basis=c, reference_price=c*(1+m))
for i, (c, m) in enumerate(zip(costs, margins))]
return InstrumentSet(instruments=items)

View File

@@ -1,318 +0,0 @@
"""
Core data types for the Quote-Control simulator.
This module defines the fundamental data structures used throughout the platform:
- Identifiers (InstrumentId, OpportunityId, AgentId)
- Domain objects (Instrument, Quote, Opportunity, Execution)
- Logging structures (StepEvent, StepLogs, StepMetrics)
- State containers (MarketState, HiddenState, Observation, StepResult)
All dataclasses are designed to be serializable and numpy-compatible.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from typing import Any, NewType
import numpy as np
from .constants import Side, InstrumentType, OpportunityType, EventType
InstrumentId = NewType('InstrumentId', int) # unique instrument index
OpportunityId = NewType('OpportunityId', str) # unique opportunity/session ID
AgentId = NewType('AgentId', str) # unique agent/actor ID
@dataclass
class Instrument:
"""Represents a priceable entity in the simulation.
An instrument can be a retail SKU, financial asset, loan product, or subscription.
The cost_basis represents the fundamental value (marginal cost for retail,
mid-price for assets, funding rate for loans).
Attributes:
id: Unique identifier for this instrument
type: Category of instrument (SKU, ASSET, LOAN, SUBSCRIPTION)
cost_basis: Fundamental cost or value (marginal cost, mid-price, funding rate)
reference_price: Base or fair price used for action scaling
attrs: Additional attributes (quality score, category, volatility, etc.)
"""
id: InstrumentId
type: InstrumentType
cost_basis: float
reference_price: float
attrs: dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
@dataclass
class InstrumentSet:
"""Collection of instruments with optional position tracking.
Provides vectorized access to instrument properties for efficient computation.
Position can be positive (long/inventory) or negative (short) for financial assets.
Attributes:
instruments: List of Instrument objects
position: Current position per instrument (None = unlimited capacity)
Properties:
n: Number of instruments
costs: Vector of cost bases
refs: Vector of reference prices
"""
instruments: list[Instrument]
position: np.ndarray | None = None
@property
def n(self) -> int: return len(self.instruments)
@property
def costs(self) -> np.ndarray: return np.array([i.cost_basis for i in self.instruments], np.float32)
@property
def refs(self) -> np.ndarray: return np.array([i.reference_price for i in self.instruments], np.float32)
@dataclass
class Quote:
"""Price quote set by the policy - the action in the MDP.
Supports multiple quoting mechanisms:
- Posted price: only `prices` field used
- Two-sided: `prices` as mid, `spreads` for bid-ask width
- Auction: `prices` as reserve prices
The propensity field is critical for off-policy evaluation (OPE).
Attributes:
prices: Posted prices (retail) or mid-quotes (market making)
spreads: Bid-ask spread width for two-sided quoting (None for posted price)
propensity: P(this quote | behavior policy) for importance sampling
metadata: Additional info (prev_prices for delta constraints, etc.)
Properties:
bids: Computed bid prices (mid - spread/2)
asks: Computed ask prices (mid + spread/2)
"""
prices: np.ndarray
spreads: np.ndarray | None = None
propensity: float = 1.0
metadata: dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
@property
def bids(self) -> np.ndarray | None:
return self.prices - self.spreads/2 if self.spreads is not None else None
@property
def asks(self) -> np.ndarray | None:
return self.prices + self.spreads/2 if self.spreads is not None else None
@dataclass
class Opportunity:
"""An arrival event that may result in a transaction.
Opportunities are the demand side of the simulation:
- Retail: browsing session with purchase intent
- Market making: incoming market order
- Lending: loan application
The context dict carries segment/type information used by execution models.
Attributes:
id: Unique identifier for this opportunity
type: Category (SESSION, MARKET_ORDER, REQUEST)
side: BUY or SELL intent
instrument_id: Which instrument the opportunity targets
size: Requested transaction size (units, shares, principal)
t: Arrival timestamp
context: Segment info (is_scraper, credit_score, urgency, etc.)
"""
id: OpportunityId
type: OpportunityType
side: Side
instrument_id: InstrumentId
size: float = 1.0
t: float = 0.0
context: dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
@dataclass
class Execution:
"""A realized transaction after acceptance and position censorship.
The difference between size_requested and size_filled represents
censored demand due to inventory/position constraints.
Attributes:
opportunity_id: Links back to the originating Opportunity
instrument_id: Which instrument was traded
side: BUY or SELL
size_requested: Original requested size (true demand)
size_filled: Actual filled size after censorship
price: Execution price
propensity: Combined propensity for OPE (quote * acceptance)
t: Execution timestamp
"""
opportunity_id: OpportunityId
instrument_id: InstrumentId
side: Side
size_requested: float
size_filled: float
price: float
propensity: float = 1.0
t: float = 0.0
@dataclass
class StepEvent:
"""Generic logged event"""
t: float
type: EventType
instrument_id: InstrumentId | None = None
opportunity_id: OpportunityId | None = None
price: float | None = None
size: float | None = None
propensity: float = 1.0
metadata: dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
@dataclass
class StepLogs:
"""Container for all logging data from a simulation step.
Supports both detailed event logging (for OPE) and aggregate-only mode
(for fast simulation). The true_demand vs censored_fills distinction
is critical for research on demand estimation under censorship.
Attributes:
events: Detailed event log (None if LogLevel != FULL)
executions: List of executed transactions (None if LogLevel != FULL)
aggregates: Always-available aggregate statistics
true_demand: Oracle demand before censorship (for research, not in obs)
censored_fills: Realized fills after position constraints (observable)
"""
events: list[StepEvent] | None = None
executions: list[Execution] | None = None
aggregates: dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
true_demand: np.ndarray | None = None
censored_fills: np.ndarray | None = None
@dataclass
class StepMetrics:
"""Computed metrics for a single simulation step.
Metrics are domain-aware: retail uses revenue/cost/holding_cost,
market making uses spread_capture and inventory risk.
Attributes:
pnl: Profit and loss (revenue - cost for retail, mark-to-market for finance)
revenue: Gross revenue from sales/executions
cost: Cost of goods sold or position acquisition cost
units_traded: Total units/shares transacted
position_cost: Holding cost (retail) or inventory risk penalty (finance)
lost_opportunity: Cost of stockouts or missed fills
spread_capture: Bid-ask spread captured (market making)
volatility: Price volatility metric for UX consideration
conversion: Fill rate (executions / opportunities)
per_instrument: Per-instrument breakdowns (fills, demand, etc.)
"""
pnl: float = 0.0
revenue: float = 0.0
cost: float = 0.0
units_traded: float = 0.0
position_cost: float = 0.0
lost_opportunity: float = 0.0
spread_capture: float = 0.0
volatility: float = 0.0
conversion: float = 0.0
per_instrument: dict[str, np.ndarray] = field(default_factory=dict)
@dataclass
class MarketState:
"""External market conditions and competitor state.
For retail: competitor_quotes drives cross-elasticity effects.
For finance: mid_prices and volatility drive execution dynamics.
Attributes:
competitor_quotes: Competitor posted prices (retail)
mid_prices: Market mid-prices for assets (finance)
volatility: Per-instrument volatility estimate
regime: Market regime identifier (normal, price_war, high_vol, etc.)
t: Timestamp of this market state
"""
competitor_quotes: np.ndarray | None = None
mid_prices: np.ndarray | None = None
volatility: np.ndarray | None = None
regime: str = 'normal'
t: float = 0.0
@dataclass
class HiddenState:
"""Internal simulator state not exposed to the agent.
Contains oracle information for research analysis and
history needed for non-stationary dynamics.
Attributes:
true_demand_intensity: Latent demand multiplier
contamination: Fraction of arrivals that are adversarial/scraper
regime: Current market/competitor regime
quote_history: History of agent quotes for volatility calculation
market_history: History of market states for analysis
"""
true_demand_intensity: float = 1.0
contamination: float = 0.0
regime: str = 'normal'
quote_history: list[np.ndarray] = field(default_factory=list)
market_history: list[MarketState] = field(default_factory=list)
@dataclass
class Observation:
"""Observable state provided to the agent - censored view only.
Critical invariant: Observation never contains true_demand, only
censored fills. This enforces the censorship research setting.
Attributes:
quotes: Current posted quotes (the agent's last action)
position: Current inventory/position state
fills: Censored execution counts per instrument
exposures: Opportunity exposure counts per instrument
market: Observable market state (competitor prices, volatility)
t: Current timestep
extra: Additional observable features
Methods:
to_flat: Flatten to numpy array for gym compatibility
"""
quotes: np.ndarray
position: np.ndarray | None
fills: np.ndarray
exposures: np.ndarray
market: MarketState | None
t: int
extra: dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
def to_flat(self) -> np.ndarray:
"""Flatten observation to 1D numpy array for gym environments."""
parts = [self.quotes, self.fills, self.exposures]
if self.position is not None: parts.append(self.position)
if self.market and self.market.competitor_quotes is not None:
parts.append(self.market.competitor_quotes)
return np.concatenate([p.flatten() for p in parts])
@dataclass
class StepResult:
"""Complete result from a simulation step.
Follows gymnasium convention for obs, reward, terminated, truncated, info.
Additionally provides metrics, logs, and hidden state for research.
Attributes:
obs: Observable state (censored)
reward: Scalar reward from objective function
terminated: Episode ended naturally (max_steps reached)
truncated: Episode ended early (bankruptcy, constraint violation)
info: Additional info dict (contains true_demand for research)
metrics: Computed metrics for this step
logs: Event logs and aggregates
hidden: Internal simulator state (oracle info)
"""
obs: Observation
reward: float
terminated: bool
truncated: bool
info: dict[str, Any]
metrics: StepMetrics
logs: StepLogs
hidden: HiddenState

View File

@@ -1,10 +0,0 @@
from .arrivals import PoissonArrivalModel, HawkesArrivalModel, SessionArrivalModel
from .execution import ElasticityExecutionModel, IntensityExecutionModel, LogitExecutionModel
from .competitors import (StaticCompetitorModel, ReactiveCompetitorModel,
StochasticCompetitorModel, GBMMarketModel)
__all__ = [
'PoissonArrivalModel', 'HawkesArrivalModel', 'SessionArrivalModel',
'ElasticityExecutionModel', 'IntensityExecutionModel', 'LogitExecutionModel',
'StaticCompetitorModel', 'ReactiveCompetitorModel', 'StochasticCompetitorModel', 'GBMMarketModel',
]

View File

@@ -1,168 +0,0 @@
"""
Arrival models for generating demand opportunities.
This module provides different arrival processes:
- PoissonArrivalModel: Constant-rate memoryless arrivals
- HawkesArrivalModel: Self-exciting clustered arrivals (market orders)
- SessionArrivalModel: Retail browsing sessions with multi-product views
Each model implements the ArrivalModel protocol and generates Opportunity objects
that flow through the execution pipeline.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass
from typing import Callable
import numpy as np
from uuid import uuid4
from ..outlet.types import Opportunity, InstrumentSet, MarketState, HiddenState
from ..outlet.constants import Side, OpportunityType
from ..outlet.math_util import poisson_arrivals, hawkes_intensity
@dataclass
class PoissonArrivalConfig:
"""Configuration for Poisson arrival process.
Attributes:
base_rate: Expected arrivals per unit time (scaled by hidden.true_demand_intensity)
side_probs: Probability distribution over BUY/SELL sides
"""
base_rate: float = 10.0
side_probs: dict[Side, float] = None
def __post_init__(self):
if self.side_probs is None:
self.side_probs = {Side.BUY: 1.0}
class PoissonArrivalModel:
"""Homogeneous Poisson arrival process.
Generates arrivals at a constant rate (modulated by demand intensity).
Suitable for stationary demand or as a baseline model.
The actual arrival count follows Poisson(rate * dt * intensity).
"""
def __init__(self, cfg: PoissonArrivalConfig | None = None):
self.cfg = cfg or PoissonArrivalConfig()
def sample(self, t: float, dt: float, instruments: InstrumentSet,
market: MarketState | None, hidden: HiddenState,
rng: np.random.Generator) -> list[Opportunity]:
n_arrivals = poisson_arrivals(self.cfg.base_rate * hidden.true_demand_intensity, dt, rng)
opps = []
for _ in range(n_arrivals):
inst_id = rng.integers(0, instruments.n)
side = rng.choice(list(self.cfg.side_probs.keys()),
p=list(self.cfg.side_probs.values()))
opps.append(Opportunity(
id=str(uuid4())[:8], type=OpportunityType.SESSION,
side=side, instrument_id=inst_id, size=1.0, t=t,
context={'segment': 'default'}
))
return opps
@dataclass
class HawkesArrivalConfig:
"""Configuration for Hawkes self-exciting process.
Attributes:
base_rate: Baseline arrival intensity
alpha: Excitation strength (how much each arrival increases intensity)
beta: Decay rate (how quickly excitation fades)
side_probs: Probability distribution over BUY/SELL sides
"""
base_rate: float = 5.0
alpha: float = 0.5
beta: float = 1.0
side_probs: dict[Side, float] = None
def __post_init__(self):
if self.side_probs is None:
self.side_probs = {Side.BUY: 0.5, Side.SELL: 0.5}
class HawkesArrivalModel:
"""Self-exciting Hawkes point process for clustered arrivals.
Models order flow where arrivals cluster in time (momentum, herding).
Intensity: lambda(t) = base + alpha * sum(exp(-beta * (t - t_i)))
Used for market making scenarios where orders arrive in bursts.
"""
def __init__(self, cfg: HawkesArrivalConfig | None = None):
self.cfg = cfg or HawkesArrivalConfig()
self._history: np.ndarray = np.array([])
def sample(self, t: float, dt: float, instruments: InstrumentSet,
market: MarketState | None, hidden: HiddenState,
rng: np.random.Generator) -> list[Opportunity]:
intensity = hawkes_intensity(
self.cfg.base_rate * hidden.true_demand_intensity,
self._history, self.cfg.alpha, self.cfg.beta, t
)
n_arrivals = poisson_arrivals(intensity, dt, rng)
opps = []
for i in range(n_arrivals):
arr_t = t + rng.uniform(0, dt)
self._history = np.append(self._history, arr_t)
inst_id = rng.integers(0, instruments.n)
side = rng.choice(list(self.cfg.side_probs.keys()),
p=list(self.cfg.side_probs.values()))
opps.append(Opportunity(
id=str(uuid4())[:8], type=OpportunityType.MARKET_ORDER,
side=side, instrument_id=inst_id,
size=rng.exponential(1.0), t=arr_t,
context={'intensity': intensity}
))
# decay old history
self._history = self._history[self._history > t - 10]
return opps
@dataclass
class SessionArrivalConfig:
"""Configuration for retail session arrivals.
Attributes:
sessions_per_step: Number of browsing sessions per step
views_per_session: (min, max) product views per session
contamination: Fraction of sessions that are scrapers/bots
"""
sessions_per_step: int = 20
views_per_session: tuple[int, int] = (1, 5)
contamination: float = 0.0
class SessionArrivalModel:
"""Retail browsing session model with multi-product views.
Each session views multiple products, generating one opportunity per view.
Scraper sessions (controlled by contamination) view more products
but convert at lower rates (handled by ExecutionModel).
"""
def __init__(self, cfg: SessionArrivalConfig | None = None):
self.cfg = cfg or SessionArrivalConfig()
def sample(self, t: float, dt: float, instruments: InstrumentSet,
market: MarketState | None, hidden: HiddenState,
rng: np.random.Generator) -> list[Opportunity]:
n_sessions = self.cfg.sessions_per_step
contamination = hidden.contamination if hidden else self.cfg.contamination
opps = []
for _ in range(n_sessions):
is_scraper = rng.random() < contamination
n_views = rng.integers(*self.cfg.views_per_session)
sid = str(uuid4())[:8]
# scrapers view more products
if is_scraper:
n_views = min(instruments.n, n_views * 3)
viewed = rng.choice(instruments.n, size=min(n_views, instruments.n), replace=False)
for inst_id in viewed:
opps.append(Opportunity(
id=f"{sid}-{inst_id}", type=OpportunityType.SESSION,
side=Side.BUY, instrument_id=int(inst_id), size=1.0, t=t,
context={'session_id': sid, 'is_scraper': is_scraper, 'n_views': n_views}
))
return opps

View File

@@ -1,189 +0,0 @@
"""
Market and competitor models for external dynamics.
This module provides models for competitor pricing (retail) and market dynamics (finance):
- StaticCompetitorModel: Fixed competitor prices
- ReactiveCompetitorModel: Competitor reacts to agent's prices, can trigger price wars
- StochasticCompetitorModel: Random walk competitor prices
- GBMMarketModel: Geometric Brownian Motion for asset mid-prices
Each model implements the MarketModel protocol.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass
import numpy as np
from ..outlet.types import Quote, MarketState, HiddenState
from ..outlet.math_util import clamp, ema
@dataclass
class StaticCompetitorConfig:
"""Configuration for static competitor.
Attributes:
markup: Fixed percentage markup over reference prices
"""
markup: float = 0.1
class StaticCompetitorModel:
"""Static competitor with fixed markup pricing.
Competitor prices = reference * (1 + markup).
Useful as a baseline or for testing without competitor dynamics.
"""
def __init__(self, cfg: StaticCompetitorConfig | None = None, refs: np.ndarray | None = None):
self.cfg = cfg or StaticCompetitorConfig()
self.refs = refs
def step(self, t: float, self_quotes: Quote, hidden: HiddenState,
rng: np.random.Generator) -> MarketState:
refs = self.refs if self.refs is not None else self_quotes.prices
comp_prices = refs * (1 + self.cfg.markup)
return MarketState(competitor_quotes=comp_prices, regime='static', t=t)
@dataclass
class ReactiveCompetitorConfig:
"""Configuration for reactive competitor.
Attributes:
follow_weight: Smoothing weight for price following (0=ignore, 1=instant)
band_pct: Maximum deviation from reference prices
war_threshold: Relative price diff that triggers price war
war_aggression: How much competitor cuts prices during war
"""
follow_weight: float = 0.3
band_pct: float = 0.1
war_threshold: float = -0.15
war_aggression: float = 0.2
class ReactiveCompetitorModel:
"""Competitor that reacts to agent's prices with price war dynamics.
The competitor follows the agent's prices with smoothing.
If the agent undercuts significantly (beyond war_threshold),
a price war is triggered where the competitor becomes more aggressive.
This creates non-stationary dynamics that test policy robustness.
"""
def __init__(self, cfg: ReactiveCompetitorConfig | None = None, refs: np.ndarray | None = None):
self.cfg = cfg or ReactiveCompetitorConfig()
self.refs = refs
self._prices: np.ndarray | None = None
self._in_war: bool = False
def step(self, t: float, self_quotes: Quote, hidden: HiddenState,
rng: np.random.Generator) -> MarketState:
refs = self.refs if self.refs is not None else self_quotes.prices
c = self.cfg
if self._prices is None:
self._prices = refs.copy()
# check for price war trigger
relative_diff = (self_quotes.prices - self._prices) / (self._prices + 1e-8)
if np.any(relative_diff < c.war_threshold):
self._in_war = True
elif np.all(relative_diff > -c.war_threshold / 2):
self._in_war = False
# update prices
if self._in_war:
target = self_quotes.prices * (1 - c.war_aggression)
hidden.regime = 'price_war'
else:
target = self_quotes.prices * (1 + c.follow_weight * 0.05)
hidden.regime = 'normal'
# follow with smoothing
new_prices = np.array([ema(old, new, c.follow_weight)
for old, new in zip(self._prices, target)])
# stay within band
new_prices = clamp(new_prices, refs * (1 - c.band_pct), refs * (1 + c.band_pct))
self._prices = new_prices
return MarketState(competitor_quotes=new_prices, regime=hidden.regime, t=t)
@dataclass
class StochasticCompetitorConfig:
"""Configuration for stochastic competitor.
Attributes:
drift: Price drift per step
volatility: Price volatility (std of random shocks)
mean_revert: Mean reversion strength toward reference
"""
drift: float = 0.0
volatility: float = 0.02
mean_revert: float = 0.1
class StochasticCompetitorModel:
"""Ornstein-Uhlenbeck style stochastic competitor prices.
Prices follow: dP = drift + mean_revert*(ref - P) + volatility*P*dW
Provides non-stationary competitor dynamics independent of agent actions.
Useful for testing robustness to market noise.
"""
def __init__(self, cfg: StochasticCompetitorConfig | None = None, refs: np.ndarray | None = None):
self.cfg = cfg or StochasticCompetitorConfig()
self.refs = refs
self._prices: np.ndarray | None = None
def step(self, t: float, self_quotes: Quote, hidden: HiddenState,
rng: np.random.Generator) -> MarketState:
refs = self.refs if self.refs is not None else self_quotes.prices
c = self.cfg
if self._prices is None:
self._prices = refs.copy()
# Ornstein-Uhlenbeck style dynamics
n = len(self._prices)
noise = rng.normal(0, c.volatility, n)
reversion = c.mean_revert * (refs - self._prices)
self._prices = self._prices + c.drift + reversion + noise * self._prices
self._prices = np.maximum(self._prices, refs * 0.5)
return MarketState(competitor_quotes=self._prices.copy(), regime='stochastic', t=t)
@dataclass
class GBMMarketConfig:
"""Configuration for GBM market model.
Attributes:
mu: Price drift (expected return)
sigma: Price volatility
dt: Time step size
"""
mu: float = 0.0
sigma: float = 0.1
dt: float = 1.0
class GBMMarketModel:
"""Geometric Brownian Motion model for asset mid-prices.
Standard Black-Scholes dynamics: dS = mu*S*dt + sigma*S*dW
Used for market making scenarios where the underlying asset price
follows a random walk. The agent quotes around this moving mid-price.
"""
def __init__(self, cfg: GBMMarketConfig | None = None, initial: np.ndarray | None = None):
self.cfg = cfg or GBMMarketConfig()
self._mids = initial
def step(self, t: float, self_quotes: Quote, hidden: HiddenState,
rng: np.random.Generator) -> MarketState:
if self._mids is None:
self._mids = self_quotes.prices.copy()
c = self.cfg
n = len(self._mids)
z = rng.standard_normal(n)
self._mids = self._mids * np.exp((c.mu - 0.5*c.sigma**2)*c.dt + c.sigma*np.sqrt(c.dt)*z)
vol = np.full(n, c.sigma)
return MarketState(mid_prices=self._mids.copy(), volatility=vol, regime='gbm', t=t)

View File

@@ -1,174 +0,0 @@
"""
Execution models for computing acceptance/fill probabilities.
This module provides different models for how opportunities convert to executions:
- ElasticityExecutionModel: Price elasticity with competitor cross-effects (retail)
- IntensityExecutionModel: Distance-based fill intensity (market making)
- LogitExecutionModel: Discrete choice model
Each model implements the ExecutionModel protocol.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass
from typing import Any
import numpy as np
from ..outlet.types import Opportunity, Quote, InstrumentSet, MarketState
from ..outlet.constants import Side
from ..outlet.math_util import sigmoid, safe_log, intensity_decay, EPS
@dataclass
class ElasticityConfig:
"""Configuration for price elasticity execution model.
Attributes:
base_prob: Baseline purchase probability at reference price
price_sensitivity: Own-price elasticity coefficient
cross_elasticity: Competitor price cross-elasticity
scraper_conversion: Multiplier for scraper conversion (typically << 1)
"""
base_prob: float = 0.3
price_sensitivity: float = 2.0
cross_elasticity: float = 0.5
scraper_conversion: float = 0.01
class ElasticityExecutionModel:
"""Price elasticity model for retail dynamic pricing.
P(buy) = base_prob * exp(-sensitivity * log(price/ref)) * cross_effect * scraper_mult
Higher prices reduce purchase probability exponentially.
Competitor undercutting shifts demand away from the platform.
Scrapers convert at a much lower rate (reconnaissance, not purchase).
"""
def __init__(self, cfg: ElasticityConfig | None = None):
self.cfg = cfg or ElasticityConfig()
def prob(self, opp: Opportunity, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
market: MarketState | None, rng: np.random.Generator) -> float:
idx = int(opp.instrument_id)
price = quote.prices[idx]
ref = instruments.refs[idx]
# base probability adjusted by price ratio
log_ratio = safe_log(price / ref)
prob = self.cfg.base_prob * np.exp(-self.cfg.price_sensitivity * log_ratio)
# cross-elasticity: competitor undercutting increases their share
if market and market.competitor_quotes is not None:
comp_price = market.competitor_quotes[idx]
if comp_price < price:
prob *= np.exp(-self.cfg.cross_elasticity * (price - comp_price) / ref)
# scrapers convert at much lower rate
if opp.context.get('is_scraper', False):
prob *= self.cfg.scraper_conversion
return float(np.clip(prob, 0, 1))
def uncensor(self, fills: np.ndarray, instruments: InstrumentSet,
context: dict[str, Any] | None = None) -> np.ndarray:
# simple imputation: assume fills = prob * exposures, invert
exposures = context.get('exposures', fills) if context else fills
avg_prob = self.cfg.base_prob
return fills / (avg_prob + EPS)
@dataclass
class IntensityConfig:
"""Configuration for intensity-based execution model.
Attributes:
base_intensity: Baseline fill intensity
kappa: Decay rate with distance from mid-price
vol_scale: Volatility multiplier for fill intensity
"""
base_intensity: float = 1.0
kappa: float = 1.5
vol_scale: float = 0.5
class IntensityExecutionModel:
"""Avellaneda-Stoikov style fill intensity for market making.
Fill probability decays exponentially with distance from mid-price:
P(fill) = base * exp(-kappa * |quote - mid|) * (1 + vol_scale * sigma)
Tighter spreads (closer to mid) have higher fill probability.
Higher volatility increases fill probability (more aggressive traders).
"""
def __init__(self, cfg: IntensityConfig | None = None):
self.cfg = cfg or IntensityConfig()
def prob(self, opp: Opportunity, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
market: MarketState | None, rng: np.random.Generator) -> float:
idx = int(opp.instrument_id)
# get mid price from market or use quote price
if market and market.mid_prices is not None:
mid = market.mid_prices[idx]
else:
mid = quote.prices[idx]
# compute distance from mid
if opp.side == Side.BUY:
exec_price = quote.asks[idx] if quote.asks is not None else quote.prices[idx]
distance = exec_price - mid
else:
exec_price = quote.bids[idx] if quote.bids is not None else quote.prices[idx]
distance = mid - exec_price
# intensity decays with distance
intensity = self.cfg.base_intensity * intensity_decay(abs(distance), self.cfg.kappa)
# volatility increases fill probability
if market and market.volatility is not None:
vol = market.volatility[idx]
intensity *= (1 + self.cfg.vol_scale * vol)
return float(np.clip(intensity, 0, 1))
def uncensor(self, fills: np.ndarray, instruments: InstrumentSet,
context: dict[str, Any] | None = None) -> np.ndarray:
return fills # market making doesn't have same censorship concept
@dataclass
class LogitConfig:
"""Configuration for logit discrete choice model.
Attributes:
beta_0: Intercept (base utility)
beta_price: Price coefficient (typically negative)
beta_quality: Quality attribute coefficient
"""
beta_0: float = 0.5
beta_price: float = -1.5
beta_quality: float = 0.3
class LogitExecutionModel:
"""Discrete choice logit model for purchase probability.
Utility: U = beta_0 + beta_price * (price/ref) + beta_quality * quality
P(buy) = sigmoid(U)
Provides a theoretically grounded demand model from economics literature.
"""
def __init__(self, cfg: LogitConfig | None = None):
self.cfg = cfg or LogitConfig()
def prob(self, opp: Opportunity, quote: Quote, instruments: InstrumentSet,
market: MarketState | None, rng: np.random.Generator) -> float:
idx = int(opp.instrument_id)
price = quote.prices[idx]
ref = instruments.refs[idx]
quality = instruments.instruments[idx].attrs.get('quality', 0.5)
# utility
u = self.cfg.beta_0 + self.cfg.beta_price * (price / ref) + self.cfg.beta_quality * quality
# choice probability via sigmoid
return float(sigmoid(u))
def uncensor(self, fills: np.ndarray, instruments: InstrumentSet,
context: dict[str, Any] | None = None) -> np.ndarray:
return fills / (self.cfg.beta_0 + EPS)

View File

@@ -1,59 +0,0 @@
#!/usr/bin/env python
"""Example script demonstrating the Quote-Control platform"""
import sys
from pathlib import Path
sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).parent.parent))
import numpy as np
from lab.config import make_retail_platform, make_market_making_platform
from lab.experiments.eval import (rollout, compare_policies, fixed_price_policy,
cost_plus_margin_policy, random_walk_policy)
def demo_retail():
print("=" * 60)
print("RETAIL DYNAMIC PRICING DEMO")
print("=" * 60)
platform = make_retail_platform()
print(f"Instruments: {platform.instruments.n}")
print(f"Reference prices: {platform.instruments.refs[:5].round(2)}...")
# compare policies
policies = {
'fixed': fixed_price_policy(platform.instruments.refs),
'cost_plus_30%': cost_plus_margin_policy(platform.instruments.costs, 0.3),
'cost_plus_50%': cost_plus_margin_policy(platform.instruments.costs, 0.5),
'random_walk': random_walk_policy(platform.instruments.refs, 0.03),
}
results = compare_policies(platform, policies, n_steps=100, n_runs=3)
print("\nPolicy Comparison (100 steps, 3 runs):")
print("-" * 50)
for name, r in sorted(results.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1]['mean_pnl']):
print(f"{name:20s} PnL={r['mean_pnl']:8.1f} +/- {r['std_reward']:6.1f} "
f"conv={r['mean_conversion']:.3f}")
def demo_market_making():
print("\n" + "=" * 60)
print("MARKET MAKING DEMO")
print("=" * 60)
platform = make_market_making_platform()
print(f"Instruments: {platform.instruments.n}")
print(f"Initial mids: {platform.instruments.refs.round(2)}")
# simple policy: quote at mid with fixed spread
def mm_policy(obs: np.ndarray, t: int):
mids = platform.instruments.refs # would use obs in real policy
return mids, 1.0
result = rollout(platform, mm_policy, n_steps=200, seed=42)
print(f"\nRollout (200 steps):")
print(f" Total PnL: {result.total_pnl:.2f}")
print(f" Avg conversion: {result.avg_conversion:.3f}")
print(f" Total spread capture: {sum(m.spread_capture for m in result.metrics):.2f}")
if __name__ == '__main__':
demo_retail()
demo_market_making()

View File

@@ -2,11 +2,14 @@ import redis
import pickle
import json
import pandas as pd
from io import StringIO
from typing import Optional, Dict, Any
import os
import logging
log = logging.getLogger(__name__)
class ModelRegistry:
"""
Lightweight model registry using Redis for storing pricing models and elasticity data.
@@ -14,24 +17,23 @@ class ModelRegistry:
"""
def __init__(self, redis_host: str = None, redis_port: int = None):
host = redis_host or os.getenv('REDIS_HOST', 'localhost')
port = redis_port or int(os.getenv('REDIS_PORT', '6378'))
host = redis_host or os.getenv("REDIS_HOST", "localhost")
port = redis_port or int(os.getenv("REDIS_PORT", "6378"))
self.redis_client = redis.Redis(
host=host,
port=port,
db=0,
decode_responses=False
host=host, port=port, db=0, decode_responses=False
)
self.metadata_prefix = "model:meta:"
self.data_prefix = "model:data:"
self.elasticity_prefix = "elasticity:"
self.prices_prefix = "prices:"
def publish_elasticity(self,
elasticity_df: pd.DataFrame,
model_name: str = 'latest',
metadata: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None):
def publish_elasticity(
self,
elasticity_df: pd.DataFrame,
model_name: str = "latest",
metadata: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None,
):
"""
Store elasticity estimates in registry.
@@ -43,25 +45,29 @@ class ModelRegistry:
key = f"{self.elasticity_prefix}{model_name}"
# serialize dataframe as JSON
data_json = elasticity_df.to_json(orient='records')
data_json = elasticity_df.to_json(orient="records")
# store data
self.redis_client.set(key, data_json)
# store metadata
meta = metadata or {}
meta.update({
'n_products': len(elasticity_df),
'mean_elasticity': float(elasticity_df['elasticity'].mean()),
'model_type': 'elasticity_snapshot'
})
meta.update(
{
"n_products": len(elasticity_df),
"mean_elasticity": float(elasticity_df["elasticity"].mean()),
"model_type": "elasticity_snapshot",
}
)
meta_key = f"{self.metadata_prefix}{model_name}"
self.redis_client.set(meta_key, json.dumps(meta))
log.info(f"Published elasticity model '{model_name}' with {len(elasticity_df)} products")
log.info(
f"Published elasticity model '{model_name}' with {len(elasticity_df)} products"
)
def get_elasticity(self, model_name: str = 'latest') -> Optional[pd.DataFrame]:
def get_elasticity(self, model_name: str = "latest") -> Optional[pd.DataFrame]:
"""Retrieve elasticity estimates from registry."""
key = f"{self.elasticity_prefix}{model_name}"
data_json = self.redis_client.get(key)
@@ -71,14 +77,16 @@ class ModelRegistry:
# decode bytes to string if needed
if isinstance(data_json, bytes):
data_json = data_json.decode('utf-8')
data_json = data_json.decode("utf-8")
return pd.read_json(data_json, orient='records')
return pd.read_json(StringIO(data_json), orient="records")
def publish_pricing_model(self,
pricing_function,
model_name: str = 'latest',
metadata: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None):
def publish_pricing_model(
self,
pricing_function,
model_name: str = "latest",
metadata: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None,
):
"""
Store a fitted pricing function object.
@@ -95,17 +103,19 @@ class ModelRegistry:
# store metadata
meta = metadata or {}
meta.update({
'model_class': pricing_function.__class__.__name__,
'model_type': 'pricing_function'
})
meta.update(
{
"model_class": pricing_function.__class__.__name__,
"model_type": "pricing_function",
}
)
meta_key = f"{self.metadata_prefix}{model_name}"
self.redis_client.set(meta_key, json.dumps(meta))
log.info(f"Published pricing model '{model_name}' ({meta['model_class']})")
def get_pricing_model(self, model_name: str = 'latest'):
def get_pricing_model(self, model_name: str = "latest"):
"""Retrieve a pricing function from registry."""
key = f"{self.data_prefix}{model_name}"
model_bytes = self.redis_client.get(key)
@@ -120,21 +130,23 @@ class ModelRegistry:
models = {}
for key in self.redis_client.scan_iter(f"{self.metadata_prefix}*"):
key_str = key.decode('utf-8') if isinstance(key, bytes) else key
model_name = key_str.replace(self.metadata_prefix, '')
key_str = key.decode("utf-8") if isinstance(key, bytes) else key
model_name = key_str.replace(self.metadata_prefix, "")
meta_json = self.redis_client.get(key)
if meta_json:
if isinstance(meta_json, bytes):
meta_json = meta_json.decode('utf-8')
meta_json = meta_json.decode("utf-8")
models[model_name] = json.loads(meta_json)
return models
def publish_prices(self,
prices_df: pd.DataFrame,
model_name: str = 'latest',
metadata: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None):
def publish_prices(
self,
prices_df: pd.DataFrame,
model_name: str = "latest",
metadata: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None,
):
"""Store predicted prices in registry.
Args:
@@ -143,22 +155,19 @@ class ModelRegistry:
metadata: additional info
"""
key = f"{self.prices_prefix}{model_name}"
data_json = prices_df.to_json(orient='records')
data_json = prices_df.to_json(orient="records")
self.redis_client.set(key, data_json)
meta = metadata or {}
meta.update({
'n_products': len(prices_df),
'model_type': 'predicted_prices'
})
meta.update({"n_products": len(prices_df), "model_type": "predicted_prices"})
meta_key = f"{self.metadata_prefix}prices_{model_name}"
self.redis_client.set(meta_key, json.dumps(meta))
log.info(f"Published prices '{model_name}' for {len(prices_df)} products")
def get_prices(self, model_name: str = 'latest') -> Optional[pd.DataFrame]:
def get_prices(self, model_name: str = "latest") -> Optional[pd.DataFrame]:
"""Retrieve predicted prices from registry."""
key = f"{self.prices_prefix}{model_name}"
data_json = self.redis_client.get(key)
@@ -167,9 +176,9 @@ class ModelRegistry:
return None
if isinstance(data_json, bytes):
data_json = data_json.decode('utf-8')
data_json = data_json.decode("utf-8")
return pd.read_json(data_json, orient='records')
return pd.read_json(StringIO(data_json), orient="records")
def health_check(self) -> bool:
"""Check if Redis connection is alive."""
@@ -179,7 +188,9 @@ class ModelRegistry:
except:
return False
def set_session_prices(self, session_id: str, prices: Dict[str, float], ttl: int = 1800):
def set_session_prices(
self, session_id: str, prices: Dict[str, float], ttl: int = 1800
):
"""
Store prices for a specific session.
THIS is the write path for session-aware pricing.
@@ -210,7 +221,9 @@ class ModelRegistry:
if price_str is None:
return None
return float(price_str.decode('utf-8') if isinstance(price_str, bytes) else price_str)
return float(
price_str.decode("utf-8") if isinstance(price_str, bytes) else price_str
)
def get_session_all_prices(self, session_id: str) -> Dict[str, float]:
"""Get all prices for a session."""
@@ -221,6 +234,8 @@ class ModelRegistry:
return {}
return {
(k.decode('utf-8') if isinstance(k, bytes) else k): float(v.decode('utf-8') if isinstance(v, bytes) else v)
(k.decode("utf-8") if isinstance(k, bytes) else k): float(
v.decode("utf-8") if isinstance(v, bytes) else v
)
for k, v in prices_raw.items()
}

128
lib/separability.py Normal file
View File

@@ -0,0 +1,128 @@
"""Utilities for loading separability artifacts and scoring interaction sessions."""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
from dataclasses import dataclass
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Dict, Iterable, List, Sequence
import joblib
import numpy as np
from experiments.ml.arch import featurize_trajectory
DEFAULT_ARTIFACT_DIR = Path("data/separability")
@dataclass
class SeparabilityArtifacts:
scaler: object
classifier: object
states: List[str]
event_transitions: Dict[str, Dict[str, float]]
feature_dim: int
def _normalize_events(raw_events: Sequence[object]) -> List[object]:
events: List[object] = []
for evt in raw_events:
if hasattr(evt, "value") and hasattr(evt.value, "payload"):
events.append(evt.value.payload)
else:
events.append(evt)
events.sort(key=lambda e: getattr(e, "ts", ""))
return events
def _event_transition_distribution(events: Sequence[object]) -> Dict[str, Dict[str, float]]:
counts: Dict[str, Dict[str, int]] = {}
for src_evt, dst_evt in zip(events, events[1:]):
src_name = getattr(src_evt, "eventName", "unknown")
dst_name = getattr(dst_evt, "eventName", "unknown")
counts.setdefault(src_name, {})
counts[src_name][dst_name] = counts[src_name].get(dst_name, 0) + 1
distribution: Dict[str, Dict[str, float]] = {}
for src, dsts in counts.items():
total = float(sum(dsts.values()))
distribution[src] = {dst: val / total for dst, val in dsts.items()} if total else {}
return distribution
def _kl_divergence(p: Dict[str, Dict[str, float]], q: Dict[str, Dict[str, float]]) -> float:
eps = 1e-10
total = 0.0
for src, dsts in p.items():
for dst, prob in dsts.items():
ref = q.get(src, {}).get(dst, 0.0)
total += (prob + eps) * np.log((prob + eps) / (ref + eps))
return float(total)
def load_artifacts(artifact_dir: Path | str = DEFAULT_ARTIFACT_DIR) -> SeparabilityArtifacts:
artifact_dir = Path(artifact_dir)
scaler_path = artifact_dir / "scaler.joblib"
model_path = artifact_dir / "classifier.joblib"
metadata_path = artifact_dir / "metadata.json"
if not (scaler_path.exists() and model_path.exists() and metadata_path.exists()):
raise FileNotFoundError(
f"Separability artifacts not found in {artifact_dir}. Run sim.strong_learner.train first."
)
scaler = joblib.load(scaler_path)
classifier = joblib.load(model_path)
with open(metadata_path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fin:
metadata = json.load(fin)
return SeparabilityArtifacts(
scaler=scaler,
classifier=classifier,
states=list(metadata["reference_states"]),
event_transitions=metadata["event_transitions"],
feature_dim=int(metadata["feature_dim"]),
)
def score_session(
raw_events: Sequence[object],
artifacts: SeparabilityArtifacts,
) -> dict:
events = _normalize_events(raw_events)
if not events:
return {"prob_agent": 0.0, "delta_h": 0.0, "delta_a": 0.0}
reference_mdp = {"states": artifacts.states}
features = featurize_trajectory(events, mdp=reference_mdp, input_dim=artifacts.feature_dim)
scaled = artifacts.scaler.transform(features.reshape(1, -1))
prob_agent = float(artifacts.classifier.predict_proba(scaled)[0, 1])
session_dist = _event_transition_distribution(events)
delta_h = _kl_divergence(session_dist, artifacts.event_transitions.get("human", {}))
delta_a = _kl_divergence(session_dist, artifacts.event_transitions.get("agent", {}))
return {
"prob_agent": prob_agent,
"delta_h": delta_h,
"delta_a": delta_a,
}
def estimate_alpha(prob_agent: float, delta_h: float, delta_a: float, temperature: float = 1.0) -> float:
divergence_mass = delta_h + delta_a
if divergence_mass <= 1e-8:
return float(prob_agent)
ratio = delta_a / divergence_mass
blended = 0.5 * prob_agent + 0.5 * ratio
if temperature <= 0:
return float(np.clip(blended, 0.0, 1.0))
scaled = 1.0 / (1.0 + np.exp(-temperature * (blended - 0.5)))
return float(np.clip(scaled, 0.0, 1.0))
def score_sessions(raw_sessions: Iterable[Sequence[object]], artifacts: SeparabilityArtifacts) -> List[dict]:
return [score_session(events, artifacts) for events in raw_sessions]

View File

@@ -1,8 +1,6 @@
$pdf_mode = 1;
$pdflatex = 'pdflatex -synctex=1 -interaction=nonstopmode -file-line-error %O %S';
$aux_dir = 'build';
$out_dir = 'build';
$use_biber = 0; # force bibtex
$bibtex_use = 2; # run bibtex when needed
$bibtex = 'bibtex %O %B';
$pdf_previewer = 'zathura %O %S';
$clean_ext = 'synctex.gz bbl bcf run.xml fls fdb_latexmk glg glo gls ist blg lof lot out toc';

View File

@@ -42,23 +42,27 @@ EOF
# Process each directory
echo "Concatenating code from source directories..."
# Engine
find "$PROJECT_ROOT/engine" -type d \( -name ".venv" -o -name "__pycache__" -o -name "*.egg-info" -o -name "node_modules" -o -name ".pytest_cache" \) -prune -o -type f \( -name "*.py" -o -name "*.js" -o -name "*.sh" -o -name "*.yml" -o -name "*.yaml" \) ! -name "*.pyc" ! -name "*.pyo" -print | sort | while read -r file; do
add_file "$file"
done
# Backend
find "$PROJECT_ROOT/backend" -type f \( -name "*.py" -o -name "*.js" -o -name "*.sh" -o -name "*.yml" -o -name "*.yaml" \) | sort | while read -r file; do
find "$PROJECT_ROOT/backend" -type d \( -name ".venv" -o -name "__pycache__" -o -name "*.egg-info" -o -name "node_modules" -o -name ".pytest_cache" \) -prune -o -type f \( -name "*.py" -o -name "*.js" -o -name "*.sh" -o -name "*.yml" -o -name "*.yaml" \) ! -name "*.pyc" ! -name "*.pyo" -print | sort | while read -r file; do
add_file "$file"
done
# Experiments
find "$PROJECT_ROOT/experiments" -type f \( -name "*.py" -o -name "*.js" -o -name "*.sh" -o -name "*.yml" -o -name "*.yaml" \) | sort | while read -r file; do
find "$PROJECT_ROOT/experiments" -type d \( -name ".venv" -o -name "__pycache__" -o -name "*.egg-info" -o -name "node_modules" -o -name ".pytest_cache" -o -name ".ipynb_checkpoints" \) -prune -o -type f \( -name "*.py" -o -name "*.js" -o -name "*.sh" -o -name "*.yml" -o -name "*.yaml" \) ! -name "*.pyc" ! -name "*.pyo" -print | sort | while read -r file; do
add_file "$file"
done
# Docker
find "$PROJECT_ROOT/docker" -type f \( -name "*.py" -o -name "*.sh" -o -name "*.yml" -o -name "*.yaml" -o -name "Dockerfile*" \) | sort | while read -r file; do
find "$PROJECT_ROOT/docker" -type d \( -name ".venv" -o -name "__pycache__" -o -name "node_modules" \) -prune -o -type f \( -name "*.py" -o -name "*.sh" -o -name "*.yml" -o -name "*.yaml" -o -name "*.Dockerfile*" \) ! -name "*.pyc" ! -name "*.pyo" -print | sort | while read -r file; do
add_file "$file"
done
# Web/src
find "$PROJECT_ROOT/web/src" -type f \( -name "*.js" -o -name "*.jsx" -o -name "*.ts" -o -name "*.tsx" \) | sort | while read -r file; do
find "$PROJECT_ROOT/web/src" -type d \( -name "node_modules" -o -name ".next" -o -name "dist" -o -name "build" \) -prune -o -type f \( -name "*.js" -o -name "*.jsx" -o -name "*.ts" -o -name "*.tsx" \) -print | sort | while read -r file; do
add_file "$file"
done

View File

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@
(setq TeX-command-extra-options
"-file-line-error -interaction=nonstopmode")
(TeX-add-to-alist 'LaTeX-provided-class-options
'(("report" "12pt") ("article" "12pt") ("acmart" "sigconf" "nonacm" "natbib=false")))
'(("report" "12pt") ("acmart" "sigconf" "nonacm" "natbib=false" "manuscript") ("article" "12pt" "letterpaper")))
(TeX-run-style-hooks
"latex2e"
"preamble"
@@ -16,9 +16,7 @@
"chapters/04-results"
"chapters/05-discussion"
"chapters/06-conclusion"
"../build/concatenated_code"
"acmart"
"acmart10")
(TeX-add-symbols
'("footnotetextcopyrightpermission" 1)))
"article"
"art12"))
:latex)

Some files were not shown because too many files have changed in this diff Show More